Tennis · M25 Ajaccio · 02/07, 18:00
Prediction: Hugo Grenier vs Paul Inchauspe
Our model (Elo on hard, opponent-adjusted) gives 71% to Paul Inchauspe; the market gives 46% to Paul Inchauspe (odds 2.00).
Recent form leaves Hugo Grenier with 1 wins and 9 losses over 10 games; Paul Inchauspe has piled up 6-4 in the same span.
57%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Hugo Grenier 1446 · Paul Inchauspe 1600
| Hugo Grenier | Paul Inchauspe | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 29% | 71% |
| Market | 54% | 46% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Paul Inchauspe (rating 1446 vs 1600).
- Paul Inchauspe dominates on serve: 6.4 aces and 41% break avg.
- Paul Inchauspe is in better form: 80% recent wins.
Statistics
| Hugo Grenier | Paul Inchauspe | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 20% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (4) | 80% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.4-1.8 | 1.7-0.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 8.1-12.6 | 13.1-9.1 |
| Aces | 6.3 | 6.4 |
| Double faults | 3.2 | 2.3 |
| 1st serve % | 65.5% | 74% |
| Break % | 29.2% | 41% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.2
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Hugo Grenier
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/06 | Tristan Berard M25 Ajaccio · ~Hard |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 22/06 | Jaime Faria Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 13/06 | Oliver Okonkwo Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 08/06 | Luca Van Assche Challenger Lyon · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 25/05 | Luca Nardi Challenger Chisinau · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 18/05 | Lloyd Harris French Open · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 11/05 | Pierre Delage Challenger Bordeaux · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 24/02 | Dominic Stephan Stricker Challenger Lugano · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 10/02 | Jan-Lennard Struff ATP Rotterdam · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 08/02 | Thijs Boogaard ATP Rotterdam · Hard |
2-1 | 15-16 | W |
Paul Inchauspe
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07 | Adam Lynch M25 Ajaccio · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 27/06 | Oscar Weightman M25 Bakio · ~Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 26/06 | Sergio Callejon Hernando M25 Bakio · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 25/06 | Emile Hudd M25 Bakio · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 24/06 | Iker Urribarrens M25 Bakio · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 23/06 | Lucas Poullain M25 Bakio · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 19/06 | Billy Blaydes M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 18/06 | Cesar Bouchelaghem M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 17/06 | Photos Photiades M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 26/01 | Evan Zhu Challenger San Diego · Hard |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Hugo Grenier vs Paul Inchauspe?
Our model gives 57% to Paul Inchauspe, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.