Football · Panama Liga Prom · 07/11, 15:00

Prediction: San Francisco Reserves vs SD Atletico Nacional

Team pages: San Francisco Reserves · SD Atletico Nacional

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.39Total

San Francisco Reserves2.16

SD Atletico Nacional1.23

1X2

57% 24% 19%

San Francisco Reserves Draw SD Atletico Nacional

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

San Francisco Reserves 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

WLWWWWLWLW

SD Atletico Nacional 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LWLWWWWLLD

Head-to-head

San Francisco Reserves 4–2 SD Atletico Nacional (6 last)

SD Atletico Nacional3-2San Francisco Reserves
San Francisco Reserves3-1SD Atletico Nacional
SD Atletico Nacional2-0San Francisco Reserves
San Francisco Reserves2-0SD Atletico Nacional
SD Atletico Nacional1-3San Francisco Reserves
SD Atletico Nacional0-1San Francisco Reserves

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · San Francisco Reserves 1535 · SD Atletico Nacional 1516

	San Francisco Reserves	Draw	SD Atletico Nacional
Our model	58%	22%	20%
Market	56%	26%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 3.39 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours San Francisco Reserves: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 12.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	San Francisco Reserves	SD Atletico Nacional
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.5	1.9 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1.1	0.8 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	25/38/38%	33/17/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 4.5	3.2 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.6	7.7 / 1

Odds Bet365

11.65

X3.60

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.82

2 (+0.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:50

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.65 → 1.65	Bet365 1.65
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.4%

Time*	1	X	2
02:37 +13’	1.65	3.60	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · San Francisco Reserves 4–0–2 SD Atletico Nacional

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/07/26 Panama Liga Prom	SD Atletico Nacional	3-2 HT 0-0	San Francisco Reserves
25/04/26 Panama Liga Prom	San Francisco Reserves	3-1 HT 2-0	SD Atletico Nacional
06/02/26 Panama Liga Prom	SD Atletico Nacional	2-0 HT 1-0	San Francisco Reserves
12/04/25 Panama Liga Prom	San Francisco Reserves	2-0 HT 1-0	SD Atletico Nacional
23/01/25 Panama Liga Prom	SD Atletico Nacional	1-3	San Francisco Reserves
18/10/24 Panama Liga Prom	SD Atletico Nacional	0-1 HT 0-0	San Francisco Reserves

Standings · Panama Liga Prom · Apertura, West-South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Aguilas de la U	15	12	1	2	44	12	37
2	Udelas FC	15	12	1	2	38	13	37
3	CA Independiente de la Chorrera Reserves	14	7	5	2	26	17	26
4	San Francisco Reserves	15	8	1	6	24	25	25
5	SD Atletico Nacional	14	7	1	6	25	27	22
6	Union Cocle Reserves	14	2	4	8	13	29	10

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	San Francisco Reserves	SD Atletico Nacional
Aguilas de la U	1-3 L	1-3 L
CA Independiente de la Chorrera Reserves	3-2 W	0-0 D
Udelas FC	0-3 L	0-1 L
CD Universitario Reserves	1-0 W	3-1 W
La Familia FC	2-1 W	2-1 W
Herrera FC Reserves	1-0 W	3-2 W
Bocas	4-1 W	3-2 W
Veraguas United Reserves	1-4 L	3-4 L
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 3 L	4 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: SD Atletico Nacional (3 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

San Francisco Reserves

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Union Cocle Reserves Panama Liga Prom	–	1-0	–	–	W
27/10	Aguilas de la U Panama Liga Prom	1-1	1-3	2	2	L
21/10	CA Independiente de la Chorrera Reserves Panama Liga Prom	1-2	3-2	4	5	W
08/10	Udelas FC Panama Liga Prom	0-3	0-3	8	3	L
01/10	CD Universitario Reserves Panama Liga Prom	1-0	1-0	5	3	W
27/09	La Familia FC Panama Liga Prom	0-0	2-1	6	9	W
19/09	Herrera FC Reserves Panama Liga Prom	0-0	1-0	4	6	W
04/09	Bocas Panama Liga Prom	–	4-1	–	–	W
28/08	Veraguas United Reserves Panama Liga Prom	1-2	1-4	5	4	L
21/08	Union Cocle Reserves Panama Liga Prom	2-1	3-1	2	8	W

SD Atletico Nacional

LWLWWWWLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	CA Independiente de la Chorrera Reserves Panama Liga Prom	–	0-0	–	–	D
27/10	Udelas FC Panama Liga Prom	0-1	0-1	2	7	L
23/10	Aguilas de la U Panama Liga Prom	0-1	1-3	4	8	L
01/10	La Familia FC Panama Liga Prom	2-1	2-1	5	11	W
26/09	Herrera FC Reserves Panama Liga Prom	–	3-2	–	–	W
17/09	Rayados de Chiriqui Panama Liga Prom	0-0	2-0	7	8	W
12/09	Bocas Panama Liga Prom	–	3-2	–	–	W
04/09	Veraguas United Reserves Panama Liga Prom	1-3	3-4	6	11	L
28/08	CD Universitario Reserves Panama Liga Prom	2-0	3-1	10	7	W
22/08	CA Independiente de la Chorrera Reserves Panama Liga Prom	–	2-4	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in San Francisco Reserves vs SD Atletico Nacional?

According to our model, the most likely result is a San Francisco Reserves win (57%). Probabilities: San Francisco Reserves 57%, draw 24%, SD Atletico Nacional 19%.

How many goals are expected in San Francisco Reserves vs SD Atletico Nacional?

The model expects 3.39 goals (San Francisco Reserves 2.16 · SD Atletico Nacional 1.23), with a 54% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in San Francisco Reserves vs SD Atletico Nacional?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.