Football · Mali Premiere Division · 14/11, 17:00

Prediction: Afrique Football Elite vs US Bougouba

Team pages: Afrique Football Elite · US Bougouba

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.25Total

Afrique Football Elite1.2

US Bougouba1.05

1X2

38% 32% 30%

Afrique Football Elite Draw US Bougouba

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Afrique Football Elite 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

DLLLLDWWLW

US Bougouba 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LDLWWLLLDD

Head-to-head

Afrique Football Elite 1–3–2 US Bougouba (6 last)

US Bougouba0-0Afrique Football Elite
Afrique Football Elite0-1US Bougouba
Afrique Football Elite3-0US Bougouba
US Bougouba2-0Afrique Football Elite
US Bougouba0-0Afrique Football Elite
US Bougouba1-1Afrique Football Elite

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Afrique Football Elite 1470 · US Bougouba 1435

	Afrique Football Elite	Draw	US Bougouba
Our model	38%	31%	30%
Market	38%	32%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.25 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours US Bougouba: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Afrique Football Elite	US Bougouba
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.6	0.8 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.8	0.6 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	22/22/56%	14/71/14%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 4.8	3 / 3.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0.1	3.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.38

X2.80

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.05

2 (+0.25)1.75

Line ⓘ

Over 22.05

Under 21.75

Diff.: 0.85 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.38 → 2.38	Bet365 2.38
X	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80
2	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
13:58 +16’	2.38	2.80	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Afrique Football Elite 1–3–2 US Bougouba

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/04/26 Mali Premiere Division	US Bougouba	0-0 HT 0-0	Afrique Football Elite
07/03/26 Mali Premiere Division	Afrique Football Elite	0-1 HT 0-1	US Bougouba
19/12/25 Mali Premiere Division	Afrique Football Elite	3-0 HT 1-0	US Bougouba
29/11/25 Mali Premiere Division	US Bougouba	2-0 HT 2-0	Afrique Football Elite
05/05/25 Mali Premiere Division	US Bougouba	0-0 HT 0-0	Afrique Football Elite
20/04/25 Mali Premiere Division	US Bougouba	1-1 HT 1-0	Afrique Football Elite

Standings · Mali Premiere Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Stade Malien	3	2	1	0	2	0	7
2	Derby Academie	2	2	0	0	6	3	6
3	US Bougouba	3	1	2	0	2	0	5
4	CS Bamako	3	1	2	0	3	2	5
5	Binga FC	2	1	1	0	3	1	4
6	Djoliba AC	2	1	1	0	2	0	4
7	AS Bakaridjan	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
7	Real Bamako	3	1	1	1	2	1	4
9	Afrique Football Elite	3	1	0	2	3	5	3
10	Onze Créateurs	3	0	2	1	0	2	2
11	AS Korofina	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
12	FC Diarra	2	0	1	1	0	1	1
13	AS Kayes	3	0	1	2	1	5	1
14	USFAS Bamako	3	0	0	3	2	6	0

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Afrique Football Elite	US Bougouba
USFAS Bamako	2-1 W	2-1 W
AS Bakaridjan	1-2 L	0-0 D
Derby Academie	2-1 W	1-2 L
Real Bamako	0-0 D	0-4 L
FC Diarra	0-1 L	2-6 L
Binga FC	0-1 L	1-0 W
Mali Coura	1-1 D	0-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 3 L	2 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Afrique Football Elite (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Afrique Football Elite

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/11	USFAS Bamako Mali Premiere Division	0-1	2-1	4	4	W
01/11	AS Bakaridjan Mali Premiere Division	1-0	1-2	5	5	L
14/06	Derby Academie Mali Premiere Division	0-1	2-1	2	0	W
10/06	AS Korofina Mali Premiere Division	3-1	5-3	3	0	W
05/06	Real Bamako Mali Premiere Division	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
02/06	FC Diarra Mali Premiere Division	0-0	0-1	7	4	L
24/05	Binga FC Mali Premiere Division	0-1	0-1	4	1	L
19/05	AS Bakaridjan Mali Premiere Division	0-1	0-3	7	6	L
10/05	USFAS Bamako Mali Premiere Division	1-2	2-3	–	–	L
02/05	Mali Coura Mali Premiere Division	–	1-1	–	–	D

US Bougouba

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	AS Bakaridjan Mali Premiere Division	0-0	0-0	9	5	D
31/10	AS Kayes Mali Premiere Division	–	0-0	–	–	D
14/06	AS Bakaridjan Mali Premiere Division	0-4	1-4	7	4	L
13/06	Real Bamako Mali Premiere Division	–	0-4	0	3	L
09/06	FC Diarra Mali Premiere Division	2-2	2-6	1	0	L
09/06	USFAS Bamako Mali Premiere Division	–	2-1	–	–	W
05/06	Binga FC Mali Premiere Division	0-0	1-0	1	5	W
04/06	Mali Coura Mali Premiere Division	0-0	0-2	2	7	L
31/05	AS Bakaridjan Mali Premiere Division	1-1	1-1	5	3	D
31/05	Derby Academie Mali Premiere Division	1-0	1-2	2	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Afrique Football Elite vs US Bougouba?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Afrique Football Elite win (38%). Probabilities: Afrique Football Elite 38%, draw 32%, US Bougouba 30%.

How many goals are expected in Afrique Football Elite vs US Bougouba?

The model expects 2.25 goals (Afrique Football Elite 1.2 · US Bougouba 1.05), with a 50% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Afrique Football Elite vs US Bougouba?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.