Handball · Germany Bundesliga · 15/10, 19:00

Prediction: THW Kiel vs Rhein Neckar Lowen

Team pages: THW Kiel · Rhein Neckar Lowen

Prediction summary

Estimated points

57.5Total

THW Kiel30.1

Rhein Neckar Lowen27.4

1X2

79% 21%

THW Kiel Rhein Neckar Lowen

Recent form · 10 last

THW Kiel 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

LWWWWWDLWW

Rhein Neckar Lowen 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WLLLWWLWDL

Head-to-head

THW Kiel 2–2–2 Rhein Neckar Lowen (6 last)

Rhein Neckar Lowen27-28THW Kiel
THW Kiel31-31Rhein Neckar Lowen
THW Kiel28-28Rhein Neckar Lowen
THW Kiel29-24Rhein Neckar Lowen
Rhein Neckar Lowen32-27THW Kiel
THW Kiel26-30Rhein Neckar Lowen

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · THW Kiel 1575 · Rhein Neckar Lowen 1479

	THW Kiel	Rhein Neckar Lowen
Our model	72%	28%
Market	77%	14%

Estimated total (ours) 57.5 points · Bet365 line 58.5 · -1

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points57.5THW Kiel 30.1 · Rhein Neckar Lowen 27.4

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours THW Kiel (rating 1575 vs 1479).
THW Kiel is a clear favourite (79% market).

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	THW Kiel	Rhein Neckar Lowen
Points F\|A (Last 10)	30.3 / 28.1	28.6 / 29.2
Points F\|A (Last 5)	28 / 27	29.2 / 29.4
Est. result	30	27

Est. total57.5

Line O/U58.5

Diff.1

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.22

X11.00

26.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-4.5)1.88

2 (+4.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 58.51.88

Under 58.51.88

Diff.: 0.4 · Est. total: 58.1

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 11:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.20 → 1.22▲	Bet365 1.22
X	12.00 → 11.00▼	Bet365 11.00
2	7.00 → 6.50▼	Bet365 6.50

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 6.4%

Time*	1	X	2
11:51 +24’	1.20	12.00	7.00
14:06 +10’	1.22▲	11.00▼	7.00
11:10 +7’	1.22	11.00	6.50▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · THW Kiel 2–2–2 Rhein Neckar Lowen

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/02/26 Germany Bundesliga	Rhein Neckar Lowen	27-28	THW Kiel
05/10/25 Germany Bundesliga	THW Kiel	31-31	Rhein Neckar Lowen
12/04/25 Germany DHB Pokal	THW Kiel	28-28	Rhein Neckar Lowen
09/03/25 Germany Bundesliga	THW Kiel	29-24	Rhein Neckar Lowen
05/09/24 Germany Bundesliga	Rhein Neckar Lowen	32-27	THW Kiel
16/05/24 Germany Bundesliga	THW Kiel	26-30	Rhein Neckar Lowen

Standings · Germany Bundesliga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	SG Flensburg-Handewitt	8	7	1	0	283	247	15
2	THW Kiel	9	7	1	1	272	247	15
3	SC Magdeburg	8	7	0	1	272	238	14
4	Fuchse Berlin	7	5	0	2	237	222	10
5	TBV Lemgo	8	5	0	3	253	256	10
6	MT Melsungen	8	4	1	3	250	228	9
7	TVB 1898 Stuttgart	8	4	1	3	244	241	9
8	HC Erlangen	8	4	1	3	242	240	9
9	TSV Hannover Burgdorf	8	4	1	3	237	240	9
10	Vfl Gummersbach	7	3	1	3	221	215	7
11	Rhein Neckar Lowen	8	3	1	4	230	236	7
12	Frisch Auf Goppingen	8	3	0	5	222	249	6
13	ThSV Eisenach	8	2	1	5	227	243	5
14	HBW Balingen-Weilstetten	6	2	0	4	179	171	4
15	SG BBM Bietigheim	8	2	0	6	230	257	4
16	HSV Hamburg	8	1	1	6	239	255	3
17	Bergischer HC	7	1	0	6	197	223	2
18	HSG Wetzlar	8	0	2	6	242	269	2

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	THW Kiel	Rhein Neckar Lowen
Vfl Gummersbach	29-26 W	26-31 L
ThSV Eisenach	28-27 W	29-33 L
TSV Hannover Burgdorf	29-26 W	31-32 L
Frisch Auf Goppingen	32-31 W	28-29 L
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 0 L	0 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: THW Kiel (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

THW Kiel

LWWWWWDLWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
11/10	HSV Hamburg Germany Bundesliga	26-19	W
03/10	Vfl Gummersbach Germany Bundesliga	29-26	W
30/09	SC Magdeburg Germany Bundesliga	26-32	L
26/09	SG Flensburg-Handewitt Germany Bundesliga	31-31	D
18/09	ThSV Eisenach Germany Bundesliga	28-27	W
12/09	TSV Hannover Burgdorf Germany Bundesliga	29-26	W
06/09	Frisch Auf Goppingen Germany Bundesliga	32-31	W
03/09	SG BBM Bietigheim Germany Bundesliga	36-28	W
27/08	TBV Lemgo Germany Bundesliga	35-27	W
07/06	TBV Lemgo Germany Bundesliga	31-34	L

Rhein Neckar Lowen

WLLLWWLWDL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
08/10	ThSV Eisenach Germany Bundesliga	29-33	L
02/10	HSG Wetzlar Germany Bundesliga	30-30	D
26/09	MT Melsungen Germany Bundesliga	30-28	W
17/09	Frisch Auf Goppingen Germany Bundesliga	28-29	L
11/09	HBW Balingen-Weilstetten Germany Bundesliga	29-27	W
05/09	Bergischer HC Germany Bundesliga	27-26	W
02/09	Vfl Gummersbach Germany Bundesliga	26-31	L
30/08	TSV Hannover Burgdorf Germany Bundesliga	31-32	L
07/06	Vfl Gummersbach Germany Bundesliga	27-28	L
03/06	TSV Hannover Burgdorf Germany Bundesliga	29-28	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in THW Kiel vs Rhein Neckar Lowen?

Our model gives 79% to THW Kiel.

How many points are expected in THW Kiel vs Rhein Neckar Lowen?

The model estimates 57.5 total points (THW Kiel 30.1 · Rhein Neckar Lowen 27.4).