Handball · Spain Liga Asobal · 16/10, 19:00

Prediction: Ademar Leon vs Villa De Aranda

Team pages: Ademar Leon · Villa De Aranda

Prediction summary

Estimated points

64.7Total

Ademar Leon32.9

Villa De Aranda31.9

1X2 Even — no clear favourite

56% 44%

Ademar Leon Villa De Aranda

The bar shows the win probability, but the expected points are almost even: the model does not lean clearly on either side.

Recent form · 10 last

Ademar Leon 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

LDLLLLLWLL

Villa De Aranda 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WLWLWDLLLL

Head-to-head

Ademar Leon 5–1 Villa De Aranda (6 last)

Villa De Aranda35-33Ademar Leon
Ademar Leon37-32Villa De Aranda
Villa De Aranda25-27Ademar Leon
Ademar Leon30-25Villa De Aranda
Villa De Aranda24-31Ademar Leon
Ademar Leon33-25Villa De Aranda

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ademar Leon 1433 · Villa De Aranda 1460

	Ademar Leon	Villa De Aranda
Our model	56%	44%
Market	49%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 64.7 points · Bet365 line 63.5 · +1.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points64.7Ademar Leon 32.9 · Villa De Aranda 31.9

Match keys

H2H favours Ademar Leon: 5-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Ademar Leon	Villa De Aranda
Points F\|A (Last 10)	32.9 / 34.9	29.5 / 31.7
Points F\|A (Last 5)	34.4 / 35.8	28.4 / 34.2
Est. result	33	32

Est. total64.7

Line O/U63.5

Diff.1.2

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.90

X8.50

22.35

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.90

2 (+0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 63.51.88

Under 63.51.88

Diff.: 1 · Est. total: 64.5

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 14:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.55 → 1.90▼	Bet365 1.90
X	8.50 → 8.50	Bet365 8.50
2	1.85 → 2.35▲	Bet365 2.35

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 6.9%

Time*	1	X	2
13:07 +8’	2.55	8.50	1.85
15:13 +3’	2.00▼	8.50	2.25▲
14:04 +13’	1.90▼	8.50	2.35▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Ademar Leon 5–0–1 Villa De Aranda

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/05/26 Spain Liga Asobal	Villa De Aranda	35-33	Ademar Leon
20/12/25 Spain Liga Asobal	Ademar Leon	37-32	Villa De Aranda
15/02/25 Spain Liga Asobal	Villa De Aranda	25-27	Ademar Leon
22/09/24 Spain Liga Asobal	Ademar Leon	30-25	Villa De Aranda
17/02/21 Spain Liga Asobal	Villa De Aranda	24-31	Ademar Leon
12/09/20 Spain Liga Asobal	Ademar Leon	33-25	Villa De Aranda

Standings · Spain Liga Asobal

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Atletico Valladolid	5	5	0	0	172	142	10
2	Bidasoa Irun	5	5	0	0	176	147	10
3	FC Barcelona	4	4	0	0	173	123	8
4	BM Logrono La Rioja	5	4	0	1	175	172	8
5	Caserio Ciudad Real	4	3	1	0	134	125	7
6	BM Torrelavega	5	3	0	2	153	131	6
7	BM Granollers	4	3	0	1	139	123	6
8	BM Triana	5	2	0	3	162	172	4
9	CMB Sporting Alicante	5	2	0	3	145	169	4
10	Ciudad Encantada	4	1	0	3	129	133	2
11	Ademar Leon	5	1	0	4	172	179	2
12	BM Cangas	5	1	0	4	165	172	2
13	Puerto Sagunto	5	1	0	4	143	160	2
14	BM Nava	5	1	0	4	149	177	2
15	Angel Ximenez-Puente Genil	5	1	0	4	135	168	2
16	Villa De Aranda	5	0	1	4	142	171	1

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ademar Leon	Villa De Aranda
Caserio Ciudad Real	33-35 L	30-30 D
Atletico Valladolid	27-28 L	26-34 L
BM Torrelavega	33-40 L	21-28 L
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 3 L	0 W 1 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ademar Leon

LDLLLLLWLL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
10/10	BM Nava Spain Liga Asobal	36-38	L
02/10	Caserio Ciudad Real Spain Liga Asobal	33-35	L
25/09	BM Cangas Spain Liga Asobal	33-32	W
20/09	Ciudad Encantada Spain Liga Asobal	32-35	L
13/09	Puerto Sagunto Spain Liga Asobal	38-39	L
30/05	Villa De Aranda Spain Liga Asobal	33-35	L
23/05	Atletico Valladolid Spain Liga Asobal	27-28	L
08/05	CMB Sporting Alicante Spain Liga Asobal	32-35	L
02/05	BM Logrono La Rioja Spain Liga Asobal	32-32	D
26/04	BM Torrelavega Spain Liga Asobal	33-40	L

Villa De Aranda

WLWLWDLLLL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
11/10	FC Barcelona Spain Liga Asobal	33-40	L
03/10	BM Torrelavega Spain Liga Asobal	21-28	L
26/09	Bidasoa Irun Spain Liga Asobal	32-39	L
19/09	Atletico Valladolid Spain Liga Asobal	26-34	L
13/09	Caserio Ciudad Real Spain Liga Asobal	30-30	D
30/05	Ademar Leon Spain Liga Asobal	35-33	W
22/05	Angel Ximenez-Puente Genil Spain Liga Asobal	27-28	L
09/05	Caserio Ciudad Real Spain Liga Asobal	32-26	W
02/05	Bidasoa Irun Spain Liga Asobal	26-32	L
25/04	BM Granollers Spain Liga Asobal	33-27	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ademar Leon vs Villa De Aranda?

Our model does not see a clear favourite: the match is very even (Ademar Leon 56% · Villa De Aranda 44%).

How many points are expected in Ademar Leon vs Villa De Aranda?

The model estimates 64.7 total points (Ademar Leon 32.9 · Villa De Aranda 31.9).