Football · Jamaica Premier League · 15/11, 21:00
Prediction: Tivoli Gardens vs Montego Bay Utd
Team pages: Tivoli Gardens · Montego Bay Utd
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.05Total
Tivoli Gardens1.25
Montego Bay Utd1.8
1X2
Tivoli Gardens
Draw
Montego Bay Utd
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 64%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Tivoli Gardens
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Montego Bay Utd
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Tivoli Gardens
1–1–4
Montego Bay Utd
(6 last)
- Montego Bay Utd5-1Tivoli Gardens
- Tivoli Gardens0-1Montego Bay Utd
- Montego Bay Utd3-1Tivoli Gardens
- Montego Bay Utd1-1Tivoli Gardens
- Tivoli Gardens1-2Montego Bay Utd
- Tivoli Gardens2-1Montego Bay Utd
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Tivoli Gardens 1474 · Montego Bay Utd 1529
| Tivoli Gardens | Draw | Montego Bay Utd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 25% | 25% | 49% |
| Market | 26% | 25% | 50% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.05 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Montego Bay Utd (rating 1474 vs 1529).
- H2H favours Montego Bay Utd: 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Tivoli Gardens | Montego Bay Utd | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 1.4 | 1.6 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.8 | 1 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/30/30% | 60/30/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.8 / 4.9 | 2.1 / 4.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.3 / 0.1 | 3.5 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Tivoli Gardens 1–1–4 Montego Bay Utd
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/04/26 Jamaica Premier League | Montego Bay Utd | 5-1 HT 3-1 | Tivoli Gardens |
| 15/01/26 Jamaica Premier League | Tivoli Gardens | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Montego Bay Utd |
| 15/09/25 Jamaica Premier League | Montego Bay Utd | 3-1 HT 3-0 | Tivoli Gardens |
| 13/05/25 Jamaica Play-Offs | Montego Bay Utd | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Tivoli Gardens |
| 10/05/25 Jamaica Play-Offs | Tivoli Gardens | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Montego Bay Utd |
| 04/05/25 Jamaica Premier League | Tivoli Gardens | 2-1 HT 2-1 | Montego Bay Utd |
Standings · Jamaica Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tru-Juice FC | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 18 | 4 | 20 |
| 2 | Waterhouse | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 19 | 4 | 18 |
| 3 | Racing United FC | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 11 | 17 |
| 4 | Montego Bay Utd | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 14 | 9 | 16 |
| 5 | Mount Pleasant FA | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 10 | 14 |
| 6 | Arnett Gardens | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 17 | 12 | 13 |
| 7 | Cavalier | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 11 | 13 |
| 8 | Tivoli Gardens | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 11 | 12 |
| 9 | Portmore United | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 11 | 7 | 10 |
| 10 | Chapelton Maroons FC | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 10 |
| 11 | Dunbeholden FC | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 14 | 7 |
| 12 | Molynes United FC | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 20 | 7 |
| 13 | Treasure Beach FC | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 19 | 6 |
| 14 | Humble Lions | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 25 | 2 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Tivoli Gardens | Montego Bay Utd |
|---|---|---|
| Mount Pleasant FA | 1-2 L | 1-2 L |
| Arnett Gardens | 1-1 D | 2-2 D |
| Cavalier | 1-2 L | 3-1 W |
| Dunbeholden FC | 3-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Racing United FC | 3-4 L | 1-0 W |
| Tru-Juice FC | 2-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Chapelton Maroons FC | 1-1 D | 2-0 W |
| Portmore United | 0-3 L | 2-2 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 4 L | 4 W 3 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Montego Bay Utd (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Tivoli Gardens
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11 | Mount Pleasant FA Jamaica Premier League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 01/11 | Arnett Gardens Jamaica Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 25/10 | Cavalier Jamaica Premier League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 8 | L |
| 18/10 | Dunbeholden FC Jamaica Premier League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 13/10 | Racing United FC Jamaica Premier League |
2-3 | 3-4 | 6 | 9 | L |
| 04/10 | Tru-Juice FC Jamaica Premier League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 27/09 | Chapelton Maroons FC Jamaica Premier League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 20/09 | Treasure Beach FC Jamaica Premier League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 13/09 | Humble Lions Jamaica Premier League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 9 | 6 | W |
| 06/05 | Portmore United Jamaica Premier League |
0-2 | 0-3 | – | – | L |
Montego Bay Utd
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11 | Molynes United FC Jamaica Premier League |
2-2 | 2-2 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 01/11 | Portmore United Jamaica Premier League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 27/10 | Mount Pleasant FA Jamaica Premier League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 18/10 | Arnett Gardens Jamaica Premier League |
1-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 11/10 | Cavalier Jamaica Premier League |
2-0 | 3-1 | 11 | 3 | W |
| 04/10 | Dunbeholden FC Jamaica Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 28/09 | Racing United FC Jamaica Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 20/09 | Tru-Juice FC Jamaica Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 13/09 | Chapelton Maroons FC Jamaica Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 25/05 | Mount Pleasant FA Jamaica Premier League |
0-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Tivoli Gardens vs Montego Bay Utd?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Montego Bay Utd win (50%). Probabilities: Tivoli Gardens 25%, draw 25%, Montego Bay Utd 50%.
How many goals are expected in Tivoli Gardens vs Montego Bay Utd?
The model expects 3.05 goals (Tivoli Gardens 1.25 · Montego Bay Utd 1.8), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Tivoli Gardens vs Montego Bay Utd?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.