Handball · Portugal Liga Andebol · 26/09, 19:00

Prediction: AA Avanca vs Belenenses

Team pages: AA Avanca · Belenenses

Prediction summary

Estimated points

60.2Total

AA Avanca29.3

Belenenses30.9

1X2

40% 60%

AA Avanca Belenenses

Markets

Over 55.5 points 75%

Recent form · 10 last

AA Avanca 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

DWWLWLLLLL

Belenenses 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LLWLDWLLLL

Head-to-head

AA Avanca 1–5 Belenenses (6 last)

Belenenses37-27AA Avanca
AA Avanca33-31Belenenses
Belenenses33-30AA Avanca
AA Avanca24-28Belenenses
Belenenses34-28AA Avanca
AA Avanca24-32Belenenses

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AA Avanca 1453 · Belenenses 1450

	AA Avanca	Belenenses
Our model	60%	40%
Market	24%	66%

Estimated total (ours) 60.2 points · Bet365 line 55.5 · +4.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points60.2AA Avanca 29.3 · Belenenses 30.9

Match keys

H2H favours Belenenses: 5-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	AA Avanca	Belenenses
Points F\|A (Last 10)	27.1 / 32.9	27.8 / 31.7
Points F\|A (Last 5)	23.8 / 37.8	26.4 / 33.2
Est. result	29	31

Est. total60.2

Line O/U55.5

Diff.4.7

Over / Under75% / 25%

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

13.80

X9.00

21.37

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+2.5)1.95

2 (-2.5)1.75

Line ⓘ

Over 55.51.85

Under 55.51.85

Diff.: 4.25 · Est. total: 59.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 07:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
X	9.00 → 9.00	Bet365 9.00
2	1.37 → 1.37	Bet365 1.37

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.4%

Time*	1	X	2
07:05 +1’	3.80	9.00	1.37

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · AA Avanca 1–0–5 Belenenses

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/02/26 Portugal Liga Andebol	Belenenses	37-27	AA Avanca
18/10/25 Portugal Liga Andebol	AA Avanca	33-31	Belenenses
07/12/24 Portugal Liga Andebol	Belenenses	33-30	AA Avanca
20/11/24 Portugal Liga Andebol	AA Avanca	24-28	Belenenses
23/03/24 Portugal Liga Andebol	Belenenses	34-28	AA Avanca
11/11/23 Portugal Liga Andebol	AA Avanca	24-32	Belenenses

Standings · Portugal Liga Andebol

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sporting Clube	5	5	0	201	134	15
2	Madeira	5	5	0	168	142	15
3	FC Porto	4	4	0	159	102	12
4	SL Benfica	5	3	2	169	142	11
5	Vitoria SC	5	3	2	157	148	11
6	ABC Braga	4	3	1	125	128	10
7	Povoa Andebol/Bodegao	5	2	3	159	158	9
8	Aguas Santas	5	2	3	141	147	9
9	GC Santo Tirso	5	1	4	135	161	7
10	Belenenses	5	1	4	132	166	7
11	AD Carvalhos	5	0	5	122	170	5
12	AA Avanca	5	0	5	119	189	5

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AA Avanca	Belenenses
ABC Braga	26-27 L	31-27 W
FC Porto	20-42 L	25-40 L
Sporting Clube	23-46 L	27-43 L
Vitoria SC	27-33 L	27-24 W
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 4 L	2 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Belenenses (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AA Avanca

DWWLWLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
23/09	SL Benfica Portugal Liga Andebol	20-38	L
19/09	ABC Braga Portugal Liga Andebol	26-27	L
12/09	GC Santo Tirso Portugal Liga Andebol	30-36	L
29/08	FC Porto Portugal Liga Andebol	20-42	L
26/08	Sporting Clube Portugal Liga Andebol	23-46	L
23/05	Arsenal Andebol Portugal Liga Andebol	38-27	W
09/05	Vitoria SC Portugal Liga Andebol	27-33	L
02/05	FC Gaia Portugal Liga Andebol	27-26	W
25/04	Arsenal Andebol Portugal Liga Andebol	34-28	W
11/04	Vitoria SC Portugal Liga Andebol	26-26	D

Belenenses

LLWLDWLLLL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
23/09	Sporting Clube Portugal Liga Andebol	27-43	L
20/09	FC Porto Portugal Liga Andebol	25-40	L
12/09	Povoa Andebol/Bodegao Portugal Liga Andebol	25-28	L
05/09	Aguas Santas Portugal Liga Andebol	28-31	L
29/08	Vitoria SC Portugal Liga Andebol	27-24	W
23/05	Povoa Andebol/Bodegao Portugal Liga Andebol	33-33	D
10/05	Madeira Portugal Liga Andebol	30-32	L
02/05	ABC Braga Portugal Liga Andebol	31-27	W
25/04	Povoa Andebol/Bodegao Portugal Liga Andebol	26-31	L
11/04	Madeira Portugal Liga Andebol	26-28	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AA Avanca vs Belenenses?

Our model gives 60% to Belenenses.

How many points are expected in AA Avanca vs Belenenses?

The model estimates 60.2 total points (AA Avanca 29.3 · Belenenses 30.9).