Handball · France Starligue · 04/10, 17:00

Prediction: USAM Nimes vs Pays d'Aix UC

Team pages: USAM Nimes · Pays d'Aix UC

Prediction summary

Estimated points

64.3Total

USAM Nimes31.3

Pays d'Aix UC32.9

1X2 Even — no clear favourite

64% 36%

USAM Nimes Pays d'Aix UC

The bar shows the win probability, but the expected points are almost even: the model does not lean clearly on either side.

Markets

Over 58.5 points 85%

Recent form · 10 last

USAM Nimes 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LLDDLLWLWW

Pays d'Aix UC 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

WLLWLWWLLW

Head-to-head

USAM Nimes 1–1–4 Pays d'Aix UC (6 last)

USAM Nimes35-37Pays d'Aix UC
Pays d'Aix UC32-26USAM Nimes
Pays d'Aix UC27-27USAM Nimes
USAM Nimes27-29Pays d'Aix UC
Pays d'Aix UC26-29USAM Nimes
USAM Nimes31-32Pays d'Aix UC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · USAM Nimes 1500 · Pays d'Aix UC 1520

	USAM Nimes	Pays d'Aix UC
Our model	57%	43%
Market	60%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 64.3 points · Bet365 line 58.5 · +5.8

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points64.3USAM Nimes 31.3 · Pays d'Aix UC 32.9

Match keys

H2H favours Pays d'Aix UC: 4-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	USAM Nimes	Pays d'Aix UC
Points F\|A (Last 10)	30.5 / 32.7	31.9 / 31.2
Points F\|A (Last 5)	31.2 / 32	32 / 31.2
Est. result	31	33

Est. total64.3

Line O/U58.5

Diff.5.8

Over / Under85% / 15%

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.57

X8.00

23.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.85

2 (+1.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 58.51.88

Under 58.51.88

Diff.: 4.65 · Est. total: 63.15

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 19:43

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.78 → 1.57▼	Bet365 1.57
X	8.00 → 8.00	Bet365 8.00
2	2.70 → 3.30▲	Bet365 3.30

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 6.5%

Time*	1	X	2
09:55 +2’	1.78	8.00	2.70
19:39 +4’	1.57▼	8.00	3.30▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · USAM Nimes 1–1–4 Pays d'Aix UC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/04/26 France Starligue	USAM Nimes	35-37	Pays d'Aix UC
05/12/25 France Starligue	Pays d'Aix UC	32-26	USAM Nimes
30/05/25 France Starligue	Pays d'Aix UC	27-27	USAM Nimes
01/11/24 France Starligue	USAM Nimes	27-29	Pays d'Aix UC
23/02/24 France Starligue	Pays d'Aix UC	26-29	USAM Nimes
22/10/23 France Starligue	USAM Nimes	31-32	Pays d'Aix UC

Standings · France Starligue

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	PSG Handball	4	4	0	132	112	8
2	Nantes	4	3	1	141	117	6
3	Montpellier	4	3	1	148	121	6
4	USAM Nimes	4	3	1	126	126	6
5	USM Saran	4	3	1	114	107	6
6	Pays d'Aix UC	4	2	2	122	124	4
7	Limoges HB 87	4	2	2	135	119	4
8	Chartres Metropole HB 28	4	2	2	114	134	4
9	Selestat Alsace HB	4	2	2	120	128	4
10	Tremblay	4	2	2	138	134	4
11	Caen Handball	4	2	2	106	125	4
12	Toulouse	4	1	3	110	113	2
13	Chambery Savoie	4	1	3	130	138	2
14	Cesson Rennes	4	1	3	113	123	2
15	Saint Raphael	4	1	3	109	123	2
16	Dunkerque	4	0	4	103	117	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	USAM Nimes	Pays d'Aix UC
Montpellier	33-38 L	33-29 W
Cesson Rennes	34-32 W	28-29 L
Selestat Alsace HB	28-33 L	34-32 W
Toulouse	28-39 L	38-31 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 3 L	3 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Pays d'Aix UC (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

USAM Nimes

LLDDLLWLWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
25/09	Dunkerque France Starligue	27-25	W
18/09	USM Saran France Starligue	32-31	W
13/09	Montpellier France Starligue	33-38	L
04/09	Cesson Rennes France Starligue	34-32	W
06/06	Montpellier France Starligue	30-34	L
02/06	Chartres Metropole HB 28 France Starligue	31-33	L
29/05	Dunkerque France Starligue	31-31	D
07/05	Chambery Savoie France Starligue	31-31	D
01/05	Selestat Alsace HB France Starligue	28-33	L
25/04	Toulouse France Starligue	28-39	L

Pays d'Aix UC

WLLWLWWLLW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
25/09	Caen Handball France Starligue	32-25	W
19/09	Cesson Rennes France Starligue	28-29	L
12/09	Nantes France Starligue	28-38	L
05/09	Selestat Alsace HB France Starligue	34-32	W
06/06	Dijon France Starligue	38-32	W
02/06	Istres Provence France Starligue	31-35	L
29/05	Toulouse France Starligue	38-31	W
09/05	Tremblay France Starligue	30-31	L
02/05	Limoges HB 87 France Starligue	27-30	L
24/04	Montpellier France Starligue	33-29	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in USAM Nimes vs Pays d'Aix UC?

Our model does not see a clear favourite: the match is very even (USAM Nimes 64% · Pays d'Aix UC 36%).

How many points are expected in USAM Nimes vs Pays d'Aix UC?

The model estimates 64.3 total points (USAM Nimes 31.3 · Pays d'Aix UC 32.9).