Football · Jamaica Premier League · 15/11, 21:00
Prediction: Cavalier vs Treasure Beach FC
Team pages: Cavalier · Treasure Beach FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.69Total
Cavalier1.82
Treasure Beach FC0.88
1X2
Cavalier
Draw
Treasure Beach FC
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Cavalier
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Treasure Beach FC
1-3-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Cavalier
4–1–0
Treasure Beach FC
(5 last)
- Treasure Beach FC0-1Cavalier
- Treasure Beach FC1-1Cavalier
- Cavalier2-1Treasure Beach FC
- Treasure Beach FC0-5Cavalier
- Cavalier1-0Treasure Beach FC
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Cavalier 1490 · Treasure Beach FC 1430
| Cavalier | Draw | Treasure Beach FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 25% | 17% |
| Market | 60% | 22% | 18% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.69 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Cavalier (rating 1490 vs 1430).
- H2H favours Cavalier: 4-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Cavalier | Treasure Beach FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 1.4 | 0.9 / 2.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.8 | 0.6 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 20/60/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.4 / 4.1 | 2.6 / 4.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.4 / 0.4 | 3.8 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Cavalier 4–1–0 Treasure Beach FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/03/26 Jamaica Premier League | Treasure Beach FC | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Cavalier |
| 25/02/26 Jamaica Premier League | Treasure Beach FC | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Cavalier |
| 21/09/25 Jamaica Premier League | Cavalier | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Treasure Beach FC |
| 24/03/24 Jamaica Premier League | Treasure Beach FC | 0-5 HT 0-3 | Cavalier |
| 27/12/23 Jamaica Premier League | Cavalier | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Treasure Beach FC |
Standings · Jamaica Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tru-Juice FC | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 18 | 4 | 20 |
| 2 | Waterhouse | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 19 | 4 | 18 |
| 3 | Racing United FC | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 11 | 17 |
| 4 | Montego Bay Utd | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 14 | 9 | 16 |
| 5 | Mount Pleasant FA | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 10 | 14 |
| 6 | Arnett Gardens | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 17 | 12 | 13 |
| 7 | Cavalier | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 11 | 13 |
| 8 | Tivoli Gardens | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 11 | 12 |
| 9 | Portmore United | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 11 | 7 | 10 |
| 10 | Chapelton Maroons FC | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 10 |
| 11 | Dunbeholden FC | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 14 | 7 |
| 12 | Molynes United FC | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 20 | 7 |
| 13 | Treasure Beach FC | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 19 | 6 |
| 14 | Humble Lions | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 25 | 2 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Cavalier | Treasure Beach FC |
|---|---|---|
| Waterhouse | 1-2 L | 0-2 L |
| Tivoli Gardens | 2-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Molynes United FC | 0-1 L | 2-3 L |
| Dunbeholden FC | 2-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Portmore United | 2-2 D | 0-2 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 2 L | 0 W 2 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Cavalier (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Cavalier
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/11 | Waterhouse Jamaica Premier League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 0 | 6 | L |
| 25/10 | Tivoli Gardens Jamaica Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 9 | 8 | W |
| 20/10 | Molynes United FC Jamaica Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 11/10 | Montego Bay Utd Jamaica Premier League |
0-2 | 1-3 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 05/10 | Mount Pleasant FA Jamaica Premier League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 27/09 | Arnett Gardens Jamaica Premier League |
2-1 | 3-2 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 13/09 | Dunbeholden FC Jamaica Premier League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 25/05 | Portmore United Jamaica Premier League |
2-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 21/05 | Montego Bay Utd Jamaica Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 18/05 | Montego Bay Utd Jamaica Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 4 | L |
Treasure Beach FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11 | Dunbeholden FC Jamaica Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 2 | D |
| 05/11 | Portmore United Jamaica Premier League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 01/11 | Racing United FC Jamaica Premier League |
2-2 | 4-3 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 25/10 | Tru-Juice FC Jamaica Premier League |
0-2 | 0-5 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 18/10 | Chapelton Maroons FC Jamaica Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 04/10 | Humble Lions Jamaica Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 28/09 | Waterhouse Jamaica Premier League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 20/09 | Tivoli Gardens Jamaica Premier League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 6 | D |
| 15/09 | Molynes United FC Jamaica Premier League |
2-1 | 2-3 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 06/05 | Molynes United FC Jamaica Premier League |
0-0 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Cavalier vs Treasure Beach FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Cavalier win (59%). Probabilities: Cavalier 59%, draw 23%, Treasure Beach FC 17%.
How many goals are expected in Cavalier vs Treasure Beach FC?
The model expects 2.69 goals (Cavalier 1.82 · Treasure Beach FC 0.88), with a 57% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Cavalier vs Treasure Beach FC?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.