Handball · France Starligue · 05/09, 19:00

Prediction: Tremblay vs Nantes

Prediction summary

Estimated points

67.5Total

Tremblay32

Nantes35.5

1X2

23% 77%

Tremblay Nantes

Recent form · 10 last

Tremblay 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WWLWLLWDLL

Nantes 9-0-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWWLWW

Head-to-head

Tremblay 0–6 Nantes (6 last)

Tremblay27-33Nantes
Nantes41-32Tremblay
Nantes38-25Tremblay
Tremblay27-35Nantes
Nantes30-24Tremblay
Nantes25-21Tremblay

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Tremblay 1492 · Nantes 1625

	Tremblay	Nantes
Our model	41%	59%
Market	10%	83%

Estimated total (ours) 67.5 points · Bet365 line 65.5 · +2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points67.5Tremblay 32 · Nantes 35.5

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nantes (rating 1492 vs 1625).
Nantes is a clear favourite (77% market).
H2H favours Nantes: 6-0.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Tremblay	Nantes
Points F\|A (Last 10)	34.1 / 35.7	35.8 / 30.7
Points F\|A (Last 5)	33.6 / 36.8	38.2 / 31.8
Est. result	32	36

Est. total67.5

Line O/U65.5

Diff.2

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

19.00

X14.00

21.14

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+5.5)1.90

2 (-5.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 65.51.88

Under 65.51.88

Diff.: 2.65 · Est. total: 68.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 05:49

	Bet365	Best now
1	9.00 → 9.00	Bet365 9.00
X	14.00 → 14.00	Bet365 14.00
2	1.14 → 1.14	Bet365 1.14

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6%

Time*	1	X	2
05:46 +3’	9.00	14.00	1.14

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Tremblay 0–0–6 Nantes

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/02/26 France Starligue	Tremblay	27-33	Nantes
25/10/25 France Starligue	Nantes	41-32	Tremblay
14/08/25 Club Friendlies	Nantes	38-25	Tremblay
07/06/25 France Starligue	Tremblay	27-35	Nantes
20/10/24 France Starligue	Nantes	30-24	Tremblay
16/08/24 Club Friendlies	Nantes	25-21	Tremblay

Standings · France Starligue

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Caen Handball	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cesson Rennes	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Chambery Savoie	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Chartres Metropole HB 28	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Dunkerque	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Toulouse	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Nantes	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Limoges HB 87	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Montpellier	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	PSG Handball	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Pays d'Aix UC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Saint Raphael	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	USM Saran	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Selestat Alsace HB	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Tremblay	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	USAM Nimes	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Tremblay	Nantes
PSG Handball	31-35 L	31-34 L
Pays d'Aix UC	31-30 W	29-28 W
Toulouse	35-40 L	30-25 W
Limoges HB 87	34-37 L	41-35 W
Selestat Alsace HB	38-34 W	33-32 W
Chambery Savoie	33-36 L	42-32 W
Montpellier	36-35 W	35-32 W
Cesson Rennes	32-31 W	35-26 W
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 4 L	7 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Nantes (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Tremblay

WWLWLLWDLL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
06/06	PSG Handball France Starligue	31-35	L
03/06	Saint Raphael France Starligue	36-44	L
26/05	Chartres Metropole HB 28 France Starligue	35-35	D
09/05	Pays d'Aix UC France Starligue	31-30	W
01/05	Toulouse France Starligue	35-40	L
24/04	Limoges HB 87 France Starligue	34-37	L
17/04	Selestat Alsace HB France Starligue	38-34	W
10/04	Chambery Savoie France Starligue	33-36	L
04/04	Montpellier France Starligue	36-35	W
28/03	Cesson Rennes France Starligue	32-31	W

Nantes

WWWWWWWLWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
06/06	Limoges HB 87 France Starligue	41-35	W
03/06	Cesson Rennes France Starligue	35-26	W
27/05	PSG Handball France Starligue	31-34	L
09/05	Dijon France Starligue	42-32	W
03/05	Chambery Savoie France Starligue	42-32	W
24/04	Istres Provence France Starligue	40-31	W
19/04	Montpellier France Starligue	35-32	W
12/04	Toulouse France Starligue	30-25	W
04/04	Selestat Alsace HB France Starligue	33-32	W
28/03	Pays d'Aix UC France Starligue	29-28	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tremblay vs Nantes?

Our model gives 77% to Nantes.

How many points are expected in Tremblay vs Nantes?

The model estimates 67.5 total points (Tremblay 32 · Nantes 35.5).