Handball · Germany Bundesliga · 03/10, 18:00

Prediction: THW Kiel vs Vfl Gummersbach

Team pages: THW Kiel · Vfl Gummersbach

Prediction summary

Estimated points

60Total

THW Kiel30.2

Vfl Gummersbach29.8

1X2

77% 23%

THW Kiel Vfl Gummersbach

Recent form · 10 last

THW Kiel 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WLLWWWWWDL

Vfl Gummersbach 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WWLWLWDLWW

Head-to-head

THW Kiel 3–1–2 Vfl Gummersbach (6 last)

THW Kiel26-34Vfl Gummersbach
Vfl Gummersbach25-25THW Kiel
Vfl Gummersbach40-37THW Kiel
THW Kiel31-25Vfl Gummersbach
THW Kiel36-33Vfl Gummersbach
Vfl Gummersbach24-30THW Kiel

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · THW Kiel 1557 · Vfl Gummersbach 1525

	THW Kiel	Vfl Gummersbach
Our model	64%	36%
Market	79%	13%

Estimated total (ours) 60 points · Bet365 line 60.5 · -0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points60THW Kiel 30.2 · Vfl Gummersbach 29.8

Match keys

THW Kiel is a clear favourite (77% market).
H2H favours THW Kiel: 3-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	THW Kiel	Vfl Gummersbach
Points F\|A (Last 10)	31 / 29.3	31.6 / 29.5
Points F\|A (Last 5)	29.2 / 29.4	32.8 / 30.6
Est. result	30	30

Est. total60

Line O/U60.5

Diff.0.5

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.20

X12.00

27.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-4.5)1.88

2 (+4.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 60.51.88

Under 60.51.88

Diff.: 0.2 · Est. total: 60.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:00

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.20 → 1.20	Bet365 1.20
X	12.00 → 12.00	Bet365 12.00
2	7.00 → 7.00	Bet365 7.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6%

Time*	1	X	2
10:56 +4’	1.20	12.00	7.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · THW Kiel 3–1–2 Vfl Gummersbach

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/02/26 Germany Bundesliga	THW Kiel	26-34	Vfl Gummersbach
23/10/25 Germany Bundesliga	Vfl Gummersbach	25-25	THW Kiel
14/08/25 Club Friendlies	Vfl Gummersbach	40-37	THW Kiel
05/04/25 Germany Bundesliga	THW Kiel	31-25	Vfl Gummersbach
19/12/24 Germany DHB Pokal	THW Kiel	36-33	Vfl Gummersbach
22/11/24 Germany Bundesliga	Vfl Gummersbach	24-30	THW Kiel

Standings · Germany Bundesliga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	SC Magdeburg	7	6	0	1	237	210	12
2	SG Flensburg-Handewitt	6	5	1	0	212	188	11
3	THW Kiel	7	5	1	1	217	202	11
4	TSV Hannover Burgdorf	6	4	1	1	183	173	9
5	Fuchse Berlin	5	4	0	1	169	154	8
6	MT Melsungen	6	3	1	2	190	173	7
7	Vfl Gummersbach	6	3	1	2	195	186	7
8	HC Erlangen	6	3	1	2	181	173	7
9	Rhein Neckar Lowen	6	3	0	3	171	173	6
10	Frisch Auf Goppingen	6	3	0	3	170	188	6
11	TVB 1898 Stuttgart	5	2	1	2	153	157	5
12	HBW Balingen-Weilstetten	5	2	0	3	151	142	4
13	TBV Lemgo	5	2	0	3	152	163	4
14	HSV Hamburg	6	1	1	4	190	195	3
15	ThSV Eisenach	6	1	1	4	166	181	3
16	SG BBM Bietigheim	6	1	0	5	170	200	2
17	HSG Wetzlar	6	0	1	5	186	208	1
18	Bergischer HC	6	0	0	6	168	195	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	THW Kiel	Vfl Gummersbach
SC Magdeburg	26-32 L	31-33 L
TSV GWD Minden	30-34 L	32-22 W
Bergischer HC	32-23 W	38-30 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Vfl Gummersbach (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

THW Kiel

WLLWWWWWDL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
30/09	SC Magdeburg Germany Bundesliga	26-32	L
26/09	SG Flensburg-Handewitt Germany Bundesliga	31-31	D
18/09	ThSV Eisenach Germany Bundesliga	28-27	W
12/09	TSV Hannover Burgdorf Germany Bundesliga	29-26	W
06/09	Frisch Auf Goppingen Germany Bundesliga	32-31	W
03/09	SG BBM Bietigheim Germany Bundesliga	36-28	W
27/08	TBV Lemgo Germany Bundesliga	35-27	W
07/06	TBV Lemgo Germany Bundesliga	31-34	L
03/06	TSV GWD Minden Germany Bundesliga	30-34	L
24/05	Bergischer HC Germany Bundesliga	32-23	W

Vfl Gummersbach

WWLWLWDLWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
27/09	Bergischer HC Germany Bundesliga	38-30	W
20/09	HSG Wetzlar Germany Bundesliga	36-33	W
13/09	Fuchse Berlin Germany Bundesliga	28-33	L
05/09	MT Melsungen Germany Bundesliga	31-31	D
02/09	Rhein Neckar Lowen Germany Bundesliga	31-26	W
30/08	SC Magdeburg Germany Bundesliga	31-33	L
07/06	Rhein Neckar Lowen Germany Bundesliga	28-27	W
03/06	SC Magdeburg Germany Bundesliga	35-38	L
23/05	TSV GWD Minden Germany Bundesliga	32-22	W
10/05	HC Erlangen Germany Bundesliga	26-22	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in THW Kiel vs Vfl Gummersbach?

Our model gives 77% to THW Kiel.

How many points are expected in THW Kiel vs Vfl Gummersbach?

The model estimates 60 total points (THW Kiel 30.2 · Vfl Gummersbach 29.8).