Football · USA USL Championship · 08/11, 01:00

Prediction: Louisville City FC vs Miami FC

Team pages: Louisville City FC · Miami FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.27Total

Louisville City FC1.99

Miami FC1.28

1X2

53% 24% 23%

Louisville City FC Draw Miami FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Louisville City FC 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

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Miami FC 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Louisville City FC 5–1 Miami FC (6 last)

Miami FC4-3Louisville City FC
Louisville City FC4-1Miami FC
Louisville City FC1-0Miami FC
Miami FC2-4Louisville City FC
Louisville City FC3-0Miami FC
Miami FC1-2Louisville City FC

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Louisville City FC (rating 1559 vs 1507).
H2H favours Louisville City FC: 5-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Louisville City FC	Miami FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 0.7	1.5 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.4	0.9 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 5.4	0.6 / 2.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.1	5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.89

Under 3.251.89

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 18:30

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.35 → 1.41▲	Pinn 1.41
X	5.54 → 5.18▼	Pinn 5.18
2	6.65 → 6.03▼	Pinn 6.03

See the full journey (2)

Pinnacle margin 7%

Time*	1	X	2
17:18 +6’	1.35	5.54	6.65
18:22 +7’	1.41▲	5.18▼	6.03▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Louisville City FC 5–0–1 Miami FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/05/26 USA USL Championship	Miami FC	4-3 HT 2-1	Louisville City FC
14/03/26 USA USL Championship	Louisville City FC	4-1 HT 3-1	Miami FC
12/10/25 USA USL Championship	Louisville City FC	1-0 HT 0-0	Miami FC
17/08/25 USA USL Championship	Miami FC	2-4 HT 2-2	Louisville City FC
03/10/24 USA USL Championship	Louisville City FC	3-0 HT 1-0	Miami FC
02/06/24 USA USL Championship	Miami FC	1-2 HT 0-1	Louisville City FC

Standings · USA USL Championship · USL Championship 2026, Eastern Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tampa Bay Rowdies	30	18	7	5	52	26	61
2	Charleston Battery	30	16	5	9	56	35	53
3	Detroit City FC	30	14	9	7	34	21	51
4	Louisville City FC	30	13	8	9	51	43	47
5	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	30	13	6	11	33	30	45
6	Hartford Athletic	30	10	13	7	35	33	43
7	Rhode Island FC	30	12	6	12	42	33	42
8	Miami FC	30	9	9	12	39	49	36
9	Indy Eleven	30	9	7	14	35	41	34
10	Loudoun United FC	30	6	13	11	38	48	31
11	Birmingham Legion FC	30	6	12	12	40	46	30
12	Brooklyn FC	30	5	6	19	34	63	21
13	Sporting JAX	30	3	5	22	32	78	14

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Louisville City FC	Miami FC
Pittsburgh Riverhounds	0-0 D	2-2 D
Sporting JAX	2-0 W	4-1 W
Indy Eleven	4-1 W	2-0 W
Charleston Battery	2-0 W	1-2 L
Loudoun United FC	2-1 W	0-2 L
Rhode Island FC	1-1 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 0 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Louisville City FC (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Louisville City FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/10	Pittsburgh Riverhounds USA USL Championship	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
25/10	Detroit City FC USA USL Championship	0-0	0-0	6	5	D
22/10	Sporting JAX USA USL Championship	0-0	2-0	9	5	W
18/10	Indy Eleven USA USL Championship	3-0	4-1	4	3	W
11/10	Charleston Battery USA USL Championship	0-0	2-0	5	1	W
26/09	Hartford Athletic USA USL Championship	0-1	2-2	7	7	D
20/09	Loudoun United FC USA USL Championship	2-1	2-1	1	5	W
13/09	El Paso Locomotive FC USA USL Championship	0-2	1-2	12	4	L
06/09	Rhode Island FC USA USL Championship	1-0	1-1	2	3	D
30/08	Detroit City FC USA USL Championship	0-0	0-0	4	3	D

Miami FC

LDDWWWWLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Tampa Bay Rowdies USA USL Championship	1-1	1-1	1	12	D
18/10	Charleston Battery USA USL Championship	1-0	1-2	5	0	L
11/10	Loudoun United FC USA USL Championship	0-0	0-2	3	3	L
04/10	Tampa Bay Rowdies USA USL Championship	1-0	2-1	7	1	W
01/10	Sporting JAX USA USL Championship	2-1	4-1	2	6	W
27/09	Indy Eleven USA USL Championship	2-0	2-0	1	6	W
20/09	Rhode Island FC USA USL Championship	1-1	2-1	0	7	W
13/09	Brooklyn FC USA USL Championship	0-0	1-1	3	7	D
06/09	Pittsburgh Riverhounds USA USL Championship	1-1	2-2	–	–	D
25/08	Charleston Battery USA USL Championship	0-2	0-5	0	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Louisville City FC vs Miami FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Louisville City FC win (53%). Probabilities: Louisville City FC 53%, draw 24%, Miami FC 23%.

How many goals are expected in Louisville City FC vs Miami FC?

The model expects 3.27 goals (Louisville City FC 1.99 · Miami FC 1.28), with a 51% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Louisville City FC vs Miami FC?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.