Football · Mexico Liga de Expansion · 12/11, 03:00

Prediction: Atletico Morelia vs Universidad Guadalajara

Team pages: Atletico Morelia · Universidad Guadalajara

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.9Total

Atletico Morelia1.88

Universidad Guadalajara1.02

1X2

57% 24% 20%

Atletico Morelia Draw Universidad Guadalajara

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Atletico Morelia 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WWLDDLWLWW

Universidad Guadalajara 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

DLWWDLWWLW

Head-to-head

Atletico Morelia 2–4 Universidad Guadalajara (6 last)

Atletico Morelia2-0Universidad Guadalajara
Universidad Guadalajara2-0Atletico Morelia
Atletico Morelia2-3Universidad Guadalajara
Universidad Guadalajara2-0Atletico Morelia
Atletico Morelia2-0Universidad Guadalajara
Universidad Guadalajara2-1Atletico Morelia

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Atletico Morelia 1519 · Universidad Guadalajara 1537

	Atletico Morelia	Draw	Universidad Guadalajara
Our model	56%	24%	19%
Market	57%	23%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 2.9 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Universidad Guadalajara: 4-0-2.
High corners: 14.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 11.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Atletico Morelia	Universidad Guadalajara
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.2	1.9 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	1 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.9 / 7.3	3 / 7.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.1 / 1	5.2 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.65

X4.10

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.80

2 (+0.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 5 moves · last 10:01

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.90 → 1.65▼	Pinn 1.68 ★
X	3.60 → 4.10▲	Bet365 4.10
2	3.50 → 4.75▲	Pinn 4.76

See the full journey (5)

Bet365 margin 6% Pinnacle margin 5.5%

Time*	1	X	2
21:01 +2’	1.90	3.60	3.50
23:53 +7’	1.90	3.75▲	3.75▲
02:55 +6’	1.90	3.75	3.80▲
06:59 +2’	1.61▼	4.10▲	5.00▲
10:00 +1’	1.65▲	4.10	4.75▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
10:57 +6’	1.68	4.03	4.76

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Atletico Morelia 2–0–4 Universidad Guadalajara

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/09/26 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Atletico Morelia	2-0 HT 1-0	Universidad Guadalajara
05/04/26 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Universidad Guadalajara	2-0 HT 1-0	Atletico Morelia
27/10/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Atletico Morelia	2-3 HT 2-1	Universidad Guadalajara
11/05/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Universidad Guadalajara	2-0 HT 0-0	Atletico Morelia
04/05/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Atletico Morelia	2-0 HT 1-0	Universidad Guadalajara
21/03/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Universidad Guadalajara	2-1 HT 1-0	Atletico Morelia

Standings · Mexico Liga de Expansion

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Club Atletico La Paz	15	9	3	3	36	18	30
2	Universidad Guadalajara	15	9	3	3	34	20	30
3	Atletico Morelia	15	8	2	5	26	19	26
4	Piratas	15	7	4	4	27	15	25
5	Cancun FC	15	7	4	4	28	18	25
6	Venados FC	15	7	4	4	31	25	25
7	Alacranes de Durango	15	7	3	5	21	15	24
8	Tlaxcala FC	15	6	4	5	29	27	22
9	Oaxaca	15	7	1	7	15	25	22
10	Mineros de Zacatecas	15	5	3	7	26	26	18
11	Tapatio	15	5	3	7	25	28	18
12	Correcaminos	15	4	5	6	21	24	17
13	Dorados	15	4	4	7	23	32	16
14	Jaiba Brava	15	4	3	8	15	25	15
15	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	15	3	5	7	17	24	14
16	Tepatitlan FC	15	2	1	12	11	44	7

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Atletico Morelia	Universidad Guadalajara
Venados FC	2-1 W	1-1 D
Alacranes de Durango	1-3 L	2-1 W
Tepatitlan FC	1-1 D	3-1 W
Mineros de Zacatecas	1-0 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	3 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Universidad Guadalajara (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Atletico Morelia

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Venados FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-1	2-1	9	6	W
05/11	Venados FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-1	2-1	8	7	W
01/11	Alacranes de Durango Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-2	1-3	4	6	L
26/10	Tapatio Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	2-1	6	9	W
18/10	Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	1-2	4	5	L
10/10	Tepatitlan FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	1-1	11	7	D
04/10	Tlaxcala FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	1-1	11	8	D
27/09	Venados FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	1-2	12	5	L
20/09	Universidad Guadalajara Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	2-0	1	8	W
13/09	Mineros de Zacatecas Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	1-0	7	10	W

Universidad Guadalajara

DLWWDLWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Alacranes de Durango Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-0	2-1	3	5	W
06/11	Alacranes de Durango Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	0-1	4	7	L
01/11	Tepatitlan FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-1	3-1	14	8	W
25/10	Mineros de Zacatecas Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	2-0	6	3	W
18/10	Oaxaca Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-1	1-2	5	10	L
11/10	Venados FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	1-1	6	0	D
04/10	Dorados Mexico Liga de Expansion	3-0	6-3	5	2	W
26/09	Cruz Azul Hidalgo Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	2-1	20	5	W
20/09	Atletico Morelia Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	0-2	4	8	L
13/09	Club Atletico La Paz Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	2-2	4	8	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Atletico Morelia vs Universidad Guadalajara?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Atletico Morelia win (57%). Probabilities: Atletico Morelia 57%, draw 24%, Universidad Guadalajara 20%.

How many goals are expected in Atletico Morelia vs Universidad Guadalajara?

The model expects 2.9 goals (Atletico Morelia 1.88 · Universidad Guadalajara 1.02), with a 55% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Atletico Morelia vs Universidad Guadalajara?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.