Handball · Spain Liga Asobal · 17/10, 19:00

Prediction: Atletico Valladolid vs Caserio Ciudad Real

Team pages: Atletico Valladolid · Caserio Ciudad Real

Prediction summary

Estimated points

62.3Total

Atletico Valladolid32

Caserio Ciudad Real30.3

1X2

68% 32%

Atletico Valladolid Caserio Ciudad Real

Recent form · 10 last

Atletico Valladolid 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

LLWWWWWWWW

Caserio Ciudad Real 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LWWLDLDWWW

Head-to-head

Atletico Valladolid 1–1–1 Caserio Ciudad Real (3 last)

Caserio Ciudad Real33-30Atletico Valladolid
Atletico Valladolid34-30Caserio Ciudad Real
Caserio Ciudad Real34-34Atletico Valladolid

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Atletico Valladolid 1559 · Caserio Ciudad Real 1517

	Atletico Valladolid	Caserio Ciudad Real
Our model	66%	34%
Market	63%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 62.3 points · Bet365 line 62.5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points62.3Atletico Valladolid 32 · Caserio Ciudad Real 30.3

Match keys

Atletico Valladolid is a clear favourite (68% market).

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Atletico Valladolid	Caserio Ciudad Real
Points F\|A (Last 10)	32.4 / 29.6	30.9 / 31.2
Points F\|A (Last 5)	34.4 / 28.4	32.6 / 32.6
Est. result	32	30

Est. total62.3

Line O/U62.5

Diff.0.2

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.50

X9.00

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2.5)1.90

2 (+2.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 62.51.88

Under 62.51.88

Diff.: 0.45 · Est. total: 62.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.50	Bet365 1.50
X	9.00 → 9.00	Bet365 9.00
2	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.3%

Time*	1	X	2
14:13 +3’	1.50	9.00	3.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Atletico Valladolid 1–1–1 Caserio Ciudad Real

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/05/26 Spain Liga Asobal	Caserio Ciudad Real	33-30	Atletico Valladolid
07/12/25 Spain Liga Asobal	Atletico Valladolid	34-30	Caserio Ciudad Real
19/03/24 Spain Copa del Rey	Caserio Ciudad Real	34-34	Atletico Valladolid

Standings · Spain Liga Asobal

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Atletico Valladolid	5	5	0	0	172	142	10
2	Bidasoa Irun	5	5	0	0	176	147	10
3	FC Barcelona	4	4	0	0	173	123	8
4	BM Logrono La Rioja	5	4	0	1	175	172	8
5	Caserio Ciudad Real	4	3	1	0	134	125	7
6	BM Torrelavega	5	3	0	2	153	131	6
7	BM Granollers	4	3	0	1	139	123	6
8	BM Triana	5	2	0	3	162	172	4
9	CMB Sporting Alicante	5	2	0	3	145	169	4
10	Ciudad Encantada	4	1	0	3	129	133	2
11	Ademar Leon	5	1	0	4	172	179	2
12	BM Cangas	5	1	0	4	165	172	2
13	Puerto Sagunto	5	1	0	4	143	160	2
14	BM Nava	5	1	0	4	149	177	2
15	Angel Ximenez-Puente Genil	5	1	0	4	135	168	2
16	Villa De Aranda	5	0	1	4	142	171	1

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Atletico Valladolid	Caserio Ciudad Real
BM Cangas	40-36 W	28-28 D
Villa De Aranda	34-26 W	30-30 D
Ademar Leon	28-27 W	35-33 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 0 L	1 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Atletico Valladolid (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Atletico Valladolid

LLWWWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
11/10	Angel Ximenez-Puente Genil Spain Liga Asobal	33-24	W
02/10	BM Cangas Spain Liga Asobal	40-36	W
27/09	Puerto Sagunto Spain Liga Asobal	37-30	W
19/09	Villa De Aranda Spain Liga Asobal	34-26	W
12/09	Ciudad Encantada Spain Liga Asobal	28-26	W
31/05	BM Nava Spain Liga Asobal	36-35	W
23/05	Ademar Leon Spain Liga Asobal	28-27	W
10/05	Angel Ximenez-Puente Genil Spain Liga Asobal	25-23	W
03/05	Caserio Ciudad Real Spain Liga Asobal	30-33	L
26/04	Bidasoa Irun Spain Liga Asobal	33-36	L

Caserio Ciudad Real

LWWLDLDWWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
09/10	BM Granollers Spain Liga Asobal	34-33	W
02/10	Ademar Leon Spain Liga Asobal	35-33	W
20/09	CMB Sporting Alicante Spain Liga Asobal	35-29	W
13/09	Villa De Aranda Spain Liga Asobal	30-30	D
31/05	BM Granollers Spain Liga Asobal	29-38	L
22/05	BM Cangas Spain Liga Asobal	28-28	D
09/05	Villa De Aranda Spain Liga Asobal	26-32	L
03/05	Atletico Valladolid Spain Liga Asobal	33-30	W
24/04	CMB Sporting Alicante Spain Liga Asobal	31-26	W
18/04	BM Logrono La Rioja Spain Liga Asobal	28-33	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Atletico Valladolid vs Caserio Ciudad Real?

Our model gives 68% to Atletico Valladolid.

How many points are expected in Atletico Valladolid vs Caserio Ciudad Real?

The model estimates 62.3 total points (Atletico Valladolid 32 · Caserio Ciudad Real 30.3).