Tennis · M25 Ajaccio · 03/07, 17:30
Prediction: Paul Inchauspe vs Laurent Lokoli
Our model (Elo on hard, opponent-adjusted) gives 63% to Paul Inchauspe; the market gives 59% to Paul Inchauspe (odds 1.57).
Recent form leaves Paul Inchauspe with 7 wins and 3 losses over 10 games; Laurent Lokoli has piled up 8-2 in the same span.
61%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Paul Inchauspe 1622 · Laurent Lokoli 1529
| Paul Inchauspe | Laurent Lokoli | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 63% | 37% |
| Market | 59% | 41% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Paul Inchauspe (rating 1622 vs 1529).
- Paul Inchauspe dominates on serve: 6.3 aces and 45.5% break avg.
- Paul Inchauspe is in better form: 90% recent wins.
- Note: Laurent Lokoli makes many double faults (4.1/match).
Statistics
| Paul Inchauspe | Laurent Lokoli | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 90% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 90% (10) | 100% (2) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-0.4 | 1.4-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.8-8 | 12.3-10.9 |
| Aces | 6.3 | 2.9 |
| Double faults | 1.9 | 4.1 |
| 1st serve % | 74.5% | 75.8% |
| Break % | 45.5% | 41.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.6
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Paul Inchauspe
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07 | Hugo Grenier M25 Ajaccio · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 01/07 | Adam Lynch M25 Ajaccio · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 27/06 | Oscar Weightman M25 Bakio · ~Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 26/06 | Sergio Callejon Hernando M25 Bakio · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 25/06 | Emile Hudd M25 Bakio · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 24/06 | Iker Urribarrens M25 Bakio · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 23/06 | Lucas Poullain M25 Bakio · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 19/06 | Billy Blaydes M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 18/06 | Cesar Bouchelaghem M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 17/06 | Photos Photiades M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Laurent Lokoli
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07 | Tanguy Genier M25 Ajaccio · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 30/06 | Louis Larue M25 Ajaccio · ~Hard |
2-1 | 16-9 | W |
| 15/06 | Kilian Feldbausch Challenger Royan · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 07/06 | Maxime Janvier Challenger Lyon · Clay |
1-2 | 15-15 | L |
| 25/05 | Mika Brunold Challenger Vicenza · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 24/05 | Ji Sung Nam Challenger Vicenza · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 17/05 | Manuel Mazza Challenger Cervia · Clay |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 13/05 | Federico Agustin Gomez Challenger Tunis · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 12/05 | Ilia Simakin Challenger Tunis · Clay |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 10/05 | Milos Karol Challenger Tunis · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Paul Inchauspe vs Laurent Lokoli?
Our model gives 61% to Paul Inchauspe, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.