Football · Belgium First Amateur Division · 15/11, 15:00

Prediction: SK Roeselare vs KRC Harelbeke

Team pages: SK Roeselare · KRC Harelbeke

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.29Total

SK Roeselare2.39

KRC Harelbeke0.9

1X2

70% 17% 12%

SK Roeselare Draw KRC Harelbeke

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

2-0 11%

Recent form · 10 last

SK Roeselare 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WWDLWWDWWD

KRC Harelbeke 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LLLDLWLLWL

Head-to-head

SK Roeselare 2–0 KRC Harelbeke (2 last)

KRC Harelbeke0-4SK Roeselare
KRC Harelbeke0-2SK Roeselare

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · SK Roeselare 1554 · KRC Harelbeke 1423

	SK Roeselare	Draw	KRC Harelbeke
Our model	70%	19%	12%
Market	71%	16%	13%

Estimated total (ours) 3.29 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours SK Roeselare (rating 1554 vs 1423).
H2H favours SK Roeselare: 2-0-0.
High corners: 11.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	SK Roeselare	KRC Harelbeke
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 0.4	0.9 / 2.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.1	0.4 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	10/30/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 7.3	1.6 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.1	2.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.27

X5.50

27.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)1.80

2 (+1.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.95

Under 3.51.85

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.27 → 1.27	Bet365 1.27
X	5.50 → 5.50	Pinn 6.14
2	7.00 → 7.00	Pinn 9.27 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2% Pinnacle margin 8.9%

Time*	1	X	2
16:03 +12’	1.27	5.50	7.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:12 +7’	1.21	5.87	8.69
18:15 +2’	1.22▲	6.14▲	9.27▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · SK Roeselare 2–0–0 KRC Harelbeke

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/12/24 Belgium Second Amateur Division VFV A	KRC Harelbeke	0-4 HT 0-2	SK Roeselare
04/07/17 Europe Friendlies	KRC Harelbeke	0-2 HT 0-2	SK Roeselare

Standings · Belgium First Amateur Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	RFC Meux	12	8	1	3	20	11	25
2	Union Rochefortoise	12	6	4	2	23	11	22
3	Union Saint Gilloise II	12	6	3	3	22	15	21
4	Tubize	12	6	3	3	18	13	21
5	RAEC Mons	12	6	2	4	28	20	20
6	RWD Molenbeek	12	6	2	4	16	14	20
7	ROC Charleroi	12	4	4	4	15	23	16
8	Standard Liege II	12	4	2	6	14	12	14
9	Sporting Charleroi U23	12	3	5	4	13	14	14
10	RCS Onhaye	12	4	1	7	13	22	13
11	RSC Habay	12	3	3	6	10	15	12
12	FC Flenu	12	0	2	10	11	33	2

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	SK Roeselare	KRC Harelbeke
OH Leuven II	0-0 D	1-4 L
KFC Merelbeke	4-0 W	0-3 L
Royal Knokke	2-1 W	2-0 W
Hoogstraten VV	1-1 D	3-3 D
Dessel Sport	2-0 W	0-4 L
K Lyra-Lierse Berlaar	3-0 W	0-3 L
KVV Thes Sport	0-1 L	1-0 W
Tienen	1-1 D	0-4 L
KVV Zelzate	3-0 W	1-4 L
Record vs common	5 W 3 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: SK Roeselare (6 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

SK Roeselare

WWDLWWDWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	OH Leuven II Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	0-0	3	1	D
30/10	KFC Merelbeke Belgium First Amateur Division	1-0	4-0	4	5	W
24/10	Royal Knokke Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	2-1	15	4	W
17/10	Hoogstraten VV Belgium First Amateur Division	0-1	1-1	10	5	D
10/10	Dessel Sport Belgium First Amateur Division	1-0	2-0	10	1	W
03/10	K Lyra-Lierse Berlaar Belgium First Amateur Division	2-0	3-0	8	4	W
30/09	KVV Thes Sport Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	0-1	8	3	L
20/09	Tienen Belgium First Amateur Division	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
13/09	RFC Mandel Utd Belgium First Amateur Division	1-0	1-0	6	0	W
06/09	KVV Zelzate Belgium First Amateur Division	1-0	3-0	2	6	W

KRC Harelbeke

LLLDLWLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	KVV Zelzate Belgium First Amateur Division	0-2	1-4	3	0	L
31/10	Royal Knokke Belgium First Amateur Division	2-0	2-0	1	6	W
25/10	K Lyra-Lierse Berlaar Belgium First Amateur Division	0-2	0-3	6	4	L
18/10	OH Leuven II Belgium First Amateur Division	0-2	1-4	3	4	L
11/10	KVV Thes Sport Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	1-0	0	3	W
03/10	Dessel Sport Belgium First Amateur Division	0-1	0-4	4	1	L
30/09	Hoogstraten VV Belgium First Amateur Division	2-2	3-3	5	1	D
20/09	KFC Merelbeke Belgium First Amateur Division	0-2	0-3	9	3	L
13/09	Tienen Belgium First Amateur Division	0-1	0-4	10	1	L
05/09	KSK Heist Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	1-2	2	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in SK Roeselare vs KRC Harelbeke?

According to our model, the most likely result is a SK Roeselare win (70%). Probabilities: SK Roeselare 70%, draw 17%, KRC Harelbeke 12%.

How many goals are expected in SK Roeselare vs KRC Harelbeke?

The model expects 3.29 goals (SK Roeselare 2.39 · KRC Harelbeke 0.9), with a 54% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in SK Roeselare vs KRC Harelbeke?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.