Football · USA USL Championship · 15/11, 00:00

Prediction: Charleston Battery vs Louisville City FC

Team pages: Charleston Battery · Louisville City FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.57Total

Charleston Battery1.4

Louisville City FC1.17

1X2

42% 28% 31%

Charleston Battery Draw Louisville City FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Charleston Battery 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

LDWWLDWWDD

Louisville City FC 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

DLWDWWWDDW

Head-to-head

Charleston Battery 2–4 Louisville City FC (6 last)

Charleston Battery0-2Louisville City FC
Louisville City FC0-2Charleston Battery
Louisville City FC4-1Charleston Battery
Charleston Battery1-2Louisville City FC
Louisville City FC3-1Charleston Battery
Charleston Battery3-2Louisville City FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Charleston Battery 1527 · Louisville City FC 1553

	Charleston Battery	Draw	Louisville City FC
Our model	41%	29%	30%
Market	42%	27%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.57 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Louisville City FC: 4-0-2.
High corners: 13.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Charleston Battery	Louisville City FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.2	1.7 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.8	0.6 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 7.1	2.8 / 6.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.2	3.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.40

22.88

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.90

2 (+0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Pinn 2.18
X	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.61
2	2.88 → 2.88	Pinn 3.08 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.7% Pinnacle margin 6%

Time*	1	X	2
15:04 +2’	2.15	3.40	2.88

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:36 +5’	2.16	3.57	3.05
20:11 +3’	2.18▲	3.61▲	3.08▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Charleston Battery 2–0–4 Louisville City FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/10/26 USA USL Championship	Charleston Battery	0-2 HT 0-0	Louisville City FC
04/04/26 USA USL Championship	Louisville City FC	0-2 HT 0-1	Charleston Battery
10/08/25 USA USL Championship	Louisville City FC	4-1 HT 4-0	Charleston Battery
09/03/25 USA USL Championship	Charleston Battery	1-2 HT 0-0	Louisville City FC
18/08/24 USA USL Championship	Louisville City FC	3-1 HT 1-0	Charleston Battery
10/04/24 USA USL Championship	Charleston Battery	3-2 HT 3-1	Louisville City FC

Standings · USA USL Championship · USL Championship 2026, Eastern Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tampa Bay Rowdies	30	18	7	5	52	26	61
2	Charleston Battery	30	16	5	9	56	35	53
3	Detroit City FC	30	14	9	7	34	21	51
4	Louisville City FC	30	13	8	9	51	43	47
5	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	30	13	6	11	33	30	45
6	Hartford Athletic	30	10	13	7	35	33	43
7	Rhode Island FC	30	12	6	12	42	33	42
8	Miami FC	30	9	9	12	39	49	36
9	Indy Eleven	30	9	7	14	35	41	34
10	Loudoun United FC	30	6	13	11	38	48	31
11	Birmingham Legion FC	30	6	12	12	40	46	30
12	Brooklyn FC	30	5	6	19	34	63	21
13	Sporting JAX	30	3	5	22	32	78	14

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Charleston Battery	Louisville City FC
Hartford Athletic	3-3 D	2-2 D
Rhode Island FC	1-1 D	1-1 D
Indy Eleven	1-0 W	4-1 W
Miami FC	2-1 W	3-2 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 0 L	2 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Louisville City FC (1 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Charleston Battery

LDWWLDWWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Hartford Athletic USA USL Championship	0-3	3-3	11	4	D
31/10	Rhode Island FC USA USL Championship	0-1	1-1	7	8	D
25/10	Indy Eleven USA USL Championship	0-0	1-0	3	0	W
18/10	Miami FC USA USL Championship	0-1	2-1	12	0	W
15/10	Hartford Athletic USA USL Championship	0-1	1-1	4	3	D
11/10	Louisville City FC USA USL Championship	0-0	0-2	6	1	L
27/09	Rhode Island FC USA USL Championship	0-0	2-0	8	4	W
20/09	Monterey Bay FC USA USL Championship	0-0	1-0	7	3	W
13/09	Birmingham Legion FC USA USL Championship	2-2	2-2	6	3	D
03/09	Hartford Athletic USA USL Championship	1-0	1-2	7	6	L

Louisville City FC

DLWDWWWDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Miami FC USA USL Championship	0-2	3-2	15	2	W
30/10	Pittsburgh Riverhounds USA USL Championship	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
25/10	Detroit City FC USA USL Championship	0-0	0-0	6	5	D
22/10	Sporting JAX USA USL Championship	0-0	2-0	9	5	W
18/10	Indy Eleven USA USL Championship	3-0	4-1	4	3	W
11/10	Charleston Battery USA USL Championship	0-0	2-0	5	1	W
26/09	Hartford Athletic USA USL Championship	0-1	2-2	7	7	D
20/09	Loudoun United FC USA USL Championship	2-1	2-1	1	5	W
13/09	El Paso Locomotive FC USA USL Championship	0-2	1-2	12	4	L
06/09	Rhode Island FC USA USL Championship	1-0	1-1	2	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Charleston Battery vs Louisville City FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Charleston Battery win (42%). Probabilities: Charleston Battery 42%, draw 28%, Louisville City FC 31%.

How many goals are expected in Charleston Battery vs Louisville City FC?

The model expects 2.57 goals (Charleston Battery 1.4 · Louisville City FC 1.17), with a 54% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Charleston Battery vs Louisville City FC?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.