Football · Mali Premiere Division · 14/11, 19:00

Prediction: Onze Créateurs vs Stade Malien

Team pages: Onze Créateurs · Stade Malien

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.62Total

Onze Créateurs0.52

Stade Malien1.11

1X2

18% 32% 51%

Onze Créateurs Draw Stade Malien

Markets

Under 1.5 goals 51% Not both to score 57%

Most likely score

0-0 21%

Recent form · 10 last

Onze Créateurs 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WLDWWLDDDL

Stade Malien 7-3-0 (W-D-L)

DWWDDWWWWW

Head-to-head

Onze Créateurs 0–1–5 Stade Malien (6 last)

Onze Créateurs1-2Stade Malien
Stade Malien1-0Onze Créateurs
Onze Créateurs0-1Stade Malien
Stade Malien3-1Onze Créateurs
Stade Malien0-0Onze Créateurs
Onze Créateurs1-3Stade Malien

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Onze Créateurs 1493 · Stade Malien 1601

	Onze Créateurs	Draw	Stade Malien
Our model	16%	35%	49%
Market	19%	29%	52%

Estimated total (ours) 1.62 goals · Bet365 line 1.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Stade Malien (rating 1493 vs 1601).
H2H favours Stade Malien: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Onze Créateurs	Stade Malien
Goals for / against (FT)	0.6 / 0.8	1.6 / 0.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.4	1.1 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	11/67/22%	67/33/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 3.4	4.2 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0.1	4.2 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

14.75

X3.10

21.73

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)2.02

2 (-0.5)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 1.751.80

Under 1.752.00

Diff.: 0 · xG: 1.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
13:35 +40’	4.75	3.10	1.73

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Onze Créateurs 0–1–5 Stade Malien

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
10/05/26 Mali Premiere Division	Onze Créateurs	1-2 HT 1-1	Stade Malien
04/01/26 Mali Premiere Division	Stade Malien	1-0 HT 1-0	Onze Créateurs
06/05/25 Mali Premiere Division	Onze Créateurs	0-1 HT 0-0	Stade Malien
24/02/25 Mali Premiere Division	Stade Malien	3-1 HT 1-1	Onze Créateurs
10/02/24 Mali Premiere Division	Stade Malien	0-0 HT 0-0	Onze Créateurs
06/11/23 Mali Premiere Division	Onze Créateurs	1-3	Stade Malien

Standings · Mali Premiere Division

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Stade Malien	3	2	1	0	2	0	7
2	Derby Academie	2	2	0	0	6	3	6
3	US Bougouba	3	1	2	0	2	0	5
4	CS Bamako	3	1	2	0	3	2	5
5	Binga FC	2	1	1	0	3	1	4
6	Djoliba AC	2	1	1	0	2	0	4
7	AS Bakaridjan	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
7	Real Bamako	3	1	1	1	2	1	4
9	Afrique Football Elite	3	1	0	2	3	5	3
10	Onze Créateurs	3	0	2	1	0	2	2
11	AS Korofina	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
12	FC Diarra	2	0	1	1	0	1	1
13	AS Kayes	3	0	1	2	1	5	1
14	USFAS Bamako	3	0	0	3	2	6	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Onze Créateurs	Stade Malien
Binga FC	0-0 D	2-1 W
AS Bakaridjan	0-0 D	2-0 W
USFAS Bamako	0-3 L	2-2 D
Mali Coura	1-0 W	1-1 D
US Bougouba	1-0 W	3-0 W
Derby Academie	1-1 D	0-0 D
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 1 L	3 W 3 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Stade Malien (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Onze Créateurs

WLDWWLDDDL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Djoliba AC Mali Premiere Division	0-1	0-2	2	4	L
02/11	CS Bamako Mali Premiere Division	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
13/06	Binga FC Mali Premiere Division	0-0	0-0	0	4	D
10/06	AS Bakaridjan Mali Premiere Division	0-0	0-0	4	1	D
04/06	USFAS Bamako Mali Premiere Division	0-1	0-3	7	1	L
31/05	Mali Coura Mali Premiere Division	0-0	1-0	3	2	W
24/05	US Bougouba Mali Premiere Division	–	1-0	–	–	W
19/05	Derby Academie Mali Premiere Division	1-1	1-1	4	1	D
10/05	Stade Malien Mali Premiere Division	1-1	1-2	3	1	L
03/05	US Bougouba Mali Premiere Division	2-0	2-0	5	4	W

Stade Malien

DWWDDWWWWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	FC Diarra Mali Premiere Division	0-0	1-0	11	4	W
01/11	Real Bamako Mali Premiere Division	0-0	1-0	8	7	W
13/06	FC Diarra Mali Premiere Division	2-0	2-0	2	6	W
09/06	Binga FC Mali Premiere Division	1-0	2-1	3	8	W
04/06	AS Bakaridjan Mali Premiere Division	2-0	2-0	9	4	W
31/05	USFAS Bamako Mali Premiere Division	2-0	2-2	3	4	D
24/05	Mali Coura Mali Premiere Division	1-0	1-1	2	3	D
21/05	US Bougouba Mali Premiere Division	1-0	3-0	7	4	W
10/05	Onze Créateurs Mali Premiere Division	1-1	2-1	9	1	W
02/05	Derby Academie Mali Premiere Division	–	0-0	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Onze Créateurs vs Stade Malien?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Stade Malien win (51%). Probabilities: Onze Créateurs 18%, draw 32%, Stade Malien 51%.

How many goals are expected in Onze Créateurs vs Stade Malien?

The model expects 1.62 goals (Onze Créateurs 0.52 · Stade Malien 1.11), with a 53% chance of under 1.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Onze Créateurs vs Stade Malien?

The model gives a 57% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.