Football · Mexico Liga de Expansion · 15/11, 19:00

Prediction: Universidad Guadalajara vs Atletico Morelia

Team pages: Universidad Guadalajara · Atletico Morelia

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.8Total

Universidad Guadalajara1.36

Atletico Morelia1.44

1X2

35% 27% 38%

Universidad Guadalajara Draw Atletico Morelia

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Universidad Guadalajara 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LWWDLWWLWL

Atletico Morelia 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WLDDLWLWWW

Head-to-head

Universidad Guadalajara 3–3 Atletico Morelia (6 last)

Atletico Morelia1-0Universidad Guadalajara
Atletico Morelia2-0Universidad Guadalajara
Universidad Guadalajara2-0Atletico Morelia
Atletico Morelia2-3Universidad Guadalajara
Universidad Guadalajara2-0Atletico Morelia
Atletico Morelia2-0Universidad Guadalajara

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Universidad Guadalajara 1526 · Atletico Morelia 1520

	Universidad Guadalajara	Draw	Atletico Morelia
Our model	34%	28%	38%
Market	35%	26%	39%

Estimated total (ours) 2.8 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 14.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 10.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Universidad Guadalajara	Atletico Morelia
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.3	1.4 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.4	0.6 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 6.9	4.1 / 7.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0.5	5.9 / 0.9

Odds Bet365

12.63

X3.50

22.38

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.00

2 (0)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.63 → 2.63	Bet365 2.63
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.38 → 2.38	Pinn 2.68 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.8% Pinnacle margin 5.9%

Time*	1	X	2
13:04 +13’	2.63	3.50	2.38

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
14:20 +2’	2.55	3.32	2.65
15:15 +2’	2.58▲	3.35▲	2.68▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Universidad Guadalajara 3–0–3 Atletico Morelia

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/11/26 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Atletico Morelia	1-0 HT 0-0	Universidad Guadalajara
20/09/26 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Atletico Morelia	2-0 HT 1-0	Universidad Guadalajara
05/04/26 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Universidad Guadalajara	2-0 HT 1-0	Atletico Morelia
27/10/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Atletico Morelia	2-3 HT 2-1	Universidad Guadalajara
11/05/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Universidad Guadalajara	2-0 HT 0-0	Atletico Morelia
04/05/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Atletico Morelia	2-0 HT 1-0	Universidad Guadalajara

Standings · Mexico Liga de Expansion

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Club Atletico La Paz	15	9	3	3	36	18	30
2	Universidad Guadalajara	15	9	3	3	34	20	30
3	Atletico Morelia	15	8	2	5	26	19	26
4	Piratas	15	7	4	4	27	15	25
5	Cancun FC	15	7	4	4	28	18	25
6	Venados FC	15	7	4	4	31	25	25
7	Alacranes de Durango	15	7	3	5	21	15	24
8	Tlaxcala FC	15	6	4	5	29	27	22
9	Oaxaca	15	7	1	7	15	25	22
10	Mineros de Zacatecas	15	5	3	7	26	26	18
11	Tapatio	15	5	3	7	25	28	18
12	Correcaminos	15	4	5	6	21	24	17
13	Dorados	15	4	4	7	23	32	16
14	Jaiba Brava	15	4	3	8	15	25	15
15	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	15	3	5	7	17	24	14
16	Tepatitlan FC	15	2	1	12	11	44	7

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Universidad Guadalajara	Atletico Morelia
Alacranes de Durango	2-1 W	1-3 L
Tepatitlan FC	3-1 W	1-1 D
Venados FC	1-1 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Universidad Guadalajara (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Universidad Guadalajara

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/11	Atletico Morelia Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	0-1	2	7	L
08/11	Alacranes de Durango Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-0	2-1	3	5	W
06/11	Alacranes de Durango Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	0-1	4	7	L
01/11	Tepatitlan FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-1	3-1	14	8	W
25/10	Mineros de Zacatecas Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	2-0	6	3	W
18/10	Oaxaca Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-1	1-2	5	10	L
11/10	Venados FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	1-1	6	0	D
04/10	Dorados Mexico Liga de Expansion	3-0	6-3	5	2	W
26/09	Cruz Azul Hidalgo Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	2-1	20	5	W
20/09	Atletico Morelia Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	0-2	4	8	L

Atletico Morelia

WLDDLWLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/11	Universidad Guadalajara Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	1-0	6	7	W
08/11	Venados FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-1	2-1	9	6	W
05/11	Venados FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-1	2-1	8	7	W
01/11	Alacranes de Durango Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-2	1-3	4	6	L
26/10	Tapatio Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	2-1	6	9	W
18/10	Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	1-2	4	5	L
10/10	Tepatitlan FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	1-1	11	7	D
04/10	Tlaxcala FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	1-1	11	8	D
27/09	Venados FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	1-2	12	5	L
20/09	Universidad Guadalajara Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	2-0	1	8	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Universidad Guadalajara vs Atletico Morelia?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Atletico Morelia win (38%). Probabilities: Universidad Guadalajara 35%, draw 27%, Atletico Morelia 38%.

How many goals are expected in Universidad Guadalajara vs Atletico Morelia?

The model expects 2.8 goals (Universidad Guadalajara 1.36 · Atletico Morelia 1.44), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Universidad Guadalajara vs Atletico Morelia?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.