Tennis · M25 Ajaccio · 02/07, 12:00
Prediction: Liam Branger vs Sergio Callejon Hernando
Our model (Elo on hard, opponent-adjusted) gives 52% to Sergio Callejon Hernando; the market gives 81% to Sergio Callejon Hernando (odds 1.14).
Over their last 10 matches, Liam Branger sits at 6-4 (W-L), while Sergio Callejon Hernando arrives on a 5-5 run.
68%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Liam Branger 1527 · Sergio Callejon Hernando 1542
| Liam Branger | Sergio Callejon Hernando | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 52% |
| Market | 19% | 81% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Liam Branger | Sergio Callejon Hernando | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 60% (10) | 80% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-0.9 | 1.2-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.8-8.8 | 11-9.6 |
| Aces | 4.3 | 0.8 |
| Double faults | 2 | 1.7 |
| 1st serve % | 67.9% | 67.3% |
| Break % | 59.4% | 44.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.6
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Liam Branger
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07 | Timofey Stepanov M25 Ajaccio · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 24/06 | Alexander Frusina M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 18/06 | Andrea Colombo M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 17/06 | Augusto Mateo Lucarelli M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 17/04 | Robin Bertrand M25 Monastir · ~Hard |
1-2 | 18-18 | L |
| 16/04 | Luca Potenza M25 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 15/04 | Gilberto Ravasio M25 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 14/04 | Justin Lenders M25 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-5 | W |
| 25/03 | Yanis Ghazouani Durand M25 Saint Dizier · ~Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 23/03 | Jannik Opitz M25 Saint Dizier · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Sergio Callejon Hernando
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07 | Vladislav Melnic M25 Ajaccio · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 26/06 | Paul Inchauspe M25 Bakio · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 25/06 | Diego Dedura-Palomero M25 Bakio · ~Hard |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
| 24/06 | Joan Torres Espinosa M25 Bakio · ~Hard |
2-0 | 11-3 | W |
| 23/06 | Carles Rojas M25 Bakio · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-0 | W |
| 14/06 | Lorenzo Bocchi Challenger Parma · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 09/06 | Gianmarco Ferrari Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 08/06 | Lucio Ratti Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 07/06 | Aleksandr Braynin Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 24/05 | Federico Arnaboldi Challenger Vicenza · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Liam Branger vs Sergio Callejon Hernando?
Our model gives 68% to Sergio Callejon Hernando, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.