Football · Belgium First Amateur Division · 08/11, 15:00

Prediction: Sporting Charleroi U23 vs Union Rochefortoise

Team pages: Sporting Charleroi U23 · Union Rochefortoise

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.84Total

Sporting Charleroi U231.19

Union Rochefortoise1.65

1X2

27% 25% 48%

Sporting Charleroi U23 Draw Union Rochefortoise

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Sporting Charleroi U23 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WDLDDWDLWL

Union Rochefortoise 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWWLDDWWLW

Head-to-head

Sporting Charleroi U23 1–2–0 Union Rochefortoise (3 last)

Union Rochefortoise1-1Sporting Charleroi U23
Union Rochefortoise1-1Sporting Charleroi U23
Sporting Charleroi U232-1Union Rochefortoise

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sporting Charleroi U23 1514 · Union Rochefortoise 1567

	Sporting Charleroi U23	Draw	Union Rochefortoise
Our model	26%	27%	47%
Market	28%	24%	49%

Estimated total (ours) 2.84 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Union Rochefortoise (rating 1514 vs 1567).
Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sporting Charleroi U23	Union Rochefortoise
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.2	2.1 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.5	1 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/70/10%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.1 / 2.6	1.4 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.3	4.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.25

X3.80

21.85

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.90

2 (-0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.93

Under 2.751.88

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 01:42

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.40 → 3.25▼	Pinn 3.61 ★
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	1.80 → 1.85▲	Pinn 1.92

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.1% Pinnacle margin 8.5%

Time*	1	X	2
01:19 +9’	3.40	3.80	1.80
01:25 +17’	3.25▼	3.80	1.85▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
09:11 +5’	3.52	3.41	1.89
10:07 +13’	3.61▲	3.49▲	1.92▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.75

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sporting Charleroi U23 1–2–0 Union Rochefortoise

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/09/26 Belgium First Amateur Division	Union Rochefortoise	1-1 HT 1-1	Sporting Charleroi U23
06/12/25 Belgium First Amateur Division	Union Rochefortoise	1-1 HT 1-1	Sporting Charleroi U23
12/10/25 Belgium First Amateur Division	Sporting Charleroi U23	2-1 HT 0-1	Union Rochefortoise

Standings · Belgium First Amateur Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	RFC Meux	11	7	1	3	19	11	22
2	Union Rochefortoise	11	6	3	2	22	10	21
3	Union Saint Gilloise II	11	6	3	2	21	13	21
4	Tubize	11	6	2	3	17	12	20
5	RWD Molenbeek	11	6	2	3	16	13	20
6	RAEC Mons	11	5	2	4	25	20	17
7	ROC Charleroi	11	4	3	4	14	22	15
8	Standard Liege II	11	4	2	5	14	9	14
9	Sporting Charleroi U23	11	3	4	4	12	13	13
10	RSC Habay	10	2	3	5	8	13	9
11	RCS Onhaye	10	2	1	7	11	22	7
12	FC Flenu	11	0	2	9	11	32	2

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sporting Charleroi U23	Union Rochefortoise
RFC Meux	2-3 L	3-0 W
Standard Liege II	1-0 W	1-0 W
Union Saint Gilloise II	0-2 L	2-0 W
ROC Charleroi	1-1 D	4-0 W
RCS Onhaye	4-2 W	1-2 L
RSC Habay	0-0 D	4-2 W
RWD Molenbeek	0-1 L	1-1 D
RAEC Mons	1-0 W	0-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 3 L	5 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Union Rochefortoise (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sporting Charleroi U23

WDLDDWDLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	RFC Meux Belgium First Amateur Division	2-1	2-3	3	7	L
25/10	Standard Liege II Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	1-0	3	2	W
17/10	Union Saint Gilloise II Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	0-2	3	6	L
10/10	ROC Charleroi Belgium First Amateur Division	1-1	1-1	4	5	D
04/10	RCS Onhaye Belgium First Amateur Division	0-2	4-2	3	5	W
30/09	RSC Habay Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	0-0	1	3	D
19/09	Union Rochefortoise Belgium First Amateur Division	1-1	1-1	2	3	D
12/09	RWD Molenbeek Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	0-1	3	5	L
06/09	FC Flenu Belgium First Amateur Division	2-0	2-2	1	5	D
30/08	RAEC Mons Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	1-0	3	6	W

Union Rochefortoise

WWWLDDWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	ROC Charleroi Belgium First Amateur Division	3-0	4-0	2	1	W
21/10	RAEC Mons Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	0-2	4	5	L
10/10	RFC Meux Belgium First Amateur Division	1-0	3-0	7	6	W
03/10	Standard Liege II Belgium First Amateur Division	1-0	1-0	3	1	W
30/09	RWD Molenbeek Belgium First Amateur Division	1-1	1-1	5	8	D
19/09	Sporting Charleroi U23 Belgium First Amateur Division	1-1	1-1	3	3	D
12/09	RCS Onhaye Belgium First Amateur Division	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
05/09	Tubize Belgium First Amateur Division	1-0	4-1	9	5	W
29/08	RSC Habay Belgium First Amateur Division	2-1	4-2	4	5	W
26/08	Union Saint Gilloise II Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	2-0	4	8	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sporting Charleroi U23 vs Union Rochefortoise?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Union Rochefortoise win (48%). Probabilities: Sporting Charleroi U23 27%, draw 25%, Union Rochefortoise 48%.

How many goals are expected in Sporting Charleroi U23 vs Union Rochefortoise?

The model expects 2.84 goals (Sporting Charleroi U23 1.19 · Union Rochefortoise 1.65), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Sporting Charleroi U23 vs Union Rochefortoise?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.