Handball · Germany Bundesliga · 09/10, 19:00

Prediction: TSV Hannover Burgdorf vs SG Flensburg-Handewitt

Team pages: TSV Hannover Burgdorf · SG Flensburg-Handewitt

Prediction summary

Estimated points

65.6Total

TSV Hannover Burgdorf32.1

SG Flensburg-Handewitt33.5

1X2

35% 65%

TSV Hannover Burgdorf SG Flensburg-Handewitt

Markets

Under 64.5 points 70%

Recent form · 10 last

TSV Hannover Burgdorf 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DLDWDWLWWL

SG Flensburg-Handewitt 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

LWLWWWWWDW

Head-to-head

TSV Hannover Burgdorf 0–1–5 SG Flensburg-Handewitt (6 last)

TSV Hannover Burgdorf35-43SG Flensburg-Handewitt
SG Flensburg-Handewitt39-39TSV Hannover Burgdorf
TSV Hannover Burgdorf32-35SG Flensburg-Handewitt
SG Flensburg-Handewitt37-29TSV Hannover Burgdorf
SG Flensburg-Handewitt34-32TSV Hannover Burgdorf
TSV Hannover Burgdorf26-33SG Flensburg-Handewitt

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · TSV Hannover Burgdorf 1500 · SG Flensburg-Handewitt 1605

	TSV Hannover Burgdorf	SG Flensburg-Handewitt
Our model	45%	55%
Market	25%	65%

Estimated total (ours) 65.6 points · Bet365 line 64.5 · +1.1

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points65.6TSV Hannover Burgdorf 32.1 · SG Flensburg-Handewitt 33.5

Over / Under 64.5Under · 70%recent trend · ~62.2 pts · strength 2

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours SG Flensburg-Handewitt (rating 1500 vs 1605).
SG Flensburg-Handewitt is a clear favourite (65% market).
H2H favours SG Flensburg-Handewitt: 5-0.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	TSV Hannover Burgdorf	SG Flensburg-Handewitt
Points F\|A (Last 10)	29.5 / 29.2	35.1 / 32.6
Points F\|A (Last 5)	29 / 28.4	35.4 / 31
Est. result	32	34

Est. total65.6

Line O/U64.5

Diff.1.1

Over / Under30% / 70%

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

13.80

X9.00

21.47

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+2.5)1.88

2 (-2.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 64.51.88

Under 64.51.88

Diff.: 1.3 · Est. total: 63.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 10:56

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
X	9.00 → 9.00	Bet365 9.00
2	1.47 → 1.47	Bet365 1.47

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 5.5%

Time*	1	X	2
10:52 +4’	3.80	9.00	1.47

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · TSV Hannover Burgdorf 0–1–5 SG Flensburg-Handewitt

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/05/26 European League	TSV Hannover Burgdorf	35-43	SG Flensburg-Handewitt
29/04/26 European League	SG Flensburg-Handewitt	39-39	TSV Hannover Burgdorf
04/04/26 Germany Bundesliga	TSV Hannover Burgdorf	32-35	SG Flensburg-Handewitt
15/09/25 Germany Bundesliga	SG Flensburg-Handewitt	37-29	TSV Hannover Burgdorf
01/06/25 Germany Bundesliga	SG Flensburg-Handewitt	34-32	TSV Hannover Burgdorf
13/11/24 Germany DHB Pokal	TSV Hannover Burgdorf	26-33	SG Flensburg-Handewitt

Standings · Germany Bundesliga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	SC Magdeburg	8	7	0	1	272	238	14
2	SG Flensburg-Handewitt	7	6	1	0	244	215	13
3	THW Kiel	8	6	1	1	246	228	13
4	Fuchse Berlin	6	5	0	1	201	185	10
5	MT Melsungen	7	4	1	2	218	195	9
6	TSV Hannover Burgdorf	7	4	1	2	205	201	9
7	TBV Lemgo	7	4	0	3	216	220	8
8	Vfl Gummersbach	7	3	1	3	221	215	7
9	HC Erlangen	7	3	1	3	209	208	7
10	Rhein Neckar Lowen	7	3	1	3	201	203	7
10	TVB 1898 Stuttgart	7	3	1	3	213	215	7
12	Frisch Auf Goppingen	7	3	0	4	197	220	6
13	HBW Balingen-Weilstetten	6	2	0	4	179	171	4
14	HSV Hamburg	7	1	1	5	220	229	3
15	ThSV Eisenach	7	1	1	5	194	214	3
16	HSG Wetzlar	7	0	2	5	216	238	2
17	Bergischer HC	7	1	0	6	197	223	2
18	SG BBM Bietigheim	7	1	0	6	201	232	2

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	TSV Hannover Burgdorf	SG Flensburg-Handewitt
Frisch Auf Goppingen	36-28 W	32-27 W
THW Kiel	26-29 L	31-31 D
HSV Hamburg	30-28 W	37-34 W
HC Erlangen	28-28 D	38-33 W
Fuchse Berlin	30-30 D	38-43 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 1 L	3 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: SG Flensburg-Handewitt (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

TSV Hannover Burgdorf

DLDWDWLWWL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
03/10	MT Melsungen Germany Bundesliga	22-28	L
27/09	Frisch Auf Goppingen Germany Bundesliga	36-28	W
19/09	SG BBM Bietigheim Germany Bundesliga	31-29	W
12/09	THW Kiel Germany Bundesliga	26-29	L
05/09	HSV Hamburg Germany Bundesliga	30-28	W
02/09	HC Erlangen Germany Bundesliga	28-28	D
30/08	Rhein Neckar Lowen Germany Bundesliga	32-31	W
07/06	MT Melsungen Germany Bundesliga	32-32	D
03/06	Rhein Neckar Lowen Germany Bundesliga	28-29	L
21/05	Fuchse Berlin Germany Bundesliga	30-30	D

SG Flensburg-Handewitt

LWLWWWWWDW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
03/10	Frisch Auf Goppingen Germany Bundesliga	32-27	W
26/09	THW Kiel Germany Bundesliga	31-31	D
20/09	HSV Hamburg Germany Bundesliga	37-34	W
10/09	TBV Lemgo Germany Bundesliga	39-30	W
05/09	HC Erlangen Germany Bundesliga	38-33	W
02/09	Bergischer HC Germany Bundesliga	34-29	W
28/08	ThSV Eisenach Germany Bundesliga	33-31	W
07/06	Fuchse Berlin Germany Bundesliga	38-43	L
04/06	ThSV Eisenach Germany Bundesliga	36-31	W
24/05	TVB 1898 Stuttgart Germany Bundesliga	33-37	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in TSV Hannover Burgdorf vs SG Flensburg-Handewitt?

Our model gives 65% to SG Flensburg-Handewitt.

How many points are expected in TSV Hannover Burgdorf vs SG Flensburg-Handewitt?

The model estimates 65.6 total points (TSV Hannover Burgdorf 32.1 · SG Flensburg-Handewitt 33.5).

Over or under 64.5 points?

Recent history points to under 64.5 points (70%).