Football · Mali Premiere Division · 07/11, 19:30

Prediction: Real Bamako vs AS Korofina

Team pages: Real Bamako · AS Korofina

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.12Total

Real Bamako1.36

AS Korofina0.76

1X2

50% 30% 20%

Real Bamako Draw AS Korofina

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 65% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

1-0 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Real Bamako 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DLDWWLDWWL

AS Korofina 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LLWLDWWLLL

Head-to-head

Real Bamako 2–2–2 AS Korofina (6 last)

AS Korofina1-0Real Bamako
Real Bamako1-1AS Korofina
AS Korofina1-1Real Bamako
Real Bamako1-0AS Korofina
AS Korofina1-0Real Bamako
Real Bamako1-0AS Korofina

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Real Bamako 1532 · AS Korofina 1447

	Real Bamako	Draw	AS Korofina
Our model	50%	31%	20%
Market	50%	30%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 2.12 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Real Bamako (rating 1532 vs 1447).
Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Real Bamako	AS Korofina
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 0.5	1.1 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 0.1	0.6 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	13/75/13%	11/44/44%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5.1	1.8 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.2	3.3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.00

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.85

2 (+0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 21.95

Under 21.85

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:40

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
17:30 +10’	1.80	3.00	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Real Bamako 2–2–2 AS Korofina

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/05/26 Mali Premiere Division	AS Korofina	1-0 HT 0-0	Real Bamako
21/01/26 Mali Premiere Division	Real Bamako	1-1 HT 1-1	AS Korofina
15/05/25 Mali Premiere Division	AS Korofina	1-1 HT 1-1	Real Bamako
21/01/25 Mali Premiere Division	Real Bamako	1-0 HT 1-0	AS Korofina
09/02/24 Mali Premiere Division	AS Korofina	1-0 HT 0-0	Real Bamako
05/11/23 Mali Premiere Division	Real Bamako	1-0	AS Korofina

Standings · Mali Premiere Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Binga FC	2	1	1	0	3	1	4
2	Derby Academie	1	1	0	0	3	2	3
3	AS Bakaridjan	1	1	0	0	2	1	3
4	Stade Malien	1	1	0	0	1	0	3
5	Afrique Football Elite	2	1	0	1	3	3	3
6	CS Bamako	2	0	2	0	1	1	2
7	AS Kayes	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
7	Djoliba AC	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
7	FC Diarra	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
7	Onze Créateurs	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
7	US Bougouba	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
12	AS Korofina	1	0	0	1	2	3	0
13	Real Bamako	1	0	0	1	0	1	0
14	USFAS Bamako	2	0	0	2	1	4	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Real Bamako	AS Korofina
Djoliba AC	1-0 W	1-3 L
Afrique Football Elite	0-0 D	3-5 L
Derby Academie	1-0 W	2-3 L
FC Diarra	2-1 W	0-0 D
Binga FC	0-1 L	0-2 L
AS Bakaridjan	1-1 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Real Bamako (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Real Bamako

DLDWWLDWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Stade Malien Mali Premiere Division	0-0	0-1	5	7	L
13/06	US Bougouba Mali Premiere Division	–	4-0	1	3	W
09/06	Djoliba AC Mali Premiere Division	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
05/06	Afrique Football Elite Mali Premiere Division	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
31/05	AS Korofina Mali Premiere Division	0-0	0-1	10	2	L
25/05	Derby Academie Mali Premiere Division	–	1-0	–	–	W
22/05	FC Diarra Mali Premiere Division	0-0	2-1	4	3	W
17/05	Djoliba AC Mali Premiere Division	0-0	0-0	6	0	D
09/05	Binga FC Mali Premiere Division	0-1	0-1	3	5	L
24/04	AS Bakaridjan Mali Premiere Division	1-0	1-1	7	5	D

AS Korofina

LLWLDWWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/11	Derby Academie Mali Premiere Division	1-1	2-3	4	2	L
14/06	Djoliba AC Mali Premiere Division	1-3	1-3	4	3	L
10/06	Afrique Football Elite Mali Premiere Division	1-3	3-5	0	0	L
04/06	Derby Academie Mali Premiere Division	2-0	2-0	2	5	W
31/05	Real Bamako Mali Premiere Division	0-0	1-0	3	2	W
25/05	FC Diarra Mali Premiere Division	–	0-0	–	–	D
19/05	Binga FC Mali Premiere Division	0-1	0-2	3	5	L
13/05	AS Bakaridjan Mali Premiere Division	0-0	1-0	6	6	W
03/05	USFAS Bamako Mali Premiere Division	0-2	0-3	5	6	L
16/04	Mali Coura Mali Premiere Division	0-0	1-2	3	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Real Bamako vs AS Korofina?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Real Bamako win (50%). Probabilities: Real Bamako 50%, draw 30%, AS Korofina 20%.

How many goals are expected in Real Bamako vs AS Korofina?

The model expects 2.12 goals (Real Bamako 1.36 · AS Korofina 0.76), with a 51% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Real Bamako vs AS Korofina?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.