Handball · Germany Bundesliga · 24/10, 18:00

Prediction: HC Erlangen vs THW Kiel

Team pages: HC Erlangen · THW Kiel

Prediction summary

Estimated points

58.2Total

HC Erlangen28.5

THW Kiel29.7

1X2

34% 66%

HC Erlangen THW Kiel

Recent form · 10 last

HC Erlangen 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LLDLWWWLWW

THW Kiel 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWWDLWWW

Head-to-head

HC Erlangen 0–6 THW Kiel (6 last)

THW Kiel28-25HC Erlangen
HC Erlangen29-31THW Kiel
THW Kiel28-24HC Erlangen
HC Erlangen28-37THW Kiel
THW Kiel31-27HC Erlangen
HC Erlangen27-31THW Kiel

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · HC Erlangen 1525 · THW Kiel 1576

	HC Erlangen	THW Kiel
Our model	53%	47%
Market	19%	71%

Estimated total (ours) 58.2 points · Bet365 line 57.5 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points58.2HC Erlangen 28.5 · THW Kiel 29.7

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours THW Kiel (rating 1525 vs 1576).
THW Kiel is a clear favourite (66% market).
H2H favours THW Kiel: 6-0.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	HC Erlangen	THW Kiel
Points F\|A (Last 10)	29.3 / 29.2	30.9 / 28.3
Points F\|A (Last 5)	31.2 / 28.8	29.8 / 28.8
Est. result	29	30

Est. total58.2

Line O/U57.5

Diff.0.7

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

15.00

X9.50

21.32

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+3.5)1.88

2 (-3.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 57.51.88

Under 57.51.88

Diff.: 1.35 · Est. total: 58.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 10:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
X	9.50 → 9.50	Bet365 9.50
2	1.32 → 1.32	Bet365 1.32

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.3%

Time*	1	X	2
10:07 +9’	5.00	9.50	1.32

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · HC Erlangen 0–0–6 THW Kiel

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/12/25 Germany Bundesliga	THW Kiel	28-25	HC Erlangen
28/08/25 Germany Bundesliga	HC Erlangen	29-31	THW Kiel
20/02/25 Germany Bundesliga	THW Kiel	28-24	HC Erlangen
25/10/24 Germany Bundesliga	HC Erlangen	28-37	THW Kiel
06/04/24 Germany Bundesliga	THW Kiel	31-27	HC Erlangen
09/12/23 Germany Bundesliga	HC Erlangen	27-31	THW Kiel

Standings · Germany Bundesliga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	SG Flensburg-Handewitt	9	8	1	0	317	280	17
2	THW Kiel	10	8	1	1	309	283	17
3	SC Magdeburg	9	8	0	1	301	266	16
4	TBV Lemgo	9	6	0	3	281	282	12
5	MT Melsungen	9	5	1	3	283	254	11
6	HC Erlangen	9	5	1	3	276	270	11
7	Fuchse Berlin	8	5	0	3	270	256	10
8	TSV Hannover Burgdorf	9	4	2	3	266	269	10
9	TVB 1898 Stuttgart	9	4	1	4	272	270	9
10	Vfl Gummersbach	8	3	2	3	249	243	8
11	Rhein Neckar Lowen	9	3	1	5	266	273	7
12	ThSV Eisenach	9	2	2	5	255	271	6
13	Frisch Auf Goppingen	9	3	0	6	248	277	6
14	HBW Balingen-Weilstetten	7	2	1	4	208	200	5
15	HSV Hamburg	9	2	1	6	274	285	5
16	SG BBM Bietigheim	9	2	0	7	260	292	4
17	Bergischer HC	8	1	0	7	223	256	2
18	HSG Wetzlar	9	0	2	7	272	303	2

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	HC Erlangen	THW Kiel
SC Magdeburg	28-35 L	26-32 L
ThSV Eisenach	28-19 W	28-27 W
TBV Lemgo	33-28 W	35-27 W
SG Flensburg-Handewitt	33-38 L	31-31 D
TSV Hannover Burgdorf	28-28 D	29-26 W
Frisch Auf Goppingen	30-32 L	32-31 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 3 L	4 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: THW Kiel (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

HC Erlangen

LLDLWWWLWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
15/10	HSG Wetzlar Germany Bundesliga	34-30	W
11/10	MT Melsungen Germany Bundesliga	33-32	W
04/10	SC Magdeburg Germany Bundesliga	28-35	L
28/09	ThSV Eisenach Germany Bundesliga	28-19	W
20/09	TBV Lemgo Germany Bundesliga	33-28	W
13/09	Bergischer HC Germany Bundesliga	29-28	W
05/09	SG Flensburg-Handewitt Germany Bundesliga	33-38	L
02/09	TSV Hannover Burgdorf Germany Bundesliga	28-28	D
29/08	Frisch Auf Goppingen Germany Bundesliga	30-32	L
07/06	TVB 1898 Stuttgart Germany Bundesliga	17-22	L

THW Kiel

WWWWWDLWWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
15/10	Rhein Neckar Lowen Germany Bundesliga	37-36	W
11/10	HSV Hamburg Germany Bundesliga	26-19	W
03/10	Vfl Gummersbach Germany Bundesliga	29-26	W
30/09	SC Magdeburg Germany Bundesliga	26-32	L
26/09	SG Flensburg-Handewitt Germany Bundesliga	31-31	D
18/09	ThSV Eisenach Germany Bundesliga	28-27	W
12/09	TSV Hannover Burgdorf Germany Bundesliga	29-26	W
06/09	Frisch Auf Goppingen Germany Bundesliga	32-31	W
03/09	SG BBM Bietigheim Germany Bundesliga	36-28	W
27/08	TBV Lemgo Germany Bundesliga	35-27	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in HC Erlangen vs THW Kiel?

Our model gives 66% to THW Kiel.

How many points are expected in HC Erlangen vs THW Kiel?

The model estimates 58.2 total points (HC Erlangen 28.5 · THW Kiel 29.7).