Handball · France Starligue · 04/10, 18:00

Prediction: Toulouse vs Chartres Metropole HB 28

Team pages: Toulouse · Chartres Metropole HB 28

Prediction summary

Estimated points

61.3Total

Toulouse31.9

Chartres Metropole HB 2829.4

1X2

72% 28%

Toulouse Chartres Metropole HB 28

Recent form · 10 last

Toulouse 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

WWLLLWLLLW

Chartres Metropole HB 28 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LLLDWLLWLW

Head-to-head

Toulouse 5–1 Chartres Metropole HB 28 (6 last)

Chartres Metropole HB 2833-32Toulouse
Toulouse41-29Chartres Metropole HB 28
Toulouse31-30Chartres Metropole HB 28
Chartres Metropole HB 2827-31Toulouse
Chartres Metropole HB 2831-34Toulouse
Chartres Metropole HB 2827-33Toulouse

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Toulouse 1510 · Chartres Metropole HB 28 1518

	Toulouse	Chartres Metropole HB 28
Our model	59%	41%
Market	74%	17%

Estimated total (ours) 61.3 points · Bet365 line 62.5 · -1.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points61.3Toulouse 31.9 · Chartres Metropole HB 28 29.4

Match keys

Toulouse is a clear favourite (72% market).
H2H favours Toulouse: 5-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Toulouse	Chartres Metropole HB 28
Points F\|A (Last 10)	30.6 / 30.7	28.5 / 34.4
Points F\|A (Last 5)	28.2 / 28.2	28.8 / 34.2
Est. result	32	29

Est. total61.3

Line O/U62.5

Diff.1.2

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.27

X11.00

25.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-3.5)1.78

2 (+3.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 62.51.88

Under 62.51.88

Diff.: 0.4 · Est. total: 62.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 08:56

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.27 → 1.27	Bet365 1.27
X	11.00 → 11.00	Bet365 11.00
2	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6%

Time*	1	X	2
08:50 +6’	1.27	11.00	5.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Toulouse 5–0–1 Chartres Metropole HB 28

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/04/26 France Starligue	Chartres Metropole HB 28	33-32	Toulouse
19/09/25 France Starligue	Toulouse	41-29	Chartres Metropole HB 28
08/03/25 France Starligue	Toulouse	31-30	Chartres Metropole HB 28
25/10/24 France Starligue	Chartres Metropole HB 28	27-31	Toulouse
03/05/24 France Starligue	Chartres Metropole HB 28	31-34	Toulouse
12/12/23 France Cup	Chartres Metropole HB 28	27-33	Toulouse

Standings · France Starligue

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	PSG Handball	4	4	0	132	112	8
2	Nantes	4	3	1	141	117	6
3	Montpellier	4	3	1	148	121	6
4	USAM Nimes	4	3	1	126	126	6
5	USM Saran	4	3	1	114	107	6
6	Pays d'Aix UC	4	2	2	122	124	4
7	Limoges HB 87	4	2	2	135	119	4
8	Chartres Metropole HB 28	4	2	2	114	134	4
9	Selestat Alsace HB	4	2	2	120	128	4
10	Tremblay	4	2	2	138	134	4
11	Caen Handball	4	2	2	106	125	4
12	Toulouse	4	1	3	110	113	2
13	Chambery Savoie	4	1	3	130	138	2
14	Cesson Rennes	4	1	3	113	123	2
15	Saint Raphael	4	1	3	109	123	2
16	Dunkerque	4	0	4	103	117	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Toulouse	Chartres Metropole HB 28
Cesson Rennes	31-28 W	31-28 W
Montpellier	28-29 L	22-41 L
Saint Raphael	27-36 L	30-37 L
Tremblay	40-35 W	35-30 W
USAM Nimes	39-28 W	33-31 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 2 L	3 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Toulouse (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Toulouse

WWLLLWLLLW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
27/09	Nantes France Starligue	30-29	W
17/09	Selestat Alsace HB France Starligue	24-25	L
11/09	Caen Handball France Starligue	31-32	L
05/09	USM Saran France Starligue	25-27	L
06/06	Cesson Rennes France Starligue	31-28	W
03/06	Montpellier France Starligue	28-29	L
29/05	Pays d'Aix UC France Starligue	31-38	L
08/05	Saint Raphael France Starligue	27-36	L
01/05	Tremblay France Starligue	40-35	W
25/04	USAM Nimes France Starligue	39-28	W

Chartres Metropole HB 28

LLLDWLLWLW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
25/09	Cesson Rennes France Starligue	31-28	W
20/09	PSG Handball France Starligue	26-35	L
11/09	Tremblay France Starligue	35-30	W
04/09	Montpellier France Starligue	22-41	L
06/06	Saint Raphael France Starligue	30-37	L
02/06	USAM Nimes France Starligue	33-31	W
26/05	Tremblay France Starligue	35-35	D
08/05	Limoges HB 87 France Starligue	30-39	L
03/05	PSG Handball France Starligue	20-40	L
24/04	Dijon France Starligue	23-28	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Toulouse vs Chartres Metropole HB 28?

Our model gives 72% to Toulouse.

How many points are expected in Toulouse vs Chartres Metropole HB 28?

The model estimates 61.3 total points (Toulouse 31.9 · Chartres Metropole HB 28 29.4).