Handball · Germany Bundesliga · 11/10, 15:00

Prediction: THW Kiel vs HSV Hamburg

Team pages: THW Kiel · HSV Hamburg

Prediction summary

Estimated points

62.3Total

THW Kiel32.4

HSV Hamburg29.9

1X2

83% 17%

THW Kiel HSV Hamburg

Recent form · 10 last

THW Kiel 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

LLWWWWWDLW

HSV Hamburg 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LWWLDLLLWL

Head-to-head

THW Kiel 5–1–0 HSV Hamburg (6 last)

HSV Hamburg27-34THW Kiel
THW Kiel27-25HSV Hamburg
THW Kiel38-37HSV Hamburg
HSV Hamburg25-31THW Kiel
HSV Hamburg27-30THW Kiel
HSV Hamburg28-28THW Kiel

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · THW Kiel 1572 · HSV Hamburg 1480

	THW Kiel	HSV Hamburg
Our model	72%	28%
Market	84%	9%

Estimated total (ours) 62.3 points · Bet365 line 62.5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points62.3THW Kiel 32.4 · HSV Hamburg 29.9

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours THW Kiel (rating 1572 vs 1480).
THW Kiel is a clear favourite (83% market).
H2H favours THW Kiel: 5-0.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	THW Kiel	HSV Hamburg
Points F\|A (Last 10)	30.7 / 29.6	32.1 / 32.8
Points F\|A (Last 5)	28.6 / 28.4	32 / 33
Est. result	32	30

Est. total62.3

Line O/U62.5

Diff.0.2

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.12

X15.00

210.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-5.5)1.78

2 (+5.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 62.51.88

Under 62.51.88

Diff.: 0.1 · Est. total: 62.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:56

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.12 → 1.12	Bet365 1.12
X	15.00 → 15.00	Bet365 15.00
2	10.00 → 10.00	Bet365 10.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6%

Time*	1	X	2
10:55 +61’	1.12	15.00	10.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · THW Kiel 5–1–0 HSV Hamburg

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/04/26 Germany Bundesliga	HSV Hamburg	27-34	THW Kiel
13/09/25 Germany Bundesliga	THW Kiel	27-25	HSV Hamburg
31/05/25 Germany Bundesliga	THW Kiel	38-37	HSV Hamburg
11/10/24 Germany Bundesliga	HSV Hamburg	25-31	THW Kiel
03/10/24 Germany DHB Pokal	HSV Hamburg	27-30	THW Kiel
12/04/24 Germany Bundesliga	HSV Hamburg	28-28	THW Kiel

Standings · Germany Bundesliga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	SC Magdeburg	8	7	0	1	272	238	14
2	SG Flensburg-Handewitt	7	6	1	0	244	215	13
3	THW Kiel	8	6	1	1	246	228	13
4	Fuchse Berlin	6	5	0	1	201	185	10
5	MT Melsungen	7	4	1	2	218	195	9
6	TSV Hannover Burgdorf	7	4	1	2	205	201	9
7	TVB 1898 Stuttgart	8	4	1	3	244	241	9
8	TBV Lemgo	7	4	0	3	216	220	8
9	Vfl Gummersbach	7	3	1	3	221	215	7
10	HC Erlangen	7	3	1	3	209	208	7
11	Rhein Neckar Lowen	8	3	1	4	230	236	7
12	Frisch Auf Goppingen	7	3	0	4	197	220	6
13	ThSV Eisenach	8	2	1	5	227	243	5
14	HBW Balingen-Weilstetten	6	2	0	4	179	171	4
15	HSV Hamburg	7	1	1	5	220	229	3
16	Bergischer HC	7	1	0	6	197	223	2
17	SG BBM Bietigheim	7	1	0	6	201	232	2
18	HSG Wetzlar	8	0	2	6	242	269	2

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	THW Kiel	HSV Hamburg
SG Flensburg-Handewitt	31-31 D	34-37 L
ThSV Eisenach	28-27 W	40-33 W
TSV Hannover Burgdorf	29-26 W	28-30 L
Frisch Auf Goppingen	32-31 W	31-32 L
TBV Lemgo	35-27 W	30-34 L
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 0 L	1 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: THW Kiel (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

THW Kiel

LLWWWWWDLW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
03/10	Vfl Gummersbach Germany Bundesliga	29-26	W
30/09	SC Magdeburg Germany Bundesliga	26-32	L
26/09	SG Flensburg-Handewitt Germany Bundesliga	31-31	D
18/09	ThSV Eisenach Germany Bundesliga	28-27	W
12/09	TSV Hannover Burgdorf Germany Bundesliga	29-26	W
06/09	Frisch Auf Goppingen Germany Bundesliga	32-31	W
03/09	SG BBM Bietigheim Germany Bundesliga	36-28	W
27/08	TBV Lemgo Germany Bundesliga	35-27	W
07/06	TBV Lemgo Germany Bundesliga	31-34	L
03/06	TSV GWD Minden Germany Bundesliga	30-34	L

HSV Hamburg

LWWLDLLLWL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
01/10	TBV Lemgo Germany Bundesliga	30-34	L
27/09	HSG Wetzlar Germany Bundesliga	37-32	W
20/09	SG Flensburg-Handewitt Germany Bundesliga	34-37	L
13/09	Frisch Auf Goppingen Germany Bundesliga	31-32	L
05/09	TSV Hannover Burgdorf Germany Bundesliga	28-30	L
02/09	TVB 1898 Stuttgart Germany Bundesliga	34-34	D
30/08	HBW Balingen-Weilstetten Germany Bundesliga	26-30	L
07/06	ThSV Eisenach Germany Bundesliga	40-33	W
04/06	HSG Wetzlar Germany Bundesliga	33-32	W
25/05	Frisch Auf Goppingen Germany Bundesliga	28-34	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in THW Kiel vs HSV Hamburg?

Our model gives 83% to THW Kiel.

How many points are expected in THW Kiel vs HSV Hamburg?

The model estimates 62.3 total points (THW Kiel 32.4 · HSV Hamburg 29.9).