Handball · France Starligue · 16/10, 20:00

Prediction: Toulouse vs Saint Raphael

Team pages: Toulouse · Saint Raphael

Prediction summary

Estimated points

61.6Total

Toulouse30.4

Saint Raphael31.1

1X2 Even — no clear favourite

64% 36%

Toulouse Saint Raphael

The bar shows the win probability, but the expected points are almost even: the model does not lean clearly on either side.

Recent form · 10 last

Toulouse 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

LLLWLLLWWL

Saint Raphael 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

WWWWLWLLLW

Head-to-head

Toulouse 1–1–4 Saint Raphael (6 last)

Toulouse27-36Saint Raphael
Saint Raphael33-28Toulouse
Saint Raphael36-26Toulouse
Toulouse27-36Saint Raphael
Saint Raphael30-30Toulouse
Toulouse34-29Saint Raphael

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Toulouse 1505 · Saint Raphael 1484

	Toulouse	Saint Raphael
Our model	63%	37%
Market	57%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 61.6 points · Bet365 line 62.5 · -0.9

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points61.6Toulouse 30.4 · Saint Raphael 31.1

Match keys

H2H favours Saint Raphael: 4-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Toulouse	Saint Raphael
Points F\|A (Last 10)	28 / 30.2	33.1 / 31.8
Points F\|A (Last 5)	27.6 / 28.8	29 / 30.8
Est. result	30	31

Est. total61.6

Line O/U62.5

Diff.0.9

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.65

X8.00

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.88

2 (+1.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 62.51.88

Under 62.51.88

Diff.: 0.95 · Est. total: 61.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.65 → 1.65	Bet365 1.65
X	8.00 → 8.00	Bet365 8.00
2	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.4%

Time*	1	X	2
12:14 +2’	1.65	8.00	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Toulouse 1–1–4 Saint Raphael

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/05/26 France Starligue	Toulouse	27-36	Saint Raphael
11/10/25 France Starligue	Saint Raphael	33-28	Toulouse
24/05/25 France Starligue	Saint Raphael	36-26	Toulouse
02/11/24 France Starligue	Toulouse	27-36	Saint Raphael
17/04/24 France Starligue	Saint Raphael	30-30	Toulouse
26/10/23 France Starligue	Toulouse	34-29	Saint Raphael

Standings · France Starligue

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	PSG Handball	6	6	0	0	198	162	12
2	Nantes	6	5	0	1	210	172	10
3	Montpellier	6	3	2	1	199	172	8
4	Limoges HB 87	6	4	0	2	201	179	8
5	USAM Nimes	6	4	0	2	192	194	8
6	Tremblay	6	3	1	2	197	191	7
7	Pays d'Aix UC	6	3	0	3	194	189	6
8	Caen Handball	6	3	0	3	170	193	6
9	USM Saran	6	3	0	3	171	182	6
10	Chartres Metropole HB 28	6	2	1	3	177	199	5
11	Selestat Alsace HB	6	2	0	4	172	184	4
12	Saint Raphael	6	2	0	4	176	190	4
13	Chambery Savoie	6	1	2	3	190	198	4
14	Toulouse	6	2	0	4	163	171	4
15	Cesson Rennes	6	1	0	5	176	191	2
16	Dunkerque	6	1	0	5	150	169	2

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Toulouse	Saint Raphael
Chartres Metropole HB 28	30-28 W	37-30 W
Caen Handball	31-32 L	30-33 L
USM Saran	25-27 L	22-26 L
Cesson Rennes	31-28 W	37-34 W
Montpellier	28-29 L	38-35 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 3 L	3 W 0 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Toulouse

LLLWLLLWWL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
10/10	PSG Handball France Starligue	23-30	L
04/10	Chartres Metropole HB 28 France Starligue	30-28	W
27/09	Nantes France Starligue	30-29	W
17/09	Selestat Alsace HB France Starligue	24-25	L
11/09	Caen Handball France Starligue	31-32	L
05/09	USM Saran France Starligue	25-27	L
06/06	Cesson Rennes France Starligue	31-28	W
03/06	Montpellier France Starligue	28-29	L
29/05	Pays d'Aix UC France Starligue	31-38	L
08/05	Saint Raphael France Starligue	27-36	L

Saint Raphael

WWWWLWLLLW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
09/10	Cesson Rennes France Starligue	37-34	W
02/10	Caen Handball France Starligue	30-33	L
25/09	USM Saran France Starligue	22-26	L
18/09	Tremblay France Starligue	30-36	L
11/09	Dunkerque France Starligue	26-25	W
04/09	Limoges HB 87 France Starligue	31-36	L
06/06	Chartres Metropole HB 28 France Starligue	37-30	W
03/06	Tremblay France Starligue	44-36	W
26/05	Montpellier France Starligue	38-35	W
08/05	Toulouse France Starligue	36-27	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Toulouse vs Saint Raphael?

Our model does not see a clear favourite: the match is very even (Toulouse 64% · Saint Raphael 36%).

How many points are expected in Toulouse vs Saint Raphael?

The model estimates 61.6 total points (Toulouse 30.4 · Saint Raphael 31.1).