Handball · Portugal Liga Andebol · 26/09, 16:00

Prediction: ABC Braga vs SL Benfica

Team pages: ABC Braga · SL Benfica

Prediction summary

Estimated points

62.2Total

ABC Braga29.9

SL Benfica32.3

1X2

27% 73%

ABC Braga SL Benfica

Markets

Under 65.5 points 75%

Recent form · 10 last

ABC Braga 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

DLLLLLWLWW

SL Benfica 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

LLWWLWWLLW

Head-to-head

ABC Braga 1–5 SL Benfica (6 last)

ABC Braga30-35SL Benfica
SL Benfica34-31ABC Braga
ABC Braga34-37SL Benfica
SL Benfica36-31ABC Braga
ABC Braga30-27SL Benfica
SL Benfica34-27ABC Braga

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · ABC Braga 1457 · SL Benfica 1507

	ABC Braga	SL Benfica
Our model	53%	47%
Market	9%	85%

Estimated total (ours) 62.2 points · Bet365 line 65.5 · -3.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points62.2ABC Braga 29.9 · SL Benfica 32.3

Over / Under 65.5Under · 75%recent trend · ~62.3 pts · strength 3

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours SL Benfica (rating 1457 vs 1507).
SL Benfica is a clear favourite (73% market).
H2H favours SL Benfica: 5-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	ABC Braga	SL Benfica
Points F\|A (Last 10)	29.7 / 31.8	31.4 / 31.2
Points F\|A (Last 5)	31.6 / 33	33.8 / 28.4
Est. result	30	32

Est. total62.2

Line O/U65.5

Diff.3.3

Over / Under25% / 75%

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

19.50

X16.00

21.06

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+8.5)1.72

2 (-8.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 65.51.85

Under 65.51.85

Diff.: 3.45 · Est. total: 62.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:02

	Bet365	Best now
1	9.50 → 9.50	Bet365 9.50
X	16.00 → 16.00	Bet365 16.00
2	1.06 → 1.06	Bet365 1.06

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
01:49 +13’	9.50	16.00	1.06

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · ABC Braga 1–0–5 SL Benfica

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/02/26 Portugal Liga Andebol	ABC Braga	30-35	SL Benfica
07/11/25 Portugal Liga Andebol	SL Benfica	34-31	ABC Braga
28/02/25 Portugal Liga Andebol	ABC Braga	34-37	SL Benfica
02/11/24 Portugal Liga Andebol	SL Benfica	36-31	ABC Braga
25/05/24 Portugal Liga Andebol	ABC Braga	30-27	SL Benfica
27/04/24 Portugal Liga Andebol	SL Benfica	34-27	ABC Braga

Standings · Portugal Liga Andebol

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sporting Clube	5	5	0	201	134	15
2	Madeira	5	5	0	168	142	15
3	FC Porto	4	4	0	159	102	12
4	SL Benfica	5	3	2	169	142	11
5	Vitoria SC	5	3	2	157	148	11
6	ABC Braga	4	3	1	125	128	10
7	Povoa Andebol/Bodegao	5	2	3	159	158	9
8	Aguas Santas	5	2	3	141	147	9
9	GC Santo Tirso	5	1	4	135	161	7
10	Belenenses	5	1	4	132	166	7
11	AD Carvalhos	5	0	5	122	170	5
12	AA Avanca	5	0	5	119	189	5

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	ABC Braga	SL Benfica
AA Avanca	27-26 W	38-20 W
Sporting Clube	32-43 L	27-32 L
Povoa Andebol/Bodegao	32-31 W	37-30 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: SL Benfica (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

ABC Braga

DLLLLLWLWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
23/09	GC Santo Tirso Portugal Liga Andebol	34-28	W
19/09	AA Avanca Portugal Liga Andebol	27-26	W
13/09	Sporting Clube Portugal Liga Andebol	32-43	L
29/08	Povoa Andebol/Bodegao Portugal Liga Andebol	32-31	W
23/05	Madeira Portugal Liga Andebol	33-37	L
09/05	Povoa Andebol/Bodegao Portugal Liga Andebol	27-30	L
02/05	Belenenses Portugal Liga Andebol	27-31	L
26/04	Madeira Portugal Liga Andebol	27-30	L
11/04	Povoa Andebol/Bodegao Portugal Liga Andebol	27-31	L
28/03	Belenenses Portugal Liga Andebol	31-31	D

SL Benfica

LLWWLWWLLW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
23/09	AA Avanca Portugal Liga Andebol	38-20	W
19/09	Sporting Clube Portugal Liga Andebol	27-32	L
12/09	FC Porto Portugal Liga Andebol	33-37	L
05/09	Povoa Andebol/Bodegao Portugal Liga Andebol	37-30	W
29/08	Aguas Santas Portugal Liga Andebol	34-23	W
23/05	Sporting Clube Portugal Liga Andebol	22-34	L
09/05	FC Porto Portugal Liga Andebol	32-29	W
02/05	Aguas Santas Portugal Liga Andebol	31-25	W
24/04	Sporting Clube Portugal Liga Andebol	28-40	L
11/04	FC Porto Portugal Liga Andebol	32-42	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in ABC Braga vs SL Benfica?

Our model gives 73% to SL Benfica.

How many points are expected in ABC Braga vs SL Benfica?

The model estimates 62.2 total points (ABC Braga 29.9 · SL Benfica 32.3).

Over or under 65.5 points?

Recent history points to under 65.5 points (75%).