Football · Mexico Liga MX Femenil · 12/11, 04:00

Prediction: Pachuca (W) vs Monterrey (W)

Team pages: Pachuca (W) · Monterrey (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.73Total

Pachuca (W)1.71

Monterrey (W)2.02

1X2

32% 24% 44%

Pachuca (W) Draw Monterrey (W)

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Pachuca (W) 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

LLLLWLLWWW

Monterrey (W) 9-1-0 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWWDWW

Head-to-head

Pachuca (W) 3–3 Monterrey (W) (6 last)

Monterrey (W)4-1Pachuca (W)
Pachuca (W)0-1Monterrey (W)
Monterrey (W)0-2Pachuca (W)
Monterrey (W)0-1Pachuca (W)
Pachuca (W)4-1Monterrey (W)
Monterrey (W)1-0Pachuca (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Pachuca (W) 1476 · Monterrey (W) 1638

	Pachuca (W)	Draw	Monterrey (W)
Our model	32%	23%	45%
Market	31%	25%	44%

Estimated total (ours) 3.73 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 75%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Monterrey (W) (rating 1476 vs 1638).
Cards-heavy: 5.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Pachuca (W)	Monterrey (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 1.6	3.9 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 0.9	1.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/10/50%	70/10/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.4	2.2 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0.3	2.7 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

12.88

X3.50

22.05

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.93

2 (-0.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 1.35 · xG: 4.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.1%

Time*	1	X	2
20:59 +4’	2.88	3.50	2.05

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Pachuca (W) 3–0–3 Monterrey (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/05/26 Mexico Liga MX Femenil	Monterrey (W)	4-1 HT 1-1	Pachuca (W)
28/03/26 Mexico Liga MX Femenil	Pachuca (W)	0-1 HT 0-1	Monterrey (W)
23/09/25 Mexico Liga MX Femenil	Monterrey (W)	0-2 HT 0-2	Pachuca (W)
17/07/25 Mexico Liga MX Femenil	Monterrey (W)	0-1 HT 0-0	Pachuca (W)
06/05/25 Mexico Liga MX Femenil	Pachuca (W)	4-1 HT 2-1	Monterrey (W)
03/05/25 Mexico Liga MX Femenil	Monterrey (W)	1-0 HT 1-0	Pachuca (W)

Standings · Mexico Liga MX Femenil · Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Club America (W)	14	12	1	1	63	13	37
2	Chivas Guadalajara (W)	14	10	0	4	33	16	30
3	Unam Pumas (W)	14	6	2	6	23	25	20
4	Pachuca (W)	14	6	1	7	29	20	19
5	Atletico San Luis (W)	14	6	1	7	25	29	19
6	Atlas (W)	14	4	5	5	14	28	17
7	Tijuana (W)	14	3	2	9	18	33	11
8	Puebla (W)	14	1	1	12	19	48	4
9	Necaxa (W)	14	0	1	13	5	54	1

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Pachuca (W)	Monterrey (W)
Puebla (W)	4-3 W	2-1 W
Queretaro (W)	5-0 W	4-0 W
Necaxa (W)	5-0 W	10-0 W
Club America (W)	1-2 L	4-3 W
Toluca (W)	1-2 L	5-1 W
Tigres UANL (W)	0-2 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 3 L	5 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Monterrey (W) (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Pachuca (W)

LLLLWLLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Puebla (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	4-1	4-3	2	3	W
31/10	Queretaro (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	3-0	5-0	3	3	W
25/10	Necaxa (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	1-0	5-0	7	0	W
19/10	Club America (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	1-2	1-2	1	6	L
05/10	Toluca (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-1	1-2	7	4	L
27/09	Santos Laguna (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	3-0	4-1	13	0	W
21/09	Atletico San Luis (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-1	1-2	5	1	L
15/09	Leon (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-0	0-1	5	5	L
06/09	Tijuana (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	1-3	1-3	7	5	L
30/08	Tigres UANL (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-1	0-2	4	5	L

Monterrey (W)

WWWWWWWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Juarez FC (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-1	2-1	12	0	W
31/10	Unam Pumas (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	1-0	6-0	2	0	W
26/10	Tigres UANL (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	2-1	2-2	3	8	D
18/10	Cruz Azul (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	1-0	1-0	5	1	W
03/10	Club America (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	1-3	4-3	1	3	W
27/09	Puebla (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-0	2-1	4	4	W
19/09	Necaxa (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	2-0	10-0	6	2	W
13/09	Chivas Guadalajara (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	3-0	3-2	4	6	W
06/09	Toluca (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	3-0	5-1	3	4	W
30/08	Queretaro (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	2-0	4-0	3	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Pachuca (W) vs Monterrey (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Monterrey (W) win (44%). Probabilities: Pachuca (W) 32%, draw 24%, Monterrey (W) 44%.

How many goals are expected in Pachuca (W) vs Monterrey (W)?

The model expects 3.73 goals (Pachuca (W) 1.71 · Monterrey (W) 2.02), with a 58% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Pachuca (W) vs Monterrey (W)?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.