Handball · France Starligue · 12/09, 19:00

Prediction: Nantes vs Pays d'Aix UC

Team pages: Nantes · Pays d'Aix UC

Prediction summary

Estimated points

64.4Total

Nantes33.7

Pays d'Aix UC30.7

1X2

88% 12%

Nantes Pays d'Aix UC

Recent form · 10 last

Nantes 9-0-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWLWWW

Pays d'Aix UC 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

WWLWLLWLWW

Head-to-head

Nantes 4–1–1 Pays d'Aix UC (6 last)

Pays d'Aix UC28-29Nantes
Nantes34-28Pays d'Aix UC
Pays d'Aix UC32-32Nantes
Nantes39-30Pays d'Aix UC
Pays d'Aix UC24-30Nantes
Nantes37-41Pays d'Aix UC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Nantes 1635 · Pays d'Aix UC 1499

	Nantes	Pays d'Aix UC
Our model	77%	23%
Market	91%	5%

Estimated total (ours) 64.4 points · Bet365 line 64.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points64.4Nantes 33.7 · Pays d'Aix UC 30.7

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nantes (rating 1635 vs 1499).
Nantes is a clear favourite (88% market).
H2H favours Nantes: 4-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Nantes	Pays d'Aix UC
Points F\|A (Last 10)	36.7 / 30.7	32.7 / 30.8
Points F\|A (Last 5)	37.4 / 31	34.2 / 32.2
Est. result	34	31

Est. total64.4

Line O/U64.5

Diff.0.1

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.03

X22.00

220.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-8.5)1.88

2 (+8.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 64.51.88

Under 64.51.88

Diff.: 0.95 · Est. total: 65.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 10:51

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.03 → 1.03	Bet365 1.03
X	22.00 → 22.00	Bet365 22.00
2	20.00 → 20.00	Bet365 20.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.6%

Time*	1	X	2
10:21 +31’	1.03	22.00	20.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Nantes 4–1–1 Pays d'Aix UC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/03/26 France Starligue	Pays d'Aix UC	28-29	Nantes
23/11/25 France Starligue	Nantes	34-28	Pays d'Aix UC
24/05/25 France Starligue	Pays d'Aix UC	32-32	Nantes
24/11/24 France Starligue	Nantes	39-30	Pays d'Aix UC
29/03/24 France Starligue	Pays d'Aix UC	24-30	Nantes
15/12/23 France Starligue	Nantes	37-41	Pays d'Aix UC

Standings · France Starligue

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Montpellier	1	1	0	41	22	2
2	Nantes	1	1	0	38	28	2
3	Limoges HB 87	1	1	0	36	31	2
4	PSG Handball	1	1	0	32	29	2
5	Pays d'Aix UC	1	1	0	34	32	2
5	USAM Nimes	1	1	0	34	32	2
7	USM Saran	1	1	0	27	25	2
8	Caen Handball	1	1	0	26	24	2
9	Cesson Rennes	1	0	1	32	34	0
9	Selestat Alsace HB	1	0	1	32	34	0
11	Toulouse	1	0	1	25	27	0
12	Dunkerque	1	0	1	24	26	0
13	Chambery Savoie	1	0	1	29	32	0
14	Saint Raphael	1	0	1	31	36	0
15	Tremblay	1	0	1	28	38	0
16	Chartres Metropole HB 28	1	0	1	22	41	0

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Nantes	Pays d'Aix UC
Tremblay	38-28 W	30-31 L
Limoges HB 87	41-35 W	27-30 L
Dijon	42-32 W	38-32 W
Istres Provence	40-31 W	31-35 L
Montpellier	35-32 W	33-29 W
Toulouse	30-25 W	38-31 W
Selestat Alsace HB	33-32 W	34-32 W
Record vs common	7 W 0 D 0 L	4 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Nantes (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Nantes

WWWWWWLWWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
05/09	Tremblay France Starligue	38-28	W
06/06	Limoges HB 87 France Starligue	41-35	W
03/06	Cesson Rennes France Starligue	35-26	W
27/05	PSG Handball France Starligue	31-34	L
09/05	Dijon France Starligue	42-32	W
03/05	Chambery Savoie France Starligue	42-32	W
24/04	Istres Provence France Starligue	40-31	W
19/04	Montpellier France Starligue	35-32	W
12/04	Toulouse France Starligue	30-25	W
04/04	Selestat Alsace HB France Starligue	33-32	W

Pays d'Aix UC

WWLWLLWLWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
05/09	Selestat Alsace HB France Starligue	34-32	W
06/06	Dijon France Starligue	38-32	W
02/06	Istres Provence France Starligue	31-35	L
29/05	Toulouse France Starligue	38-31	W
09/05	Tremblay France Starligue	30-31	L
02/05	Limoges HB 87 France Starligue	27-30	L
24/04	Montpellier France Starligue	33-29	W
17/04	Saint Raphael France Starligue	26-31	L
10/04	USAM Nimes France Starligue	37-35	W
03/04	Dunkerque France Starligue	33-22	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Nantes vs Pays d'Aix UC?

Our model gives 88% to Nantes.

How many points are expected in Nantes vs Pays d'Aix UC?

The model estimates 64.4 total points (Nantes 33.7 · Pays d'Aix UC 30.7).