Football · Portugal Campeonato Nacional · 08/11, 12:00

Prediction: Alcochetense vs Juventude Desportiva Lajense

Team pages: Alcochetense · Juventude Desportiva Lajense

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.08Total

Alcochetense1.95

Juventude Desportiva Lajense1.13

1X2

55% 24% 21%

Alcochetense Draw Juventude Desportiva Lajense

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Alcochetense 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WDWLDDWLWW

Juventude Desportiva Lajense 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LWWLDLWLWL

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Alcochetense 1548 · Juventude Desportiva Lajense 1478

	Alcochetense	Draw	Juventude Desportiva Lajense
Our model	55%	24%	21%
Market	55%	25%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 3.08 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.8

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alcochetense (rating 1548 vs 1478).
Cards-heavy: 11.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Alcochetense	Juventude Desportiva Lajense
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.2	1.6 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.4	0.5 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	38/50/13%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.6 / 6.2	1.4 / 3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.3 / 0.3	5.1 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.61

X3.60

24.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.85

2 (+0.75)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.85

Under 2.251.95

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 22:32

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.48 → 1.61▲	Bet365 1.61
X	3.80 → 3.60▼	Bet365 3.60
2	5.50 → 4.33▼	Bet365 4.33

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 12.8%

Time*	1	X	2
16:13 +22’	1.48	3.80	5.50
16:10 +15’	1.53▲	3.75▼	5.00▼
22:22 +10’	1.61▲	3.60▼	4.33▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Portugal Campeonato Nacional · Campeonato de Portugal 26/27, Group D

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	SU Sintrense	7	5	1	1	15	6	16
2	Real Sport Clube Queluz	7	3	4	0	14	9	13
3	Juventude de Evora	7	3	2	2	12	11	11
4	Alcochetense	7	3	2	2	12	10	11
5	Imortal DC	7	3	2	2	11	6	11
6	Serpa	7	2	4	1	11	9	10
7	Amora	7	2	2	3	8	8	8
8	SU 1 Dezembro	6	2	2	2	4	8	8
9	Santa Clara B	6	2	2	2	9	7	8
10	Vitoria Setubal	7	2	2	3	10	12	8
11	Juventude Desportiva Lajense	7	2	1	4	9	11	7
12	GD Portel	7	0	6	1	9	12	6
13	GD Lagoa	7	1	3	3	6	9	6
14	SC Mineiro Aljustrelense	7	0	3	4	3	15	3

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Alcochetense	Juventude Desportiva Lajense
Amora	2-1 W	0-1 L
Juventude de Evora	2-3 L	2-0 W
GD Lagoa	2-1 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Alcochetense

WDWLDDWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Amora Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-1	2-1	6	8	W
25/10	Serpa Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	3-1	4	6	W
11/10	Santa Clara B Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	0-2	10	6	L
27/09	SC Mineiro Aljustrelense Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	2-0	3	3	W
13/09	Imortal DC Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-1	1-1	6	10	D
23/08	GD Portel Portugal Campeonato Nacional	–	2-2	8	9	D
16/08	Juventude de Evora Portugal Campeonato Nacional	–	2-3	–	–	L
18/04	GD Lagoa Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-1	2-1	10	9	W
12/04	Clube Oriental Lisboa Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	1-1	4	7	D
04/04	Alverca B Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	1-0	5	2	W

Juventude Desportiva Lajense

LWWLDLWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	SU Sintrense Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	0-2	2	6	L
25/10	GD Lagoa Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-1	2-1	5	6	W
11/10	SU 1 Dezembro Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-1	0-1	8	10	L
04/10	Juventude de Evora Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	2-0	0	6	W
27/09	Amora Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-1	0-1	3	4	L
13/09	Real Sport Clube Queluz Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-4	5-5	2	2	D
06/09	Vitoria Setubal Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	0-1	1	10	L
18/04	CF Os Marialvas Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	1-0	1	3	W
12/04	AC Marinhense Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-3	5-4	6	4	W
04/04	Naval 1893 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-1	1-2	2	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Alcochetense vs Juventude Desportiva Lajense?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Alcochetense win (55%). Probabilities: Alcochetense 55%, draw 24%, Juventude Desportiva Lajense 21%.

How many goals are expected in Alcochetense vs Juventude Desportiva Lajense?

The model expects 3.08 goals (Alcochetense 1.95 · Juventude Desportiva Lajense 1.13), with a 59% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Alcochetense vs Juventude Desportiva Lajense?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.