Handball · Germany Bundesliga · 15/10, 19:00

Prediction: HSG Wetzlar vs HC Erlangen

Team pages: HSG Wetzlar · HC Erlangen

Prediction summary

Estimated points

60.6Total

HSG Wetzlar30

HC Erlangen30.6

1X2 Even — no clear favourite

48% 52%

HSG Wetzlar HC Erlangen

The bar shows the win probability, but the expected points are almost even: the model does not lean clearly on either side.

Markets

Over 57.5 points 75%

Recent form · 10 last

HSG Wetzlar 0-2-8 (W-D-L)

LLLLDLLLDL

HC Erlangen 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LLLDLWWWLW

Head-to-head

HSG Wetzlar 3–3 HC Erlangen (6 last)

HSG Wetzlar29-26HC Erlangen
HC Erlangen33-26HSG Wetzlar
HSG Wetzlar21-25HC Erlangen
HC Erlangen22-25HSG Wetzlar
HC Erlangen26-27HSG Wetzlar
HSG Wetzlar26-31HC Erlangen

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · HSG Wetzlar 1428 · HC Erlangen 1523

	HSG Wetzlar	HC Erlangen
Our model	46%	54%
Market	43%	45%

Estimated total (ours) 60.6 points · Bet365 line 57.5 · +3.1

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points60.6HSG Wetzlar 30 · HC Erlangen 30.6

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	HSG Wetzlar	HC Erlangen
Points F\|A (Last 10)	30.4 / 33.3	28.5 / 29.4
Points F\|A (Last 5)	30.2 / 34.4	30.2 / 28.4
Est. result	30	31

Est. total60.6

Line O/U57.5

Diff.3.1

Over / Under75% / 25%

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

12.20

X7.50

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.72

2 (-0.5)2.10

Line ⓘ

Over 57.51.88

Under 57.51.88

Diff.: 3.3 · Est. total: 60.8

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 19:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 2.40▲	Bet365 2.40
X	7.50 → 7.50	Bet365 7.50
2	2.35 → 1.90▼	Bet365 1.90

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 7.6%

Time*	1	X	2
11:52 +24’	1.95	7.50	2.35
18:56 +21’	2.20▲	7.50	2.10▼
19:13 +4’	2.40▲	7.50	1.90▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

Our recommendation on this match 2 odds moves recorded

Go premium to see the odds journey

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · HSG Wetzlar 3–0–3 HC Erlangen

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
23/05/26 Germany Bundesliga	HSG Wetzlar	29-26	HC Erlangen
18/10/25 Germany Bundesliga	HC Erlangen	33-26	HSG Wetzlar
08/06/25 Germany Bundesliga	HSG Wetzlar	21-25	HC Erlangen
17/11/24 Germany Bundesliga	HC Erlangen	22-25	HSG Wetzlar
24/02/24 Germany Bundesliga	HC Erlangen	26-27	HSG Wetzlar
26/10/23 Germany Bundesliga	HSG Wetzlar	26-31	HC Erlangen

Standings · Germany Bundesliga

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	SG Flensburg-Handewitt	8	7	1	0	283	247	15
2	THW Kiel	9	7	1	1	272	247	15
3	SC Magdeburg	8	7	0	1	272	238	14
4	Fuchse Berlin	7	5	0	2	237	222	10
5	TBV Lemgo	8	5	0	3	253	256	10
6	MT Melsungen	8	4	1	3	250	228	9
7	TVB 1898 Stuttgart	8	4	1	3	244	241	9
8	HC Erlangen	8	4	1	3	242	240	9
9	TSV Hannover Burgdorf	8	4	1	3	237	240	9
10	Vfl Gummersbach	7	3	1	3	221	215	7
11	Rhein Neckar Lowen	8	3	1	4	230	236	7
12	Frisch Auf Goppingen	8	3	0	5	222	249	6
13	ThSV Eisenach	8	2	1	5	227	243	5
14	HBW Balingen-Weilstetten	6	2	0	4	179	171	4
15	SG BBM Bietigheim	8	2	0	6	230	257	4
16	HSV Hamburg	8	1	1	6	239	255	3
17	Bergischer HC	7	1	0	6	197	223	2
18	HSG Wetzlar	8	0	2	6	242	269	2

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	HSG Wetzlar	HC Erlangen
TVB 1898 Stuttgart	26-31 L	17-22 L
SC Magdeburg	30-38 L	28-35 L
ThSV Eisenach	31-31 D	28-19 W
TBV Lemgo	27-31 L	33-28 W
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 3 L	2 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: HC Erlangen (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

HSG Wetzlar

LLLLDLLLDL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
08/10	TVB 1898 Stuttgart Germany Bundesliga	26-31	L
02/10	Rhein Neckar Lowen Germany Bundesliga	30-30	D
27/09	HSV Hamburg Germany Bundesliga	32-37	L
20/09	Vfl Gummersbach Germany Bundesliga	33-36	L
13/09	SC Magdeburg Germany Bundesliga	30-38	L
07/09	ThSV Eisenach Germany Bundesliga	31-31	D
03/09	TBV Lemgo Germany Bundesliga	27-31	L
30/08	SG BBM Bietigheim Germany Bundesliga	33-35	L
07/06	SC Magdeburg Germany Bundesliga	30-31	L
04/06	HSV Hamburg Germany Bundesliga	32-33	L

HC Erlangen

LLLDLWWWLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
11/10	MT Melsungen Germany Bundesliga	33-32	W
04/10	SC Magdeburg Germany Bundesliga	28-35	L
28/09	ThSV Eisenach Germany Bundesliga	28-19	W
20/09	TBV Lemgo Germany Bundesliga	33-28	W
13/09	Bergischer HC Germany Bundesliga	29-28	W
05/09	SG Flensburg-Handewitt Germany Bundesliga	33-38	L
02/09	TSV Hannover Burgdorf Germany Bundesliga	28-28	D
29/08	Frisch Auf Goppingen Germany Bundesliga	30-32	L
07/06	TVB 1898 Stuttgart Germany Bundesliga	17-22	L
29/05	Bergischer HC Germany Bundesliga	26-32	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in HSG Wetzlar vs HC Erlangen?

Our model does not see a clear favourite: the match is very even (HSG Wetzlar 48% · HC Erlangen 52%).

How many points are expected in HSG Wetzlar vs HC Erlangen?

The model estimates 60.6 total points (HSG Wetzlar 30 · HC Erlangen 30.6).