Handball · Germany Bundesliga · 17/10, 20:00

Prediction: MT Melsungen vs Bergischer HC

Team pages: MT Melsungen · Bergischer HC

Prediction summary

Estimated points

58.9Total

MT Melsungen30.7

Bergischer HC28.2

1X2

80% 20%

MT Melsungen Bergischer HC

Recent form · 10 last

MT Melsungen 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LDLWDWWLWL

Bergischer HC 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

LWWLLLLLLW

Head-to-head

MT Melsungen 3–3 Bergischer HC (6 last)

Bergischer HC26-29MT Melsungen
Bergischer HC30-23MT Melsungen
MT Melsungen33-28Bergischer HC
MT Melsungen31-26Bergischer HC
Bergischer HC32-31MT Melsungen
Bergischer HC28-27MT Melsungen

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · MT Melsungen 1523 · Bergischer HC 1467

	MT Melsungen	Bergischer HC
Our model	67%	33%
Market	82%	10%

Estimated total (ours) 58.9 points · Bet365 line 58.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points58.9MT Melsungen 30.7 · Bergischer HC 28.2

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours MT Melsungen (rating 1523 vs 1467).
MT Melsungen is a clear favourite (80% market).

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	MT Melsungen	Bergischer HC
Points F\|A (Last 10)	31 / 29.9	28.1 / 30.9
Points F\|A (Last 5)	31.4 / 29.2	27.8 / 31.8
Est. result	31	28

Est. total58.9

Line O/U58.5

Diff.0.4

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.14

X13.00

29.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-5.5)1.88

2 (+5.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 58.51.88

Under 58.51.88

Diff.: 1.45 · Est. total: 59.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.14 → 1.14	Bet365 1.14
X	13.00 → 13.00	Bet365 13.00
2	9.00 → 9.00	Bet365 9.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.5%

Time*	1	X	2
14:50 +27’	1.14	13.00	9.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · MT Melsungen 3–0–3 Bergischer HC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/02/26 Germany Bundesliga	Bergischer HC	26-29	MT Melsungen
18/12/25 Germany DHB Pokal	Bergischer HC	30-23	MT Melsungen
14/12/25 Germany Bundesliga	MT Melsungen	33-28	Bergischer HC
16/02/24 Germany Bundesliga	MT Melsungen	31-26	Bergischer HC
07/10/23 Germany Bundesliga	Bergischer HC	32-31	MT Melsungen
12/02/23 Germany Bundesliga	Bergischer HC	28-27	MT Melsungen

Standings · Germany Bundesliga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	SG Flensburg-Handewitt	8	7	1	0	283	247	15
2	THW Kiel	9	7	1	1	272	247	15
3	SC Magdeburg	8	7	0	1	272	238	14
4	Fuchse Berlin	7	5	0	2	237	222	10
5	TBV Lemgo	8	5	0	3	253	256	10
6	MT Melsungen	8	4	1	3	250	228	9
7	TVB 1898 Stuttgart	8	4	1	3	244	241	9
8	HC Erlangen	8	4	1	3	242	240	9
9	TSV Hannover Burgdorf	8	4	1	3	237	240	9
10	Vfl Gummersbach	7	3	1	3	221	215	7
11	Rhein Neckar Lowen	8	3	1	4	230	236	7
12	Frisch Auf Goppingen	8	3	0	5	222	249	6
13	ThSV Eisenach	8	2	1	5	227	243	5
14	HBW Balingen-Weilstetten	6	2	0	4	179	171	4
15	SG BBM Bietigheim	8	2	0	6	230	257	4
16	HSV Hamburg	8	1	1	6	239	255	3
17	Bergischer HC	7	1	0	6	197	223	2
18	HSG Wetzlar	8	0	2	6	242	269	2

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	MT Melsungen	Bergischer HC
HC Erlangen	32-33 L	28-29 L
Rhein Neckar Lowen	28-30 L	26-27 L
TVB 1898 Stuttgart	32-27 W	29-30 L
Vfl Gummersbach	31-31 D	30-38 L
Frisch Auf Goppingen	31-18 W	29-28 W
Fuchse Berlin	31-33 L	26-37 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 3 L	1 W 0 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: MT Melsungen (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

MT Melsungen

LDLWDWWLWL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
11/10	HC Erlangen Germany Bundesliga	32-33	L
03/10	TSV Hannover Burgdorf Germany Bundesliga	28-22	W
26/09	Rhein Neckar Lowen Germany Bundesliga	28-30	L
20/09	SC Magdeburg Germany Bundesliga	37-34	W
13/09	TVB 1898 Stuttgart Germany Bundesliga	32-27	W
05/09	Vfl Gummersbach Germany Bundesliga	31-31	D
02/09	Frisch Auf Goppingen Germany Bundesliga	31-18	W
27/08	Fuchse Berlin Germany Bundesliga	31-33	L
07/06	TSV Hannover Burgdorf Germany Bundesliga	32-32	D
04/06	Fuchse Berlin Germany Bundesliga	28-39	L

Bergischer HC

LWWLLLLLLW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
02/10	HBW Balingen-Weilstetten Germany Bundesliga	29-28	W
27/09	Vfl Gummersbach Germany Bundesliga	30-38	L
20/09	Fuchse Berlin Germany Bundesliga	26-37	L
13/09	HC Erlangen Germany Bundesliga	28-29	L
05/09	Rhein Neckar Lowen Germany Bundesliga	26-27	L
02/09	SG Flensburg-Handewitt Germany Bundesliga	29-34	L
28/08	TVB 1898 Stuttgart Germany Bundesliga	29-30	L
07/06	Frisch Auf Goppingen Germany Bundesliga	29-28	W
29/05	HC Erlangen Germany Bundesliga	32-26	W
24/05	THW Kiel Germany Bundesliga	23-32	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in MT Melsungen vs Bergischer HC?

Our model gives 80% to MT Melsungen.

How many points are expected in MT Melsungen vs Bergischer HC?

The model estimates 58.9 total points (MT Melsungen 30.7 · Bergischer HC 28.2).