Handball · Germany Bundesliga · 25/10, 16:30

Prediction: Bergischer HC vs HSV Hamburg

Team pages: Bergischer HC · HSV Hamburg

Prediction summary

Estimated points

62.1Total

Bergischer HC31

HSV Hamburg31.1

1X2 Even — no clear favourite

57% 43%

Bergischer HC HSV Hamburg

The bar shows the win probability, but the expected points are almost even: the model does not lean clearly on either side.

Recent form · 10 last

Bergischer HC 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

WWLLLLLLWL

HSV Hamburg 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WLDLLLWLLW

Head-to-head

Bergischer HC 4–2 HSV Hamburg (6 last)

HSV Hamburg34-35Bergischer HC
Bergischer HC35-32HSV Hamburg
HSV Hamburg32-30Bergischer HC
Bergischer HC29-28HSV Hamburg
Bergischer HC37-34HSV Hamburg
HSV Hamburg33-23Bergischer HC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Bergischer HC 1490 · HSV Hamburg 1481

	Bergischer HC	HSV Hamburg
Our model	61%	39%
Market	48%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 62.1 points · Bet365 line 62.5 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points62.1Bergischer HC 31 · HSV Hamburg 31.1

Match keys

H2H favours Bergischer HC: 4-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Bergischer HC	HSV Hamburg
Points F\|A (Last 10)	28.4 / 31	31.4 / 31.8
Points F\|A (Last 5)	27.8 / 33	31 / 31.8
Est. result	31	31

Est. total62.1

Line O/U62.5

Diff.0.4

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.95

X8.00

22.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.95

2 (+0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 62.51.88

Under 62.51.88

Diff.: 1.2 · Est. total: 61.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95
X	8.00 → 8.00	Bet365 8.00
2	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.3%

Time*	1	X	2
11:58 +19’	1.95	8.00	2.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Bergischer HC 4–0–2 HSV Hamburg

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/03/26 Germany Bundesliga	HSV Hamburg	34-35	Bergischer HC
30/11/25 Germany Bundesliga	Bergischer HC	35-32	HSV Hamburg
02/05/24 Germany Bundesliga	HSV Hamburg	32-30	Bergischer HC
11/11/23 Germany Bundesliga	Bergischer HC	29-28	HSV Hamburg
09/04/23 Germany Bundesliga	Bergischer HC	37-34	HSV Hamburg
22/09/22 Germany Bundesliga	HSV Hamburg	33-23	Bergischer HC

Standings · Germany Bundesliga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	SG Flensburg-Handewitt	9	8	1	0	317	280	17
2	THW Kiel	10	8	1	1	309	283	17
3	SC Magdeburg	9	8	0	1	301	266	16
4	TBV Lemgo	9	6	0	3	281	282	12
5	MT Melsungen	9	5	1	3	283	254	11
6	HC Erlangen	9	5	1	3	276	270	11
7	Fuchse Berlin	8	5	0	3	270	256	10
8	TSV Hannover Burgdorf	9	4	2	3	266	269	10
9	TVB 1898 Stuttgart	9	4	1	4	272	270	9
10	Vfl Gummersbach	8	3	2	3	249	243	8
11	Rhein Neckar Lowen	9	3	1	5	266	273	7
12	ThSV Eisenach	9	2	2	5	255	271	6
13	Frisch Auf Goppingen	9	3	0	6	248	277	6
14	HBW Balingen-Weilstetten	7	2	1	4	208	200	5
15	HSV Hamburg	9	2	1	6	274	285	5
16	SG BBM Bietigheim	9	2	0	7	260	292	4
17	Bergischer HC	8	1	0	7	223	256	2
18	HSG Wetzlar	9	0	2	7	272	303	2

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Bergischer HC	HSV Hamburg
HBW Balingen-Weilstetten	29-28 W	26-30 L
SG Flensburg-Handewitt	29-34 L	34-37 L
TVB 1898 Stuttgart	29-30 L	34-34 D
Frisch Auf Goppingen	29-28 W	31-32 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	0 W 1 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Bergischer HC

WWLLLLLLWL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
17/10	MT Melsungen Germany Bundesliga	26-33	L
02/10	HBW Balingen-Weilstetten Germany Bundesliga	29-28	W
27/09	Vfl Gummersbach Germany Bundesliga	30-38	L
20/09	Fuchse Berlin Germany Bundesliga	26-37	L
13/09	HC Erlangen Germany Bundesliga	28-29	L
05/09	Rhein Neckar Lowen Germany Bundesliga	26-27	L
02/09	SG Flensburg-Handewitt Germany Bundesliga	29-34	L
28/08	TVB 1898 Stuttgart Germany Bundesliga	29-30	L
07/06	Frisch Auf Goppingen Germany Bundesliga	29-28	W
29/05	HC Erlangen Germany Bundesliga	32-26	W

HSV Hamburg

WLDLLLWLLW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
17/10	SG BBM Bietigheim Germany Bundesliga	35-30	W
11/10	THW Kiel Germany Bundesliga	19-26	L
01/10	TBV Lemgo Germany Bundesliga	30-34	L
27/09	HSG Wetzlar Germany Bundesliga	37-32	W
20/09	SG Flensburg-Handewitt Germany Bundesliga	34-37	L
13/09	Frisch Auf Goppingen Germany Bundesliga	31-32	L
05/09	TSV Hannover Burgdorf Germany Bundesliga	28-30	L
02/09	TVB 1898 Stuttgart Germany Bundesliga	34-34	D
30/08	HBW Balingen-Weilstetten Germany Bundesliga	26-30	L
07/06	ThSV Eisenach Germany Bundesliga	40-33	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Bergischer HC vs HSV Hamburg?

Our model does not see a clear favourite: the match is very even (Bergischer HC 57% · HSV Hamburg 43%).

How many points are expected in Bergischer HC vs HSV Hamburg?

The model estimates 62.1 total points (Bergischer HC 31 · HSV Hamburg 31.1).