Handball · France Starligue · 16/10, 20:00

Prediction: USAM Nimes vs Tremblay

Team pages: USAM Nimes · Tremblay

Prediction summary

Estimated points

66Total

USAM Nimes32.8

Tremblay33.2

1X2 Even — no clear favourite

61% 39%

USAM Nimes Tremblay

The bar shows the win probability, but the expected points are almost even: the model does not lean clearly on either side.

Markets

Over 62.5 points 85%

Recent form · 10 last

USAM Nimes 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DDLLWLWWWL

Tremblay 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WDLLLLWWWD

Head-to-head

USAM Nimes 4–1–1 Tremblay (6 last)

Tremblay36-29USAM Nimes
USAM Nimes29-27Tremblay
USAM Nimes26-25Tremblay
Tremblay28-32USAM Nimes
Tremblay34-34USAM Nimes
USAM Nimes30-27Tremblay

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · USAM Nimes 1527 · Tremblay 1537

	USAM Nimes	Tremblay
Our model	59%	41%
Market	55%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 66 points · Bet365 line 62.5 · +3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points66USAM Nimes 32.8 · Tremblay 33.2

Over / Under 62.5Over · 85%recent trend · ~64.6 pts · strength 2

Match keys

H2H favours USAM Nimes: 4-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	USAM Nimes	Tremblay
Points F\|A (Last 10)	31.5 / 32.3	33 / 33.5
Points F\|A (Last 5)	31.6 / 32.4	33.8 / 30.6
Est. result	33	33

Est. total66

Line O/U62.5

Diff.3.5

Over / Under85% / 15%

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.70

X8.00

22.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.95

2 (+1.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 62.51.95

Under 62.51.80

Diff.: 2.65 · Est. total: 65.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.70 → 1.70	Bet365 1.70
X	8.00 → 8.00	Bet365 8.00
2	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7%

Time*	1	X	2
12:07 +9’	1.70	8.00	2.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · USAM Nimes 4–1–1 Tremblay

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/03/26 France Starligue	Tremblay	36-29	USAM Nimes
13/09/25 France Starligue	USAM Nimes	29-27	Tremblay
11/04/25 France Starligue	USAM Nimes	26-25	Tremblay
06/12/24 France Starligue	Tremblay	28-32	USAM Nimes
02/06/21 France Starligue	Tremblay	34-34	USAM Nimes
28/11/20 France Starligue	USAM Nimes	30-27	Tremblay

Standings · France Starligue

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	PSG Handball	6	6	0	0	198	162	12
2	Nantes	6	5	0	1	210	172	10
3	Montpellier	6	3	2	1	199	172	8
4	Limoges HB 87	6	4	0	2	201	179	8
5	USAM Nimes	6	4	0	2	192	194	8
6	Tremblay	6	3	1	2	197	191	7
7	Pays d'Aix UC	6	3	0	3	194	189	6
8	Caen Handball	6	3	0	3	170	193	6
9	USM Saran	6	3	0	3	171	182	6
10	Chartres Metropole HB 28	6	2	1	3	177	199	5
11	Selestat Alsace HB	6	2	0	4	172	184	4
12	Saint Raphael	6	2	0	4	176	190	4
13	Chambery Savoie	6	1	2	3	190	198	4
14	Toulouse	6	2	0	4	163	171	4
15	Cesson Rennes	6	1	0	5	176	191	2
16	Dunkerque	6	1	0	5	150	169	2

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	USAM Nimes	Tremblay
Pays d'Aix UC	35-33 W	31-30 W
Montpellier	33-38 L	26-26 D
Chartres Metropole HB 28	31-33 L	30-35 L
Chambery Savoie	31-31 D	44-31 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

USAM Nimes

DDLLWLWWWL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
10/10	Limoges HB 87 France Starligue	31-35	L
04/10	Pays d'Aix UC France Starligue	35-33	W
25/09	Dunkerque France Starligue	27-25	W
18/09	USM Saran France Starligue	32-31	W
13/09	Montpellier France Starligue	33-38	L
04/09	Cesson Rennes France Starligue	34-32	W
06/06	Montpellier France Starligue	30-34	L
02/06	Chartres Metropole HB 28 France Starligue	31-33	L
29/05	Dunkerque France Starligue	31-31	D
07/05	Chambery Savoie France Starligue	31-31	D

Tremblay

WDLLLLWWWD

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
11/10	Montpellier France Starligue	26-26	D
02/10	Selestat Alsace HB France Starligue	33-31	W
25/09	Chambery Savoie France Starligue	44-31	W
18/09	Saint Raphael France Starligue	36-30	W
11/09	Chartres Metropole HB 28 France Starligue	30-35	L
05/09	Nantes France Starligue	28-38	L
06/06	PSG Handball France Starligue	31-35	L
03/06	Saint Raphael France Starligue	36-44	L
26/05	Chartres Metropole HB 28 France Starligue	35-35	D
09/05	Pays d'Aix UC France Starligue	31-30	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in USAM Nimes vs Tremblay?

Our model does not see a clear favourite: the match is very even (USAM Nimes 61% · Tremblay 39%).

How many points are expected in USAM Nimes vs Tremblay?

The model estimates 66 total points (USAM Nimes 32.8 · Tremblay 33.2).

Over or under 62.5 points?

Recent history points to over 62.5 points (85%).