Handball · France Starligue · 23/10, 20:00

Prediction: Pays d'Aix UC vs Toulouse

Team pages: Pays d'Aix UC · Toulouse

Prediction summary

Estimated points

62Total

Pays d'Aix UC31.3

Toulouse30.6

1X2

64% 36%

Pays d'Aix UC Toulouse

Recent form · 10 last

Pays d'Aix UC 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

WLWWLLWLWL

Toulouse 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

LLWLLLWWLW

Head-to-head

Pays d'Aix UC 3–3 Toulouse (6 last)

Pays d'Aix UC38-31Toulouse
Toulouse25-29Pays d'Aix UC
Pays d'Aix UC31-29Toulouse
Toulouse33-31Pays d'Aix UC
Pays d'Aix UC34-39Toulouse
Toulouse33-26Pays d'Aix UC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Pays d'Aix UC 1501 · Toulouse 1526

	Pays d'Aix UC	Toulouse
Our model	56%	44%
Market	62%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 62 points · Bet365 line 60.5 · +1.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points62Pays d'Aix UC 31.3 · Toulouse 30.6

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Pays d'Aix UC	Toulouse
Points F\|A (Last 10)	33.4 / 32.1	28.8 / 29.7
Points F\|A (Last 5)	33 / 30.6	28.4 / 28.6
Est. result	31	31

Est. total62

Line O/U60.5

Diff.1.5

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.52

X8.50

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2.5)2.00

2 (+2.5)1.78

Line ⓘ

Over 60.51.88

Under 60.51.88

Diff.: 1.5 · Est. total: 62

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 09:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.65 → 1.52▼	Bet365 1.52
X	8.00 → 8.50▲	Bet365 8.50
2	3.00 → 3.50▲	Bet365 3.50

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 6.1%

Time*	1	X	2
11:27 +49’	1.65	8.00	3.00
22:17	1.75▲	8.00	2.70▼
08:59 +16’	1.52▼	8.50▲	3.50▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Pays d'Aix UC 3–0–3 Toulouse

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/05/26 France Starligue	Pays d'Aix UC	38-31	Toulouse
03/10/25 France Starligue	Toulouse	25-29	Pays d'Aix UC
15/02/25 France Starligue	Pays d'Aix UC	31-29	Toulouse
19/10/24 France Starligue	Toulouse	33-31	Pays d'Aix UC
17/05/24 France Starligue	Pays d'Aix UC	34-39	Toulouse
13/10/23 France Starligue	Toulouse	33-26	Pays d'Aix UC

Standings · France Starligue

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	PSG Handball	7	7	0	0	240	190	14
2	Nantes	7	6	0	1	244	203	12
3	Montpellier	7	4	2	1	234	205	10
4	USAM Nimes	7	5	0	2	228	228	10
5	Limoges HB 87	7	4	0	3	234	214	8
6	Chartres Metropole HB 28	7	3	1	3	204	224	7
7	Tremblay	7	3	1	3	231	227	7
8	Pays d'Aix UC	7	3	0	4	227	223	6
9	Selestat Alsace HB	7	3	0	4	208	217	6
10	Chambery Savoie	7	2	2	3	224	231	6
11	Caen Handball	7	3	0	4	198	235	6
12	USM Saran	7	3	0	4	202	216	6
13	Toulouse	7	3	0	4	198	202	6
14	Saint Raphael	7	2	0	5	207	225	4
15	Cesson Rennes	7	1	0	6	209	227	2
16	Dunkerque	7	1	0	6	175	196	2

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Pays d'Aix UC	Toulouse
USM Saran	39-30 W	25-27 L
Caen Handball	32-25 W	31-32 L
Cesson Rennes	28-29 L	31-28 W
Nantes	28-38 L	30-29 W
Selestat Alsace HB	34-32 W	24-25 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Pays d'Aix UC (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Pays d'Aix UC

WLWWLLWLWL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
18/10	Chambery Savoie France Starligue	33-34	L
08/10	USM Saran France Starligue	39-30	W
04/10	USAM Nimes France Starligue	33-35	L
25/09	Caen Handball France Starligue	32-25	W
19/09	Cesson Rennes France Starligue	28-29	L
12/09	Nantes France Starligue	28-38	L
05/09	Selestat Alsace HB France Starligue	34-32	W
06/06	Dijon France Starligue	38-32	W
02/06	Istres Provence France Starligue	31-35	L
29/05	Toulouse France Starligue	38-31	W

Toulouse

LLWLLLWWLW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
16/10	Saint Raphael France Starligue	35-31	W
10/10	PSG Handball France Starligue	23-30	L
04/10	Chartres Metropole HB 28 France Starligue	30-28	W
27/09	Nantes France Starligue	30-29	W
17/09	Selestat Alsace HB France Starligue	24-25	L
11/09	Caen Handball France Starligue	31-32	L
05/09	USM Saran France Starligue	25-27	L
06/06	Cesson Rennes France Starligue	31-28	W
03/06	Montpellier France Starligue	28-29	L
29/05	Pays d'Aix UC France Starligue	31-38	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Pays d'Aix UC vs Toulouse?

Our model gives 64% to Pays d'Aix UC.

How many points are expected in Pays d'Aix UC vs Toulouse?

The model estimates 62 total points (Pays d'Aix UC 31.3 · Toulouse 30.6).