Handball · Slovenia Prva Liga · 21/10, 18:30

Prediction: RD Slovan vs RK Gorenje Velenje

Team pages: RD Slovan · RK Gorenje Velenje

Prediction summary

Estimated points

59.3Total

RD Slovan31.1

RK Gorenje Velenje28.2

1X2

82% 18%

RD Slovan RK Gorenje Velenje

Recent form · 10 last

RD Slovan 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

LLWWWLWWWW

RK Gorenje Velenje 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DDLWWLWWLL

Head-to-head

RD Slovan 5–1 RK Gorenje Velenje (6 last)

RD Slovan35-25RK Gorenje Velenje
RK Gorenje Velenje19-26RD Slovan
RK Gorenje Velenje30-27RD Slovan
RD Slovan31-27RK Gorenje Velenje
RK Gorenje Velenje26-29RD Slovan
RD Slovan30-24RK Gorenje Velenje

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · RD Slovan 1602 · RK Gorenje Velenje 1513

	RD Slovan	RK Gorenje Velenje
Our model	71%	29%
Market	84%	10%

Estimated total (ours) 59.3 points · Bet365 line 60.5 · -1.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points59.3RD Slovan 31.1 · RK Gorenje Velenje 28.2

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours RD Slovan (rating 1602 vs 1513).
RD Slovan is a clear favourite (82% market).
H2H favours RD Slovan: 5-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	RD Slovan	RK Gorenje Velenje
Points F\|A (Last 10)	35.5 / 29.9	28.3 / 28.4
Points F\|A (Last 5)	35.6 / 28.8	28.4 / 29.4
Est. result	31	28

Est. total59.3

Line O/U60.5

Diff.1.2

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.07

X15.00

29.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-7.5)1.85

2 (+7.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 60.51.85

Under 60.51.85

Diff.: 0.55 · Est. total: 61.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.07 → 1.07	Bet365 1.07
X	15.00 → 15.00	Bet365 15.00
2	9.50 → 9.50	Bet365 9.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.7%

Time*	1	X	2
12:09 +5’	1.07	15.00	9.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · RD Slovan 5–0–1 RK Gorenje Velenje

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/04/26 Slovenia Prva Liga	RD Slovan	35-25	RK Gorenje Velenje
03/04/26 Slovenia Prva Liga	RK Gorenje Velenje	19-26	RD Slovan
17/12/25 Slovenia Prva Liga	RK Gorenje Velenje	30-27	RD Slovan
01/10/25 Slovenia Prva Liga	RD Slovan	31-27	RK Gorenje Velenje
04/06/25 Slovenia Prva Liga	RK Gorenje Velenje	26-29	RD Slovan
31/05/25 Slovenia Prva Liga	RD Slovan	30-24	RK Gorenje Velenje

Standings · Slovenia Prva Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	RD Slovan	8	7	0	1	278	216	14
2	RK Trimo Trebnje	8	6	1	1	270	229	13
3	RK Celje	8	6	0	2	284	237	12
4	MRK Krka	8	5	2	1	245	241	12
5	RD Loka	8	5	1	2	243	237	11
6	RK Slovenj Gradec 2011	8	4	2	2	250	229	10
7	RK Gorenje Velenje	8	4	0	4	229	230	8
8	RK Ormoz	8	2	2	4	234	253	6
9	SD Skofljica	8	2	0	6	233	282	4
10	RK Ajdovscina	8	1	1	6	243	282	3
11	RD Ribnica	8	1	1	6	231	259	3
12	RK Svis	8	0	0	8	210	255	0

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	RD Slovan	RK Gorenje Velenje
RK Trimo Trebnje	31-26 W	25-33 L
SD Skofljica	46-28 W	30-31 L
RK Svis	34-25 W	31-25 W
RK Celje	33-34 L	29-28 W
RK Slovenj Gradec 2011	28-23 W	27-30 L
RD Ribnica	38-22 W	29-28 W
RK Ajdovscina	34-27 W	35-27 W
Record vs common	6 W 0 D 1 L	4 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: RD Slovan (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

RD Slovan

LLWWWLWWWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
17/10	RK Ormoz Slovenia Prva Liga	34-31	W
09/10	RK Trimo Trebnje Slovenia Prva Liga	31-26	W
03/10	SD Skofljica Slovenia Prva Liga	46-28	W
26/09	RK Svis Slovenia Prva Liga	34-25	W
20/09	RK Celje Slovenia Prva Liga	33-34	L
12/09	RK Slovenj Gradec 2011 Slovenia Prva Liga	28-23	W
05/09	RD Ribnica Slovenia Prva Liga	38-22	W
02/09	RK Ajdovscina Slovenia Prva Liga	34-27	W
31/05	RK Celje Slovenia Prva Liga	39-41	L
27/05	RK Celje Slovenia Prva Liga	38-42	L

RK Gorenje Velenje

DDLWWLWWLL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
14/10	RK Trimo Trebnje Slovenia Prva Liga	25-33	L
10/10	SD Skofljica Slovenia Prva Liga	30-31	L
03/10	RK Svis Slovenia Prva Liga	31-25	W
27/09	RK Celje Slovenia Prva Liga	29-28	W
20/09	RK Slovenj Gradec 2011 Slovenia Prva Liga	27-30	L
16/09	RD Ribnica Slovenia Prva Liga	29-28	W
05/09	RK Ajdovscina Slovenia Prva Liga	35-27	W
02/09	MRK Krka Slovenia Prva Liga	23-28	L
23/05	MRK Krka Slovenia Prva Liga	25-25	D
09/05	MRK Krka Slovenia Prva Liga	29-29	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in RD Slovan vs RK Gorenje Velenje?

Our model gives 82% to RD Slovan.

How many points are expected in RD Slovan vs RK Gorenje Velenje?

The model estimates 59.3 total points (RD Slovan 31.1 · RK Gorenje Velenje 28.2).