Tennis · Challenger Quito · 02/07, 17:00
Prediction: Valerio Aboian vs Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 56% to Valerio Aboian; the market gives 65% to Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves (odds 1.44).
Recent form leaves Valerio Aboian with 7 wins and 3 losses over 10 games; Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves has piled up 3-7 in the same span.
55%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Valerio Aboian 1534 · Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves 1494
| Valerio Aboian | Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 44% |
| Market | 35% | 65% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Valerio Aboian (rating 1534 vs 1494).
Statistics
| Valerio Aboian | Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 40% |
| Win % · Clay | 60% (10) | 44% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-0.9 | 1.1-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.8-9.6 | 10.8-10.5 |
| Aces | 3 | 1.5 |
| Double faults | 3.4 | 1.4 |
| 1st serve % | 62.4% | 68.9% |
| Break % | 43% | 50.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Valerio Aboian
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/06 | Facundo Mena Challenger Quito · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 26/06 | Gonzalo Villanueva Challenger Piracicaba · Clay |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 26/06 | Hernan Casanova Challenger Piracicaba · Clay |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 25/06 | Valentin Basel Challenger Piracicaba · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 14/05 | Juan Manuel La Serna Challenger Cordoba · Clay |
1-2 | 7-16 | L |
| 13/05 | Arklon Huertas del Pino Cordova Challenger Cordoba · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 11/05 | Carlos Maria Zarate Challenger Cordoba · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 07/05 | Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida Challenger Santos · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 05/05 | Pedro Sakamoto Challenger Santos · Clay |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 30/04 | Juan Bautista Torres M25 Lujan · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/06 | Lucas Andrade da Silva Challenger Quito · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 29/06 | Fermin Tenti Challenger Quito · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 22/06 | Mackenzie McDonald Wimbledon · Grass |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 27/03 | Jaime Faria Challenger Sao Paulo · Clay |
1-2 | 10-15 | L |
| 24/03 | Victor Braga Challenger Sao Paulo · Clay |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 12/03 | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo Challenger Santiago · Clay |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 10/03 | Benjamin Torrealba Challenger Santiago · Clay |
2-1 | 17-11 | W |
| 03/03 | Joao Eduardo Schiessl Challenger Brasilia · Clay |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 07/02 | Lautaro Midon ATP Buenos Aires · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 03/02 | Genaro Alberto Olivieri Challenger Rosario · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Valerio Aboian vs Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves?
Our model gives 55% to Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.