Handball · Germany Bundesliga · 11/10, 16:30

Prediction: HC Erlangen vs MT Melsungen

Team pages: HC Erlangen · MT Melsungen

Prediction summary

Estimated points

57.4Total

HC Erlangen28

MT Melsungen29.4

1X2

39% 61%

HC Erlangen MT Melsungen

Recent form · 10 last

HC Erlangen 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LLLLDLWWWL

MT Melsungen 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WLDLWDWWLW

Head-to-head

HC Erlangen 0–3–3 MT Melsungen (6 last)

HC Erlangen26-26MT Melsungen
MT Melsungen32-32HC Erlangen
HC Erlangen25-31MT Melsungen
MT Melsungen32-27HC Erlangen
HC Erlangen31-31MT Melsungen
MT Melsungen32-25HC Erlangen

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · HC Erlangen 1508 · MT Melsungen 1546

	HC Erlangen	MT Melsungen
Our model	55%	45%
Market	25%	64%

Estimated total (ours) 57.4 points · Bet365 line 56.5 · +0.9

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points57.4HC Erlangen 28 · MT Melsungen 29.4

Match keys

H2H favours MT Melsungen: 3-0.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	HC Erlangen	MT Melsungen
Points F\|A (Last 10)	27.8 / 29.1	31.1 / 29.3
Points F\|A (Last 5)	30.2 / 29.6	31.2 / 28.8
Est. result	28	29

Est. total57.4

Line O/U56.5

Diff.0.9

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

13.80

X8.50

21.47

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+2.5)1.85

2 (-2.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 56.51.88

Under 56.51.88

Diff.: 2.15 · Est. total: 58.65

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 17:47

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.40 → 3.80▲	Bet365 3.80
X	8.00 → 8.50▲	Bet365 8.50
2	1.55 → 1.47▼	Bet365 1.47

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 6.1%

Time*	1	X	2
10:27 +30’	3.40	8.00	1.55
17:20 +27’	3.80▲	8.50▲	1.47▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · HC Erlangen 0–3–3 MT Melsungen

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/12/25 Germany Bundesliga	HC Erlangen	26-26	MT Melsungen
12/09/25 Germany Bundesliga	MT Melsungen	32-32	HC Erlangen
26/04/25 Germany Bundesliga	HC Erlangen	25-31	MT Melsungen
02/11/24 Germany Bundesliga	MT Melsungen	32-27	HC Erlangen
01/05/24 Germany Bundesliga	HC Erlangen	31-31	MT Melsungen
16/10/23 Germany Bundesliga	MT Melsungen	32-25	HC Erlangen

Standings · Germany Bundesliga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	SC Magdeburg	8	7	0	1	272	238	14
2	SG Flensburg-Handewitt	7	6	1	0	244	215	13
3	THW Kiel	8	6	1	1	246	228	13
4	Fuchse Berlin	6	5	0	1	201	185	10
5	MT Melsungen	7	4	1	2	218	195	9
6	TSV Hannover Burgdorf	7	4	1	2	205	201	9
7	TVB 1898 Stuttgart	8	4	1	3	244	241	9
8	TBV Lemgo	7	4	0	3	216	220	8
9	Vfl Gummersbach	7	3	1	3	221	215	7
10	HC Erlangen	7	3	1	3	209	208	7
11	Rhein Neckar Lowen	8	3	1	4	230	236	7
12	Frisch Auf Goppingen	7	3	0	4	197	220	6
13	ThSV Eisenach	8	2	1	5	227	243	5
14	HBW Balingen-Weilstetten	6	2	0	4	179	171	4
15	HSV Hamburg	7	1	1	5	220	229	3
16	Bergischer HC	7	1	0	6	197	223	2
17	SG BBM Bietigheim	7	1	0	6	201	232	2
18	HSG Wetzlar	8	0	2	6	242	269	2

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	HC Erlangen	MT Melsungen
SC Magdeburg	28-35 L	37-34 W
TSV Hannover Burgdorf	28-28 D	28-22 W
Frisch Auf Goppingen	30-32 L	31-18 W
TVB 1898 Stuttgart	17-22 L	32-27 W
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 3 L	4 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: MT Melsungen (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

HC Erlangen

LLLLDLWWWL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
04/10	SC Magdeburg Germany Bundesliga	28-35	L
28/09	ThSV Eisenach Germany Bundesliga	28-19	W
20/09	TBV Lemgo Germany Bundesliga	33-28	W
13/09	Bergischer HC Germany Bundesliga	29-28	W
05/09	SG Flensburg-Handewitt Germany Bundesliga	33-38	L
02/09	TSV Hannover Burgdorf Germany Bundesliga	28-28	D
29/08	Frisch Auf Goppingen Germany Bundesliga	30-32	L
07/06	TVB 1898 Stuttgart Germany Bundesliga	17-22	L
29/05	Bergischer HC Germany Bundesliga	26-32	L
23/05	HSG Wetzlar Germany Bundesliga	26-29	L

MT Melsungen

WLDLWDWWLW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
03/10	TSV Hannover Burgdorf Germany Bundesliga	28-22	W
26/09	Rhein Neckar Lowen Germany Bundesliga	28-30	L
20/09	SC Magdeburg Germany Bundesliga	37-34	W
13/09	TVB 1898 Stuttgart Germany Bundesliga	32-27	W
05/09	Vfl Gummersbach Germany Bundesliga	31-31	D
02/09	Frisch Auf Goppingen Germany Bundesliga	31-18	W
27/08	Fuchse Berlin Germany Bundesliga	31-33	L
07/06	TSV Hannover Burgdorf Germany Bundesliga	32-32	D
04/06	Fuchse Berlin Germany Bundesliga	28-39	L
21/05	SC DHFK Leipzig Germany Bundesliga	33-27	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in HC Erlangen vs MT Melsungen?

Our model gives 61% to MT Melsungen.

How many points are expected in HC Erlangen vs MT Melsungen?

The model estimates 57.4 total points (HC Erlangen 28 · MT Melsungen 29.4).