Football · Mexico Liga de Expansion · 15/11, 04:00

Prediction: Club Atletico La Paz vs Piratas

Team pages: Club Atletico La Paz · Piratas

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.21Total

Club Atletico La Paz1.72

Piratas1.49

1X2

42% 25% 33%

Club Atletico La Paz Draw Piratas

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Club Atletico La Paz 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WWLWDWWWDD

Piratas 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WLWLWWDDDD

Head-to-head

Club Atletico La Paz 1–1–0 Piratas (2 last)

Piratas1-1Club Atletico La Paz
Club Atletico La Paz2-0Piratas

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Club Atletico La Paz 1577 · Piratas 1518

	Club Atletico La Paz	Draw	Piratas
Our model	42%	25%	32%
Market	43%	25%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 3.21 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Club Atletico La Paz (rating 1577 vs 1518).
High corners: 12.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Club Atletico La Paz	Piratas
Goals for / against (FT)	2.4 / 1.3	2 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.8	0.7 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 6	3.7 / 6.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.7 / 0.3	3.8 / 0.8

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.70

22.80

Line ⓘ

Over 31.85

Under 31.93

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Pinn 2.43 ★
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.3% Pinnacle margin 6%

Time*	1	X	2
16:05 +6’	2.15	3.70	2.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:10 +1’	2.43	3.58	2.71

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Club Atletico La Paz 1–1–0 Piratas

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
12/11/26 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Piratas	1-1 HT 0-0	Club Atletico La Paz
15/08/26 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Club Atletico La Paz	2-0 HT 2-0	Piratas

Standings · Mexico Liga de Expansion

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Club Atletico La Paz	15	9	3	3	36	18	30
2	Universidad Guadalajara	15	9	3	3	34	20	30
3	Atletico Morelia	15	8	2	5	26	19	26
4	Piratas	15	7	4	4	27	15	25
5	Cancun FC	15	7	4	4	28	18	25
6	Venados FC	15	7	4	4	31	25	25
7	Alacranes de Durango	15	7	3	5	21	15	24
8	Tlaxcala FC	15	6	4	5	29	27	22
9	Oaxaca	15	7	1	7	15	25	22
10	Mineros de Zacatecas	15	5	3	7	26	26	18
11	Tapatio	15	5	3	7	25	28	18
12	Correcaminos	15	4	5	6	21	24	17
13	Dorados	15	4	4	7	23	32	16
14	Jaiba Brava	15	4	3	8	15	25	15
15	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	15	3	5	7	17	24	14
16	Tepatitlan FC	15	2	1	12	11	44	7

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Club Atletico La Paz	Piratas
Tlaxcala FC	3-3 D	2-4 L
Dorados	3-0 W	5-0 W
Tapatio	4-2 W	1-1 D
Venados FC	1-2 L	2-1 W
Oaxaca	3-1 W	4-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	3 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Piratas (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Club Atletico La Paz

WWLWDWWWDD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/11	Piratas Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	1-1	8	3	D
08/11	Tlaxcala FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-0	3-3	2	7	D
05/11	Tlaxcala FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	1-0	2	6	W
31/10	Dorados Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-0	3-0	8	8	W
25/10	Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-1	3-1	5	4	W
17/10	Tlaxcala FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-2	2-2	7	8	D
10/10	Tapatio Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-2	4-2	10	7	W
03/10	Venados FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-2	1-2	8	5	L
25/09	Oaxaca Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	3-1	3	6	W
19/09	Correcaminos Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-1	3-1	7	6	W

Piratas

WLWLWWDDDD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/11	Club Atletico La Paz Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	1-1	4	3	D
09/11	Cancun FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-1	1-1	1	2	D
06/11	Cancun FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	1-1	8	1	D
01/11	Tapatio Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	1-1	6	4	D
25/10	Dorados Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	5-0	6	4	W
18/10	Tepatitlan FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	3-0	11	5	W
11/10	Tlaxcala FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-1	2-4	4	6	L
04/10	Oaxaca Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	4-0	11	3	W
25/09	Mineros de Zacatecas Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-2	0-3	7	9	L
19/09	Venados FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	2-1	6	9	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Club Atletico La Paz vs Piratas?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Club Atletico La Paz win (42%). Probabilities: Club Atletico La Paz 42%, draw 25%, Piratas 33%.

How many goals are expected in Club Atletico La Paz vs Piratas?

The model expects 3.21 goals (Club Atletico La Paz 1.72 · Piratas 1.49), with a 51% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Club Atletico La Paz vs Piratas?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.