Football · Mali Premiere Division · 07/11, 17:00
Prediction: US Bougouba vs AS Bakaridjan
Team pages: AS Bakaridjan
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.4Total
US Bougouba1.2
AS Bakaridjan1.2
1X2
US Bougouba
Draw
AS Bakaridjan
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
US Bougouba
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
AS Bakaridjan
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
US Bougouba
1–2–3
AS Bakaridjan
(6 last)
- AS Bakaridjan4-1US Bougouba
- US Bougouba1-1AS Bakaridjan
- US Bougouba0-2AS Bakaridjan
- AS Bakaridjan1-1US Bougouba
- AS Bakaridjan2-0US Bougouba
- AS Bakaridjan0-1US Bougouba
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · US Bougouba 1430 · AS Bakaridjan 1497
| US Bougouba | Draw | AS Bakaridjan | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 35% | 30% | 35% |
| Market | 35% | 31% | 35% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.4 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours AS Bakaridjan (rating 1430 vs 1497).
- H2H favours AS Bakaridjan: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| US Bougouba | AS Bakaridjan | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 2 | 1.2 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 1 | 0.6 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 14/71/14% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.5 / 3 | 2.3 / 3.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4 / 0.1 | 3.8 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · US Bougouba 1–2–3 AS Bakaridjan
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/06/26 Mali Premiere Division | AS Bakaridjan | 4-1 HT 4-0 | US Bougouba |
| 31/05/26 Mali Premiere Division | US Bougouba | 1-1 HT 1-1 | AS Bakaridjan |
| 07/02/26 Mali Premiere Division | US Bougouba | 0-2 | AS Bakaridjan |
| 20/01/26 Mali Premiere Division | AS Bakaridjan | 1-1 HT 1-1 | US Bougouba |
| 13/06/25 Mali Premiere Division | AS Bakaridjan | 2-0 HT 1-0 | US Bougouba |
| 18/03/25 Mali Premiere Division | AS Bakaridjan | 0-1 HT 0-0 | US Bougouba |
Standings · Mali Premiere Division
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Binga FC | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| 2 | Derby Academie | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 3 | AS Bakaridjan | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 | Stade Malien | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Afrique Football Elite | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| 6 | CS Bamako | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 7 | AS Kayes | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 7 | Djoliba AC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 7 | FC Diarra | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 7 | Onze Créateurs | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 7 | US Bougouba | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | AS Korofina | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| 13 | Real Bamako | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 14 | USFAS Bamako | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | US Bougouba | AS Bakaridjan |
|---|---|---|
| Real Bamako | 0-4 L | 1-1 D |
| FC Diarra | 2-6 L | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 0 W 0 D 2 L | 0 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: AS Bakaridjan (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
US Bougouba
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | AS Kayes Mali Premiere Division |
– | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 14/06 | AS Bakaridjan Mali Premiere Division |
0-4 | 1-4 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 13/06 | Real Bamako Mali Premiere Division |
– | 0-4 | 0 | 3 | L |
| 09/06 | FC Diarra Mali Premiere Division |
2-2 | 2-6 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 09/06 | USFAS Bamako Mali Premiere Division |
– | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 05/06 | Binga FC Mali Premiere Division |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 04/06 | Mali Coura Mali Premiere Division |
0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 31/05 | AS Bakaridjan Mali Premiere Division |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 31/05 | Derby Academie Mali Premiere Division |
1-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 25/05 | USFAS Bamako Mali Premiere Division |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 6 | W |
AS Bakaridjan
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | Afrique Football Elite Mali Premiere Division |
0-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 14/06 | US Bougouba Mali Premiere Division |
4-0 | 4-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 10/06 | Onze Créateurs Mali Premiere Division |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | D |
| 04/06 | Stade Malien Mali Premiere Division |
0-2 | 0-2 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 31/05 | US Bougouba Mali Premiere Division |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 25/05 | Djoliba AC Mali Premiere Division |
0-0 | 0-3 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 19/05 | Afrique Football Elite Mali Premiere Division |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 13/05 | AS Korofina Mali Premiere Division |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 24/04 | Real Bamako Mali Premiere Division |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 16/04 | FC Diarra Mali Premiere Division |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 2 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in US Bougouba vs AS Bakaridjan?
According to our model, the most likely result is a US Bougouba win (35%). Probabilities: US Bougouba 35%, draw 31%, AS Bakaridjan 35%.
How many goals are expected in US Bougouba vs AS Bakaridjan?
The model expects 2.4 goals (US Bougouba 1.2 · AS Bakaridjan 1.2), with a 53% chance of over 2 goals.
Will both teams score in US Bougouba vs AS Bakaridjan?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.