Handball · France Starligue · 30/10, 20:00

Prediction: Dunkerque vs Pays d'Aix UC

Team pages: Dunkerque · Pays d'Aix UC

Prediction summary

Estimated points

58.8Total

Dunkerque28

Pays d'Aix UC30.9

1X2

40% 60%

Dunkerque Pays d'Aix UC

Recent form · 10 last

Dunkerque 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

LDLLLLLWLL

Pays d'Aix UC 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

LWWLLWLWLW

Head-to-head

Dunkerque 2–4 Pays d'Aix UC (6 last)

Pays d'Aix UC33-22Dunkerque
Dunkerque25-30Pays d'Aix UC
Dunkerque29-32Pays d'Aix UC
Pays d'Aix UC28-32Dunkerque
Pays d'Aix UC34-30Dunkerque
Dunkerque33-32Pays d'Aix UC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Dunkerque 1424 · Pays d'Aix UC 1523

	Dunkerque	Pays d'Aix UC
Our model	46%	54%
Market	32%	57%

Estimated total (ours) 58.8 points · Bet365 line 57.5 · +1.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points58.8Dunkerque 28 · Pays d'Aix UC 30.9

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Pays d'Aix UC (rating 1424 vs 1523).
H2H favours Pays d'Aix UC: 4-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Dunkerque	Pays d'Aix UC
Points F\|A (Last 10)	26.1 / 29.3	32.8 / 31.6
Points F\|A (Last 5)	24.2 / 27.6	33.8 / 30
Est. result	28	31

Est. total58.8

Line O/U57.5

Diff.1.3

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

13.00

X8.00

21.67

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.5)1.85

2 (-1.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 57.51.88

Under 57.51.88

Diff.: 2.4 · Est. total: 59.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
X	8.00 → 8.00	Bet365 8.00
2	1.67 → 1.67	Bet365 1.67

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 5.7%

Time*	1	X	2
11:41 +35’	3.00	8.00	1.67

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Dunkerque 2–0–4 Pays d'Aix UC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/04/26 France Starligue	Pays d'Aix UC	33-22	Dunkerque
06/11/25 France Starligue	Dunkerque	25-30	Pays d'Aix UC
03/05/25 France Starligue	Dunkerque	29-32	Pays d'Aix UC
10/10/24 France Starligue	Pays d'Aix UC	28-32	Dunkerque
08/03/24 France Starligue	Pays d'Aix UC	34-30	Dunkerque
15/09/23 France Starligue	Dunkerque	33-32	Pays d'Aix UC

Standings · France Starligue

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	PSG Handball	8	8	0	0	282	218	16
2	Nantes	8	7	0	1	285	232	14
3	Montpellier	8	5	2	1	265	230	12
4	USAM Nimes	8	6	0	2	261	260	12
5	Limoges HB 87	8	5	0	3	266	238	10
6	Tremblay	8	4	1	3	265	256	9
7	Pays d'Aix UC	8	4	0	4	259	249	8
8	Caen Handball	8	4	0	4	224	259	8
9	Chartres Metropole HB 28	8	3	1	4	236	257	7
10	Selestat Alsace HB	8	3	0	5	232	243	6
11	USM Saran	8	3	0	5	227	247	6
12	Chambery Savoie	8	2	2	4	253	272	6
13	Toulouse	8	3	0	5	224	234	6
14	Saint Raphael	8	2	0	6	235	267	4
15	Cesson Rennes	8	1	0	7	238	261	2
16	Dunkerque	8	1	0	7	199	228	2

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Dunkerque	Pays d'Aix UC
Selestat Alsace HB	23-21 W	34-32 W
Nantes	24-31 L	28-38 L
USAM Nimes	25-27 L	33-35 L
Chambery Savoie	29-38 L	33-34 L
Caen Handball	24-26 L	32-25 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 4 L	2 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Pays d'Aix UC (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Dunkerque

LDLLLLLWLL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
23/10	Limoges HB 87 France Starligue	24-32	L
17/10	Chartres Metropole HB 28 France Starligue	25-27	L
11/10	Selestat Alsace HB France Starligue	23-21	W
03/10	Nantes France Starligue	24-31	L
25/09	USAM Nimes France Starligue	25-27	L
18/09	Chambery Savoie France Starligue	29-38	L
11/09	Saint Raphael France Starligue	25-26	L
06/09	Caen Handball France Starligue	24-26	L
06/06	Selestat Alsace HB France Starligue	30-30	D
02/06	Limoges HB 87 France Starligue	32-35	L

Pays d'Aix UC

LWWLLWLWLW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
23/10	Toulouse France Starligue	32-26	W
18/10	Chambery Savoie France Starligue	33-34	L
08/10	USM Saran France Starligue	39-30	W
04/10	USAM Nimes France Starligue	33-35	L
25/09	Caen Handball France Starligue	32-25	W
19/09	Cesson Rennes France Starligue	28-29	L
12/09	Nantes France Starligue	28-38	L
05/09	Selestat Alsace HB France Starligue	34-32	W
06/06	Dijon France Starligue	38-32	W
02/06	Istres Provence France Starligue	31-35	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Dunkerque vs Pays d'Aix UC?

Our model gives 60% to Pays d'Aix UC.

How many points are expected in Dunkerque vs Pays d'Aix UC?

The model estimates 58.8 total points (Dunkerque 28 · Pays d'Aix UC 30.9).