Football · Mexico Liga MX Femenil · 16/11, 02:00

Prediction: Monterrey (W) vs Pachuca (W)

Team pages: Monterrey (W) · Pachuca (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.64Total

Monterrey (W)2.23

Pachuca (W)1.41

1X2

55% 23% 23%

Monterrey (W) Draw Pachuca (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Monterrey (W) 9-1-0 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWDWWW

Pachuca (W) 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

LLLWLLWWWL

Head-to-head

Monterrey (W) 3–3 Pachuca (W) (6 last)

Pachuca (W)0-1Monterrey (W)
Monterrey (W)4-1Pachuca (W)
Pachuca (W)0-1Monterrey (W)
Monterrey (W)0-2Pachuca (W)
Monterrey (W)0-1Pachuca (W)
Pachuca (W)4-1Monterrey (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Monterrey (W) 1634 · Pachuca (W) 1474

	Monterrey (W)	Draw	Pachuca (W)
Our model	55%	22%	23%
Market	54%	23%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 3.64 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 74%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Monterrey (W) (rating 1634 vs 1474).
Cards-heavy: 5.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Monterrey (W)	Pachuca (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	3.6 / 1	2.2 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1.4 / 0.5	1.3 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	70/10/20%	40/10/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.8	2.7 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0.3	2.5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.65

X3.90

24.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.85

2 (+0.75)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 1.15 · xG: 4.15

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 06:22

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.55 → 1.65▲	Pinn 1.68
X	4.00 → 3.90▼	Pinn 3.97
2	4.50 → 4.00▼	Pinn 4.45 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.2% Pinnacle margin 7.2%

Time*	1	X	2
17:53 +45’	1.55	4.00	4.50
05:48 +34’	1.65▲	3.90▼	4.00▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
18:31 +6’	1.67	4.00	4.52
00:12 +3’	1.68▲	3.97▼	4.45▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Monterrey (W) 3–0–3 Pachuca (W)

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
12/11/26 Mexico Liga MX Femenil	Pachuca (W)	0-1 HT 0-1	Monterrey (W)
11/05/26 Mexico Liga MX Femenil	Monterrey (W)	4-1 HT 1-1	Pachuca (W)
28/03/26 Mexico Liga MX Femenil	Pachuca (W)	0-1 HT 0-1	Monterrey (W)
23/09/25 Mexico Liga MX Femenil	Monterrey (W)	0-2 HT 0-2	Pachuca (W)
17/07/25 Mexico Liga MX Femenil	Monterrey (W)	0-1 HT 0-0	Pachuca (W)
06/05/25 Mexico Liga MX Femenil	Pachuca (W)	4-1 HT 2-1	Monterrey (W)

Standings · Mexico Liga MX Femenil · Group B

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Club America (W)	14	12	1	1	63	13	37
2	Chivas Guadalajara (W)	14	10	0	4	33	16	30
3	Unam Pumas (W)	14	6	2	6	23	25	20
4	Pachuca (W)	14	6	1	7	29	20	19
5	Atletico San Luis (W)	14	6	1	7	25	29	19
6	Atlas (W)	14	4	5	5	14	28	17
7	Tijuana (W)	14	3	2	9	18	33	11
8	Puebla (W)	14	1	1	12	19	48	4
9	Necaxa (W)	14	0	1	13	5	54	1

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Monterrey (W)	Pachuca (W)
Club America (W)	4-3 W	1-2 L
Puebla (W)	2-1 W	4-3 W
Necaxa (W)	10-0 W	5-0 W
Toluca (W)	5-1 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 0 L	2 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Monterrey (W) (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Monterrey (W)

WWWWWWDWWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/11	Pachuca (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	1-0	1-0	8	1	W
07/11	Juarez FC (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-1	2-1	12	0	W
31/10	Unam Pumas (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	1-0	6-0	2	0	W
26/10	Tigres UANL (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	2-1	2-2	3	8	D
18/10	Cruz Azul (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	1-0	1-0	5	1	W
03/10	Club America (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	1-3	4-3	1	3	W
27/09	Puebla (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-0	2-1	4	4	W
19/09	Necaxa (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	2-0	10-0	6	2	W
13/09	Chivas Guadalajara (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	3-0	3-2	4	6	W
06/09	Toluca (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	3-0	5-1	3	4	W

Pachuca (W)

LLLWLLWWWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/11	Monterrey (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-1	0-1	4	1	L
07/11	Puebla (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	4-1	4-3	2	3	W
31/10	Queretaro (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	3-0	5-0	3	3	W
25/10	Necaxa (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	1-0	5-0	7	0	W
19/10	Club America (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	1-2	1-2	1	6	L
05/10	Toluca (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-1	1-2	7	4	L
27/09	Santos Laguna (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	3-0	4-1	13	0	W
21/09	Atletico San Luis (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-1	1-2	5	1	L
15/09	Leon (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-0	0-1	5	5	L
06/09	Tijuana (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	1-3	1-3	7	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Monterrey (W) vs Pachuca (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Monterrey (W) win (55%). Probabilities: Monterrey (W) 55%, draw 23%, Pachuca (W) 23%.

How many goals are expected in Monterrey (W) vs Pachuca (W)?

The model expects 3.64 goals (Monterrey (W) 2.23 · Pachuca (W) 1.41), with a 56% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Monterrey (W) vs Pachuca (W)?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.