Handball · Germany Bundesliga · 01/10, 19:00

Prediction: TBV Lemgo vs HSV Hamburg

Team pages: TBV Lemgo · HSV Hamburg

Prediction summary

Estimated points

65.1Total

TBV Lemgo33

HSV Hamburg32.1

1X2

71% 29%

TBV Lemgo HSV Hamburg

Recent form · 10 last

TBV Lemgo 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

LLWWWLWWLL

HSV Hamburg 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LLWWLDLLLW

Head-to-head

TBV Lemgo 2–2–2 HSV Hamburg (6 last)

TBV Lemgo39-32HSV Hamburg
HSV Hamburg35-35TBV Lemgo
TBV Lemgo41-29HSV Hamburg
HSV Hamburg30-26TBV Lemgo
TBV Lemgo34-34HSV Hamburg
HSV Hamburg37-33TBV Lemgo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · TBV Lemgo 1493 · HSV Hamburg 1488

	TBV Lemgo	HSV Hamburg
Our model	61%	39%
Market	71%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 65.1 points · Bet365 line 59.5 · +5.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points65.1TBV Lemgo 33 · HSV Hamburg 32.1

Match keys

TBV Lemgo is a clear favourite (71% market).

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	TBV Lemgo	HSV Hamburg
Points F\|A (Last 10)	31.2 / 32.6	31.9 / 33.5
Points F\|A (Last 5)	30.4 / 32.6	32.8 / 33
Est. result	33	32

Est. total65.1

Line O/U59.5

Diff.5.6

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.32

X9.50

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-3.5)1.90

2 (+3.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 59.51.88

Under 59.51.88

Diff.: 5.1 · Est. total: 64.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 09:55

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.32 → 1.32	Bet365 1.32
X	9.50 → 9.50	Bet365 9.50
2	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.3%

Time*	1	X	2
09:26 +29’	1.32	9.50	4.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · TBV Lemgo 2–2–2 HSV Hamburg

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
26/02/26 Germany Bundesliga	TBV Lemgo	39-32	HSV Hamburg
19/09/25 Germany Bundesliga	HSV Hamburg	35-35	TBV Lemgo
17/04/25 Germany Bundesliga	TBV Lemgo	41-29	HSV Hamburg
28/09/24 Germany Bundesliga	HSV Hamburg	30-26	TBV Lemgo
23/12/23 Germany Bundesliga	TBV Lemgo	34-34	HSV Hamburg
29/09/23 Germany Bundesliga	HSV Hamburg	37-33	TBV Lemgo

Standings · Germany Bundesliga

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	SG Flensburg-Handewitt	6	5	1	0	212	188	11
2	THW Kiel	6	5	1	0	191	170	11
3	SC Magdeburg	6	5	0	1	205	184	10
4	TSV Hannover Burgdorf	6	4	1	1	183	173	9
5	Fuchse Berlin	5	4	0	1	169	154	8
6	MT Melsungen	6	3	1	2	190	173	7
7	Vfl Gummersbach	6	3	1	2	195	186	7
8	HC Erlangen	6	3	1	2	181	173	7
9	Rhein Neckar Lowen	6	3	0	3	171	173	6
10	Frisch Auf Goppingen	6	3	0	3	170	188	6
11	TVB 1898 Stuttgart	5	2	1	2	153	157	5
12	HBW Balingen-Weilstetten	5	2	0	3	151	142	4
13	TBV Lemgo	5	2	0	3	152	163	4
14	HSV Hamburg	6	1	1	4	190	195	3
15	ThSV Eisenach	6	1	1	4	166	181	3
16	SG BBM Bietigheim	6	1	0	5	170	200	2
17	HSG Wetzlar	6	0	1	5	186	208	1
18	Bergischer HC	6	0	0	6	168	195	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	TBV Lemgo	HSV Hamburg
SG Flensburg-Handewitt	30-39 L	34-37 L
HSG Wetzlar	31-27 W	37-32 W
ThSV Eisenach	38-34 W	40-33 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: HSV Hamburg (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

TBV Lemgo

LLWWWLWWLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
20/09	HC Erlangen Germany Bundesliga	28-33	L
10/09	SG Flensburg-Handewitt Germany Bundesliga	30-39	L
06/09	SG BBM Bietigheim Germany Bundesliga	36-29	W
03/09	HSG Wetzlar Germany Bundesliga	31-27	W
27/08	THW Kiel Germany Bundesliga	27-35	L
07/06	THW Kiel Germany Bundesliga	34-31	W
03/06	SC DHFK Leipzig Germany Bundesliga	30-28	W
22/05	ThSV Eisenach Germany Bundesliga	38-34	W
09/05	SG Flensburg-Handewitt Germany Bundesliga	30-38	L
01/05	TSV GWD Minden Germany Bundesliga	28-32	L

HSV Hamburg

LLWWLDLLLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
27/09	HSG Wetzlar Germany Bundesliga	37-32	W
20/09	SG Flensburg-Handewitt Germany Bundesliga	34-37	L
13/09	Frisch Auf Goppingen Germany Bundesliga	31-32	L
05/09	TSV Hannover Burgdorf Germany Bundesliga	28-30	L
02/09	TVB 1898 Stuttgart Germany Bundesliga	34-34	D
30/08	HBW Balingen-Weilstetten Germany Bundesliga	26-30	L
07/06	ThSV Eisenach Germany Bundesliga	40-33	W
04/06	HSG Wetzlar Germany Bundesliga	33-32	W
25/05	Frisch Auf Goppingen Germany Bundesliga	28-34	L
10/05	SC Magdeburg Germany Bundesliga	28-41	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in TBV Lemgo vs HSV Hamburg?

Our model gives 71% to TBV Lemgo.

How many points are expected in TBV Lemgo vs HSV Hamburg?

The model estimates 65.1 total points (TBV Lemgo 33 · HSV Hamburg 32.1).