Football · Mexico Liga MX Femenil · 16/11, 04:10
Prediction: Toluca (W) vs Club America (W)
Team pages: Toluca (W) · Club America (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.27Total
Toluca (W)1.45
Club America (W)2.83
1X2
Toluca (W)
Draw
Club America (W)
Markets
Under 4.5 goals 58%
Both teams to score 61%
Most likely score
1-2 8%
Recent form · 10 last
Toluca (W)
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Club America (W)
8-1-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Toluca (W)
1–1–4
Club America (W)
(6 last)
- Club America (W)3-0Toluca (W)
- Club America (W)4-3Toluca (W)
- Toluca (W)1-7Club America (W)
- Club America (W)2-0Toluca (W)
- Toluca (W)3-3Club America (W)
- Toluca (W)4-3Club America (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Toluca (W) 1480 · Club America (W) 1631
| Toluca (W) | Draw | Club America (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 17% | 18% | 66% |
| Market | 16% | 20% | 64% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.27 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 79%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Club America (W) (rating 1480 vs 1631).
- H2H favours Club America (W): 4-1-1.
- High corners: 13 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Toluca (W) | Club America (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2 / 2.1 | 3.8 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 1 | 2.1 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/30/30% | 80/20/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 4.1 | 4.3 / 8.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.9 / 0.3 | 3.6 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Toluca (W) 1–1–4 Club America (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/11/26 Mexico Liga MX Femenil | Club America (W) | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Toluca (W) |
| 10/05/26 Mexico Liga MX Femenil | Club America (W) | 4-3 HT 2-3 | Toluca (W) |
| 08/05/26 Mexico Liga MX Femenil | Toluca (W) | 1-7 HT 1-4 | Club America (W) |
| 17/03/26 Mexico Liga MX Femenil | Club America (W) | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Toluca (W) |
| 23/09/25 Mexico Liga MX Femenil | Toluca (W) | 3-3 HT 2-3 | Club America (W) |
| 19/04/25 Mexico Liga MX Femenil | Toluca (W) | 4-3 HT 2-2 | Club America (W) |
Standings · Mexico Liga MX Femenil · Group B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club America (W) | 14 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 63 | 13 | 37 |
| 2 | Chivas Guadalajara (W) | 14 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 33 | 16 | 30 |
| 3 | Unam Pumas (W) | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 23 | 25 | 20 |
| 4 | Pachuca (W) | 14 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 29 | 20 | 19 |
| 5 | Atletico San Luis (W) | 14 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 25 | 29 | 19 |
| 6 | Atlas (W) | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 14 | 28 | 17 |
| 7 | Tijuana (W) | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 18 | 33 | 11 |
| 8 | Puebla (W) | 14 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 19 | 48 | 4 |
| 9 | Necaxa (W) | 14 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 5 | 54 | 1 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Toluca (W) | Club America (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Chivas Guadalajara (W) | 2-3 L | 3-1 W |
| Pachuca (W) | 2-1 W | 2-1 W |
| Tigres UANL (W) | 2-7 L | 5-2 W |
| Monterrey (W) | 1-5 L | 3-4 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 3 L | 3 W 0 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Club America (W) (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Toluca (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/11 | Club America (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-1 | 0-3 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 06/11 | Queretaro (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 31/10 | Chivas Guadalajara (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
1-0 | 2-3 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 25/10 | Cruz Azul (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
1-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 20/10 | Santos Laguna (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | D |
| 05/10 | Pachuca (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
1-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 29/09 | Necaxa (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
1-0 | 4-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 22/09 | Tigres UANL (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
1-5 | 2-7 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 15/09 | Tijuana (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
3-0 | 6-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 06/09 | Monterrey (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-3 | 1-5 | 4 | 4 | L |
Club America (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/11 | Toluca (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
1-0 | 3-0 | 10 | 3 | W |
| 07/11 | Chivas Guadalajara (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
1-0 | 3-1 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 01/11 | Atlante (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
2-0 | 6-0 | 12 | 1 | W |
| 25/10 | Atletico San Luis (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
5-0 | 7-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 19/10 | Pachuca (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
2-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 03/10 | Monterrey (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
3-1 | 3-4 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 29/09 | Leon (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
2-0 | 5-0 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 20/09 | Atlas (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
1-1 | 2-2 | 10 | 2 | D |
| 14/09 | Tigres UANL (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
3-0 | 5-2 | 10 | 5 | W |
| 05/09 | Unam Pumas (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
1-1 | 2-1 | 13 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Toluca (W) vs Club America (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Club America (W) win (65%). Probabilities: Toluca (W) 16%, draw 19%, Club America (W) 65%.
How many goals are expected in Toluca (W) vs Club America (W)?
The model expects 4.27 goals (Toluca (W) 1.45 · Club America (W) 2.83), with a 53% chance of over 3.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Toluca (W) vs Club America (W)?
The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.