Handball · France Starligue · 11/09, 19:30

Prediction: Saint Raphael vs Dunkerque

Team pages: Saint Raphael

Prediction summary

Estimated points

62Total

Saint Raphael33.5

Dunkerque28.6

1X2

80% 20%

Saint Raphael Dunkerque

Recent form · 10 last

Saint Raphael 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

LLWWWWWWWL

Dunkerque 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

LLLLLWDLDL

Head-to-head

Saint Raphael 3–1–2 Dunkerque (6 last)

Dunkerque22-32Saint Raphael
Saint Raphael35-27Dunkerque
Dunkerque30-37Saint Raphael
Saint Raphael27-29Dunkerque
Dunkerque37-33Saint Raphael
Saint Raphael38-38Dunkerque

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Saint Raphael 1557 · Dunkerque 1464

	Saint Raphael	Dunkerque
Our model	72%	28%
Market	78%	14%

Estimated total (ours) 62 points · Bet365 line 59.5 · +2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points62Saint Raphael 33.5 · Dunkerque 28.6

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Saint Raphael (rating 1557 vs 1464).
Saint Raphael is a clear favourite (80% market).
H2H favours Saint Raphael: 3-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Saint Raphael	Dunkerque
Points F\|A (Last 10)	34.7 / 31.2	26.9 / 31.6
Points F\|A (Last 5)	37.2 / 32.8	29.6 / 30.2
Est. result	34	29

Est. total62

Line O/U59.5

Diff.2.5

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.22

X11.00

27.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-4.5)1.88

2 (+4.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 59.51.88

Under 59.51.88

Diff.: 2.7 · Est. total: 62.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 10:49

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.22 → 1.22	Bet365 1.22
X	11.00 → 11.00	Bet365 11.00
2	7.00 → 7.00	Bet365 7.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 5.3%

Time*	1	X	2
10:27 +22’	1.22	11.00	7.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Saint Raphael 3–1–2 Dunkerque

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
01/05/26 France Starligue	Dunkerque	22-32	Saint Raphael
06/12/25 France Starligue	Saint Raphael	35-27	Dunkerque
08/03/25 France Starligue	Dunkerque	30-37	Saint Raphael
16/11/24 France Starligue	Saint Raphael	27-29	Dunkerque
03/05/24 France Starligue	Dunkerque	37-33	Saint Raphael
07/10/23 France Starligue	Saint Raphael	38-38	Dunkerque

Standings · France Starligue

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Montpellier	1	1	0	41	22	2
2	Nantes	1	1	0	38	28	2
3	Limoges HB 87	1	1	0	36	31	2
4	PSG Handball	1	1	0	32	29	2
5	Pays d'Aix UC	1	1	0	34	32	2
5	USAM Nimes	1	1	0	34	32	2
7	USM Saran	1	1	0	27	25	2
8	Caen Handball	1	1	0	26	24	2
9	Cesson Rennes	1	0	1	32	34	0
9	Selestat Alsace HB	1	0	1	32	34	0
11	Toulouse	1	0	1	25	27	0
12	Dunkerque	1	0	1	24	26	0
13	Chambery Savoie	1	0	1	29	32	0
14	Saint Raphael	1	0	1	31	36	0
15	Tremblay	1	0	1	28	38	0
16	Chartres Metropole HB 28	1	0	1	22	41	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Saint Raphael	Dunkerque
Limoges HB 87	31-36 L	32-35 L
Montpellier	38-35 W	27-38 L
Selestat Alsace HB	31-28 W	30-30 D
Pays d'Aix UC	31-26 W	22-33 L
Chambery Savoie	33-36 L	28-32 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 2 L	0 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Saint Raphael (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Saint Raphael

LLWWWWWWWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
04/09	Limoges HB 87 France Starligue	31-36	L
06/06	Chartres Metropole HB 28 France Starligue	37-30	W
03/06	Tremblay France Starligue	44-36	W
26/05	Montpellier France Starligue	38-35	W
08/05	Toulouse France Starligue	36-27	W
01/05	Dunkerque France Starligue	32-22	W
26/04	Selestat Alsace HB France Starligue	31-28	W
17/04	Pays d'Aix UC France Starligue	31-26	W
12/04	PSG Handball France Starligue	34-36	L
05/04	Chambery Savoie France Starligue	33-36	L

Dunkerque

LLLLLWDLDL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
06/09	Caen Handball France Starligue	24-26	L
06/06	Selestat Alsace HB France Starligue	30-30	D
02/06	Limoges HB 87 France Starligue	32-35	L
29/05	USAM Nimes France Starligue	31-31	D
07/05	Istres Provence France Starligue	31-29	W
01/05	Saint Raphael France Starligue	22-32	L
25/04	Chambery Savoie France Starligue	28-32	L
16/04	Cesson Rennes France Starligue	22-30	L
11/04	Montpellier France Starligue	27-38	L
03/04	Pays d'Aix UC France Starligue	22-33	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Saint Raphael vs Dunkerque?

Our model gives 80% to Saint Raphael.

How many points are expected in Saint Raphael vs Dunkerque?

The model estimates 62 total points (Saint Raphael 33.5 · Dunkerque 28.6).