Handball · Germany Bundesliga · 04/10, 15:00

Prediction: SC Magdeburg vs HC Erlangen

Team pages: SC Magdeburg · HC Erlangen

Prediction summary

Estimated points

59.6Total

SC Magdeburg31.6

HC Erlangen28

1X2

86% 14%

SC Magdeburg HC Erlangen

Recent form · 10 last

SC Magdeburg 9-0-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWWLWW

HC Erlangen 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LLLLLDLWWW

Head-to-head

SC Magdeburg 5–1–0 HC Erlangen (6 last)

SC Magdeburg35-31HC Erlangen
HC Erlangen31-31SC Magdeburg
HC Erlangen23-34SC Magdeburg
SC Magdeburg30-19HC Erlangen
SC Magdeburg32-26HC Erlangen
HC Erlangen27-32SC Magdeburg

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · SC Magdeburg 1611 · HC Erlangen 1503

	SC Magdeburg	HC Erlangen
Our model	74%	26%
Market	90%	5%

Estimated total (ours) 59.6 points · Bet365 line 60.5 · -0.9

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points59.6SC Magdeburg 31.6 · HC Erlangen 28

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours SC Magdeburg (rating 1611 vs 1503).
SC Magdeburg is a clear favourite (86% market).
H2H favours SC Magdeburg: 5-0.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	SC Magdeburg	HC Erlangen
Points F\|A (Last 10)	33.9 / 30.5	27.2 / 28.2
Points F\|A (Last 5)	33.6 / 29.4	30.2 / 28.2
Est. result	32	28

Est. total59.6

Line O/U60.5

Diff.0.9

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.05

X20.00

218.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-7.5)1.88

2 (+7.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 60.51.88

Under 60.51.88

Diff.: 0.6 · Est. total: 59.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 08:56

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.05 → 1.05	Bet365 1.05
X	20.00 → 20.00	Bet365 20.00
2	18.00 → 18.00	Bet365 18.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 5.8%

Time*	1	X	2
08:50 +6’	1.05	20.00	18.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · SC Magdeburg 5–1–0 HC Erlangen

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/04/26 Germany Bundesliga	SC Magdeburg	35-31	HC Erlangen
20/09/25 Germany Bundesliga	HC Erlangen	31-31	SC Magdeburg
28/05/25 Germany Bundesliga	HC Erlangen	23-34	SC Magdeburg
10/04/25 Germany Bundesliga	SC Magdeburg	30-19	HC Erlangen
03/08/24 Club Friendlies	SC Magdeburg	32-26	HC Erlangen
18/05/24 Germany Bundesliga	HC Erlangen	27-32	SC Magdeburg

Standings · Germany Bundesliga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	SC Magdeburg	7	6	0	1	237	210	12
2	SG Flensburg-Handewitt	6	5	1	0	212	188	11
3	THW Kiel	7	5	1	1	217	202	11
4	TSV Hannover Burgdorf	6	4	1	1	183	173	9
5	Fuchse Berlin	5	4	0	1	169	154	8
6	MT Melsungen	6	3	1	2	190	173	7
7	Vfl Gummersbach	6	3	1	2	195	186	7
8	HC Erlangen	6	3	1	2	181	173	7
9	TVB 1898 Stuttgart	6	3	1	2	186	185	7
10	Rhein Neckar Lowen	6	3	0	3	171	173	6
11	TBV Lemgo	6	3	0	3	186	193	6
12	Frisch Auf Goppingen	6	3	0	3	170	188	6
13	HBW Balingen-Weilstetten	5	2	0	3	151	142	4
14	HSV Hamburg	7	1	1	5	220	229	3
15	ThSV Eisenach	7	1	1	5	194	214	3
16	SG BBM Bietigheim	6	1	0	5	170	200	2
17	HSG Wetzlar	6	0	1	5	186	208	1
18	Bergischer HC	6	0	0	6	168	195	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	SC Magdeburg	HC Erlangen
HSG Wetzlar	38-30 W	26-29 L
Vfl Gummersbach	33-31 W	22-26 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 0 L	0 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: SC Magdeburg (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

SC Magdeburg

WWWWWWWLWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
30/09	THW Kiel Germany Bundesliga	32-26	W
26/09	SG BBM Bietigheim Germany Bundesliga	33-24	W
20/09	MT Melsungen Germany Bundesliga	34-37	L
13/09	HSG Wetzlar Germany Bundesliga	38-30	W
06/09	HBW Balingen-Weilstetten Germany Bundesliga	31-30	W
03/09	Fuchse Berlin Germany Bundesliga	36-32	W
30/08	Vfl Gummersbach Germany Bundesliga	33-31	W
07/06	HSG Wetzlar Germany Bundesliga	31-30	W
03/06	Vfl Gummersbach Germany Bundesliga	38-35	W
24/05	Rhein Neckar Lowen Germany Bundesliga	33-30	W

HC Erlangen

LLLLLDLWWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
28/09	ThSV Eisenach Germany Bundesliga	28-19	W
20/09	TBV Lemgo Germany Bundesliga	33-28	W
13/09	Bergischer HC Germany Bundesliga	29-28	W
05/09	SG Flensburg-Handewitt Germany Bundesliga	33-38	L
02/09	TSV Hannover Burgdorf Germany Bundesliga	28-28	D
29/08	Frisch Auf Goppingen Germany Bundesliga	30-32	L
07/06	TVB 1898 Stuttgart Germany Bundesliga	17-22	L
29/05	Bergischer HC Germany Bundesliga	26-32	L
23/05	HSG Wetzlar Germany Bundesliga	26-29	L
10/05	Vfl Gummersbach Germany Bundesliga	22-26	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in SC Magdeburg vs HC Erlangen?

Our model gives 86% to SC Magdeburg.

How many points are expected in SC Magdeburg vs HC Erlangen?

The model estimates 59.6 total points (SC Magdeburg 31.6 · HC Erlangen 28).