Football · Belgium First Amateur Division · 15/11, 15:00

Prediction: OH Leuven II vs KFC Merelbeke

Team pages: OH Leuven II · KFC Merelbeke

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.19Total

OH Leuven II1.9

KFC Merelbeke1.28

1X2

52% 23% 25%

OH Leuven II Draw KFC Merelbeke

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

OH Leuven II 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWLDWDDD

KFC Merelbeke 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WLWDDLWDLW

Head-to-head

OH Leuven II 1–3 KFC Merelbeke (4 last)

OH Leuven II1-3KFC Merelbeke
KFC Merelbeke2-1OH Leuven II
KFC Merelbeke2-1OH Leuven II
OH Leuven II1-0KFC Merelbeke

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · OH Leuven II 1527 · KFC Merelbeke 1508

	OH Leuven II	Draw	KFC Merelbeke
Our model	51%	24%	25%
Market	52%	22%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 3.19 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours KFC Merelbeke: 3-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	OH Leuven II	KFC Merelbeke
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 1.6	1.3 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 0.6	0.6 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.2	2.4 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.2	4.1 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.73

X4.00

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.85

2 (+0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.85

Under 3.251.95

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Pinn 1.83 ★
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.56

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 8.5%

Time*	1	X	2
16:19 +60’	1.73	4.00	3.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:11 +8’	1.81	3.79	3.47
18:16 +2’	1.83▲	3.90▲	3.56▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · OH Leuven II 1–0–3 KFC Merelbeke

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/04/26 Belgium First Amateur Division	OH Leuven II	1-3 HT 0-1	KFC Merelbeke
27/09/25 Belgium First Amateur Division	KFC Merelbeke	2-1 HT 1-0	OH Leuven II
09/02/25 Belgium First Amateur Division	KFC Merelbeke	2-1 HT 2-0	OH Leuven II
06/10/24 Belgium First Amateur Division	OH Leuven II	1-0 HT 1-0	KFC Merelbeke

Standings · Belgium First Amateur Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	RFC Meux	12	8	1	3	20	11	25
2	Union Rochefortoise	12	6	4	2	23	11	22
3	Union Saint Gilloise II	12	6	3	3	22	15	21
4	Tubize	12	6	3	3	18	13	21
5	RAEC Mons	12	6	2	4	28	20	20
6	RWD Molenbeek	12	6	2	4	16	14	20
7	ROC Charleroi	12	4	4	4	15	23	16
8	Standard Liege II	12	4	2	6	14	12	14
9	Sporting Charleroi U23	12	3	5	4	13	14	14
10	RCS Onhaye	12	4	1	7	13	22	13
11	RSC Habay	12	3	3	6	10	15	12
12	FC Flenu	12	0	2	10	11	33	2

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	OH Leuven II	KFC Merelbeke
SK Roeselare	0-0 D	0-4 L
Cercle Brugge Reserves	3-3 D	3-1 W
Dessel Sport	2-2 D	1-1 D
KRC Harelbeke	4-1 W	3-0 W
KSK Heist	0-0 D	2-1 W
Royal Knokke	2-3 L	3-0 W
Tienen	2-1 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	2 W 4 D 1 L	4 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: KFC Merelbeke (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

OH Leuven II

WWWWLDWDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	SK Roeselare Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	0-0	4	1	D
01/11	Cercle Brugge Reserves Belgium First Amateur Division	2-1	3-3	7	4	D
24/10	Dessel Sport Belgium First Amateur Division	1-0	2-2	1	6	D
18/10	KRC Harelbeke Belgium First Amateur Division	2-0	4-1	11	4	W
11/10	KSK Heist Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	0-0	4	7	D
04/10	Royal Knokke Belgium First Amateur Division	1-3	2-3	7	5	L
27/09	K Lyra-Lierse Berlaar Belgium First Amateur Division	1-0	3-1	5	4	W
19/09	KVV Thes Sport Belgium First Amateur Division	2-0	3-2	1	5	W
13/09	KVV Zelzate Belgium First Amateur Division	3-1	4-3	8	2	W
06/09	Tienen Belgium First Amateur Division	1-1	2-1	4	1	W

KFC Merelbeke

WLWDDLWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/11	KSK Heist Belgium First Amateur Division	1-0	2-1	7	5	W
30/10	SK Roeselare Belgium First Amateur Division	0-1	0-4	4	5	L
24/10	KVC Houtvenne Belgium First Amateur Division	1-0	1-1	2	4	D
18/10	Royal Knokke Belgium First Amateur Division	2-0	3-0	6	4	W
11/10	RFC Mandel Utd Belgium First Amateur Division	0-2	0-2	7	4	L
04/10	Tienen Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	0-0	5	8	D
30/09	Dessel Sport Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	1-1	2	1	D
20/09	KRC Harelbeke Belgium First Amateur Division	2-0	3-0	5	3	W
13/09	Belisia Bilzen SV Belgium First Amateur Division	0-1	0-1	9	6	L
06/09	Cercle Brugge Reserves Belgium First Amateur Division	0-1	3-1	4	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in OH Leuven II vs KFC Merelbeke?

According to our model, the most likely result is a OH Leuven II win (52%). Probabilities: OH Leuven II 52%, draw 23%, KFC Merelbeke 25%.

How many goals are expected in OH Leuven II vs KFC Merelbeke?

The model expects 3.19 goals (OH Leuven II 1.9 · KFC Merelbeke 1.28), with a 51% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in OH Leuven II vs KFC Merelbeke?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.