Football · Mali Premiere Division · 16/11, 19:30

Prediction: AS Bakaridjan vs Derby Academie

Team pages: AS Bakaridjan · Derby Academie

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.19Total

AS Bakaridjan1.14

Derby Academie1.04

1X2

37% 31% 32%

AS Bakaridjan Draw Derby Academie

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

AS Bakaridjan 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

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Derby Academie 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DWDLWLDLWW

Head-to-head

AS Bakaridjan 1–1 Derby Academie (2 last)

AS Bakaridjan0-1Derby Academie
Derby Academie0-1AS Bakaridjan

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AS Bakaridjan 1497 · Derby Academie 1516

	AS Bakaridjan	Draw	Derby Academie
Our model	37%	32%	31%
Market	38%	30%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 2.19 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AS Bakaridjan	Derby Academie
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1	1.6 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.5	1.1 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	43/29/29%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 4.2	4.3 / 6.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.1	2.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.38

X3.00

22.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.75

2 (0)2.05

Line ⓘ

Over 21.75

Under 22.05

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 10:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.38 → 2.38	Bet365 2.38
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
09:55 +12’	2.38	3.00	2.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · AS Bakaridjan 1–0–1 Derby Academie

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/03/26 Mali Premiere Division	AS Bakaridjan	0-1 HT 0-0	Derby Academie
06/12/25 Mali Premiere Division	Derby Academie	0-1 HT 0-0	AS Bakaridjan

Standings · Mali Premiere Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Stade Malien	3	2	1	0	2	0	7
2	Derby Academie	2	2	0	0	6	3	6
3	US Bougouba	3	1	2	0	2	0	5
4	CS Bamako	3	1	2	0	3	2	5
5	Binga FC	2	1	1	0	3	1	4
6	Djoliba AC	2	1	1	0	2	0	4
7	AS Bakaridjan	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
7	Real Bamako	3	1	1	1	2	1	4
9	Afrique Football Elite	3	1	0	2	3	5	3
10	Onze Créateurs	3	0	2	1	0	2	2
11	AS Korofina	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
12	FC Diarra	2	0	1	1	0	1	1
13	AS Kayes	3	0	1	2	1	5	1
14	USFAS Bamako	3	0	0	3	2	6	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AS Bakaridjan	Derby Academie
US Bougouba	0-0 D	2-1 W
Afrique Football Elite	2-1 W	1-2 L
Onze Créateurs	0-0 D	1-1 D
Stade Malien	0-2 L	0-0 D
AS Korofina	0-1 L	3-2 W
Real Bamako	1-1 D	0-1 L
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 2 L	2 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Derby Academie (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AS Bakaridjan

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	US Bougouba Mali Premiere Division	0-0	0-0	7	5	D
01/11	Afrique Football Elite Mali Premiere Division	0-1	2-1	5	5	W
14/06	US Bougouba Mali Premiere Division	4-0	4-1	4	4	W
10/06	Onze Créateurs Mali Premiere Division	0-0	0-0	2	1	D
04/06	Stade Malien Mali Premiere Division	0-2	0-2	2	4	L
31/05	US Bougouba Mali Premiere Division	1-1	1-1	5	3	D
25/05	Djoliba AC Mali Premiere Division	0-0	0-3	5	3	L
19/05	Afrique Football Elite Mali Premiere Division	1-0	3-0	4	6	W
13/05	AS Korofina Mali Premiere Division	0-0	0-1	3	6	L
24/04	Real Bamako Mali Premiere Division	0-1	1-1	5	5	D

Derby Academie

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/11	AS Kayes Mali Premiere Division	1-0	3-1	7	3	W
02/11	AS Korofina Mali Premiere Division	1-1	3-2	6	2	W
14/06	Afrique Football Elite Mali Premiere Division	1-0	1-2	3	0	L
10/06	Mali Coura Mali Premiere Division	–	2-2	–	–	D
04/06	AS Korofina Mali Premiere Division	0-2	0-2	7	5	L
31/05	US Bougouba Mali Premiere Division	0-1	2-1	9	5	W
25/05	Real Bamako Mali Premiere Division	–	0-1	–	–	L
19/05	Onze Créateurs Mali Premiere Division	1-1	1-1	6	1	D
10/05	FC Diarra Mali Premiere Division	4-0	4-1	–	–	W
02/05	Stade Malien Mali Premiere Division	–	0-0	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AS Bakaridjan vs Derby Academie?

According to our model, the most likely result is a AS Bakaridjan win (37%). Probabilities: AS Bakaridjan 37%, draw 31%, Derby Academie 32%.

How many goals are expected in AS Bakaridjan vs Derby Academie?

The model expects 2.19 goals (AS Bakaridjan 1.14 · Derby Academie 1.04), with a 53% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in AS Bakaridjan vs Derby Academie?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.