Football · Mali Premiere Division · 16/11, 17:00

Prediction: FC Diarra vs AS Korofina

Team pages: FC Diarra · AS Korofina

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.23Total

FC Diarra1.3

AS Korofina0.94

1X2

44% 31% 26%

FC Diarra Draw AS Korofina

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Diarra 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WLLDWLWLDL

AS Korofina 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LWLDWWLLLD

Head-to-head

FC Diarra 2–2–1 AS Korofina (5 last)

FC Diarra1-0AS Korofina
FC Diarra0-0AS Korofina
AS Korofina1-2FC Diarra
FC Diarra0-0AS Korofina
AS Korofina1-0FC Diarra

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Diarra 1489 · AS Korofina 1445

	FC Diarra	Draw	AS Korofina
Our model	44%	31%	26%
Market	44%	31%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.23 goals · Bet365 line 1.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Diarra (rating 1489 vs 1445).
H2H favours FC Diarra: 2-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Diarra	AS Korofina
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.3	1 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1	0.6 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	11/56/33%	11/44/44%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 3.5	1.8 / 3.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0	3.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.05

X2.90

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.80

2 (+0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 1.751.75

Under 1.752.05

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 10:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05
X	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90
2	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
10:00 +7’	2.05	2.90	3.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Diarra 2–2–1 AS Korofina

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/09/26 Mali Cup	FC Diarra	1-0 HT 0-0	AS Korofina
25/05/26 Mali Premiere Division	FC Diarra	0-0	AS Korofina
15/01/26 Mali Premiere Division	AS Korofina	1-2 HT 0-0	FC Diarra
27/03/25 Mali Premiere Division	FC Diarra	0-0 HT 0-0	AS Korofina
06/12/24 Mali Premiere Division	AS Korofina	1-0 HT 1-0	FC Diarra

Standings · Mali Premiere Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Stade Malien	3	2	1	0	2	0	7
2	Derby Academie	2	2	0	0	6	3	6
3	US Bougouba	3	1	2	0	2	0	5
4	CS Bamako	3	1	2	0	3	2	5
5	Binga FC	2	1	1	0	3	1	4
6	Djoliba AC	2	1	1	0	2	0	4
7	AS Bakaridjan	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
7	Real Bamako	3	1	1	1	2	1	4
9	Afrique Football Elite	3	1	0	2	3	5	3
10	Onze Créateurs	3	0	2	1	0	2	2
11	AS Korofina	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
12	FC Diarra	2	0	1	1	0	1	1
13	AS Kayes	3	0	1	2	1	5	1
14	USFAS Bamako	3	0	0	3	2	6	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Diarra	AS Korofina
Djoliba AC	0-0 D	1-3 L
Afrique Football Elite	1-0 W	3-5 L
Real Bamako	1-2 L	0-0 D
Derby Academie	1-4 L	2-3 L
Binga FC	1-0 W	0-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	0 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: FC Diarra (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Diarra

WLLDWLWLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Stade Malien Mali Premiere Division	0-0	0-1	2	4	L
02/11	Djoliba AC Mali Premiere Division	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
13/06	Stade Malien Mali Premiere Division	0-2	0-2	6	6	L
09/06	US Bougouba Mali Premiere Division	2-2	6-2	5	0	W
05/06	Djoliba AC Mali Premiere Division	0-1	1-2	3	5	L
02/06	Afrique Football Elite Mali Premiere Division	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
25/05	AS Korofina Mali Premiere Division	–	0-0	–	–	D
22/05	Real Bamako Mali Premiere Division	0-0	1-2	1	3	L
10/05	Derby Academie Mali Premiere Division	0-4	1-4	–	–	L
03/05	Binga FC Mali Premiere Division	1-0	1-0	2	5	W

AS Korofina

LWLDWWLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Real Bamako Mali Premiere Division	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
02/11	Derby Academie Mali Premiere Division	1-1	2-3	4	2	L
14/06	Djoliba AC Mali Premiere Division	1-3	1-3	4	3	L
10/06	Afrique Football Elite Mali Premiere Division	1-3	3-5	0	0	L
04/06	Derby Academie Mali Premiere Division	2-0	2-0	2	5	W
31/05	Real Bamako Mali Premiere Division	0-0	1-0	3	2	W
25/05	FC Diarra Mali Premiere Division	–	0-0	–	–	D
19/05	Binga FC Mali Premiere Division	0-1	0-2	3	5	L
13/05	AS Bakaridjan Mali Premiere Division	0-0	1-0	6	6	W
03/05	USFAS Bamako Mali Premiere Division	0-2	0-3	5	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Diarra vs AS Korofina?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Diarra win (44%). Probabilities: FC Diarra 44%, draw 31%, AS Korofina 26%.

How many goals are expected in FC Diarra vs AS Korofina?

The model expects 2.23 goals (FC Diarra 1.3 · AS Korofina 0.94), with a 57% chance of over 1.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Diarra vs AS Korofina?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.